How Assad fell

Over the last year, more Iranian military support has been diverted to Russia, reducing Iran’s ability to supply Assad.

Russia’s currency has collapsed quickly over the last few weeks, requiring more aid from Iran than ever before, which means less is available for Assad now than at any other point since 2011.

Biden has allowed Ukraine to finally strike Russian military targets, requiring Russian and Iranian aid to move towards the frontline in Ukraine. The Russian Ruble has collapsed as a result of this. https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c

Israel has been fighting Hamas and Hezbollah for over a year, but the situation has remained stable. Israel has been unable to rescue hostages and unable to convince Qatar to deport Hamas fighters. The situation in Gaza has been hell, but a stable hell. I do not believe Israel is why Assad fell today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_(2023%E2%80%93present)

However, Israel has been increasing its strikes against pro-Iranian fighters in Syria, which is what Netanyahu is talking about when he claims he is a major reason why Assad fell today. However, in Netanyahu’s address, he only talks about strikes near the border in the Golan Heights. Not everything is clear yet, and there will be more analysis coming soon as the facts gather on what transpired in Israel’s role in the fighting. Not all troop movements are clear to the public; neither is the firepower nor the exact strategy, and it will not remain completely clear for several months as the data is gathered. I expect Real Life Lore will make a thorough video on this historic event within a month, describing exactly how Assad collapsed in only a week after 14 years of war. It is truly an astounding event. There is currently a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, now in its 11th day, which has continued to hold. Netanyahu is claiming the ceasefire is the reason why Assad collapsed over a week. Perhaps, but actual military analysts need to investigate this one. My specialty is political economy. I want to know if the military experts agree with Netanyahu, and it’s too early to tell.

https://www.barrons.com/news/why-has-israel-increased-its-attacks-on-syria-729ec537

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/netanyahu-hails-historic-fall-of-bashar-assad-in-syria-credits-israeli-attacks-on-hezbollah-iran/ar-AA1vu1ld

I believe the main reason Assad has fallen is his support has dried up. The Russian Ruble has collapsed over the last month as their economy continues to collapse. Their inability to manufacture enough weapons for their invasion of Ukraine has caused them to be less able to support their puppet regimes elsewhere in the world. Iranian military support has been diverted to Russia, which, interestingly enough, has had almost no effect in Lebanon or Gaza but an extreme effect in Syria. The hostages have still not been recovered. Israel has followed up now by bombing Syrian scientific and records repositories today. Israel had 14 years to support the rebels in Syria, and they consistently refused. If Syria and Iran are strong supporters of Hamas, why wasn’t Israel involved sooner? It doesn’t add up.

There are three proposed causes of this victory:

  • If the fall of Assad was due primarily to the Israeli war in Gaza, it would have been a steady burn from October 2023 to the present.
  • If the fall of Assad was due to the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, it would have been a relatively faster burn starting in October.
  • If the fall of Assad is due to the collapse of the Russian economy, the loss of territory would be rapid over the last few weeks as Russian and Iranian military support dries up, leaving the Assad regime defenseless.

I think it is fairly obvious Assad has seen his military support drying up over the last month as the Ruble has collapsed and Iranian weapons have shifted from supplying Assad to supporting Putin instead. The increased strikes in Russia due to the relaxing of restrictions by the Biden Administration have necessitated Iranian weapons to move from supplying Assad to supplying Russia instead. Assad has been left relatively defenseless, and the Syrians took the opportunity to depose their dictator.

It is fairly obvious this event occurred because Biden allowed Ukraine to strike Russia, causing a collapse of the Ruble and causing Iranian support to shift from Syria to Russia.

Hard data

The total number of Hezbollah fighters in Syria in February 2024 was no more than 8000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_factions_in_the_Syrian_civil_war#Opposing_forces https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/04597222.2024.2298594

The Syrian Armed Forces had over 160,000 troops in 2024, over 200 times the size of the Hezbollah force in Syria. Hezbollah fighters made up a little over 1% of the deaths from Assad’s allies. For comparison, British soldiers made up around 10% of fatalities from Afghanistan allied troops in the War against the Taliban.

Hezbollah was less important to the Syrian Civil War than the British were in Afghanistan. A minor partner.

Russia donated most of the equipment used by Assad’s army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Syrian_Army

Hamas has very little direct connection to the war.

Israel has little to do with it.

It is clear from the data from the deaths in the war that foreign mercenaries were not a major part of the war. Syrians composed over 95% of fatalities on all sides.

It is evident when we see the equipment used by Assad that Russia was his principal benefactor, with Iran in a distant second place. Syria was a vassal state of Russia from 1963 until this week.

Now, we have to see how the three remaining fronts of the Syrian Civil War can reach an agreement and cease fighting, creating a peaceful resolution to a thirteen-year-old conflict.

I will follow the rest of this story closely and expect a deeper analysis over the next month as military experts gather the facts.

Imagine if Stalin had bombed Nazi records

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-airstrikes-hit-security-complex-research-centre-in-damascus-sources-say/ar-AA1vuqZ0

Israel is deliberately bombing the record repositories of the Assad regime.

This is not what happens when an enemy power is defeated. This is what collaborators do when their crimes are about to become public.

This does not pass the most basic of sniff tests.

Cut off Netanyahu immediately.

Long Live Syria

I had to update this map since the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad has been ousted from power. Afghanistan is green because the Taliban lacks recognition from most countries in the world, is not the legitimate government of Afghanistan, Afghanistan still has membership in the United Nations, and is still an ally of the United States.

Biden needs to recognize the new government in Syria immediately, and the new legitimate government needs to take its place in the United Nations.

The list of Russian allies grows thin.

Let’s hope Syria evolves into a democratic state similar to what has occurred in Tunisia over the last decade. Currently, Tunisia is the only democracy in the Middle East, and I hope Syria will join them in becoming the second democratic Middle Eastern country.

Long live Syria.

Lack of ID part 2

Continued from Part 1

You are an American and you have no identification. You have lost your birth certificate, you are registered to vote, and you have a job. You live and were born in Washington State over 25 years ago. What do you do?

Starting documents:

  • Paystub from job
  • Tax statement from last year
  • Health insurance card
  • Voter registration card
  • Social Security number, but no card

That’s all you have.

You need more than this to get a passport. So you need to start with something more fundamental.

To get a Washington State ID, you need more than a tax statement and a voter registration card. You will need to apply for a birth certificate.

Fortunately for you, since you pay taxes and are registered to vote in your name you are able to get a copy of your birth certificate. You successfully apply for a replacement.

Current documents:

  • Paystub from job
  • Tax statement from last year
  • Health insurance card
  • Voter registration card
  • Certified Birth certificate
  • Social Security number, but no card

You can now apply for a Passport using your birth certificate, health insurance card, and voter registration card.

Current documents:

  • Paystub from job
  • Tax statement from last year
  • Health insurance card
  • Voter registration card
  • Certified Birth certificate
  • Social Security number, but no card
  • Passport

Now, you can use your passport to apply for a state ID in Washington and a replacement Social Security Card.

This is how someone who has a job but has lost all legal documents except their voter registration card can regain their identity documents in the state of Washington.

Other states are similar.

References:

https://dol.wa.gov/driver-licenses-and-permits/documents-proof-identity

https://www.ssa.gov/ssnumber/ss5doc.htm

https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Documents/Pubs/422-177-AcceptableProofsOfIdentityDocuments.pdf

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/how-apply/citizenship-evidence.html

Lack of ID

https://today.umd.edu/umd-analysis-millions-of-americans-dont-have-id-required-to-vote

Seven million voting-age Americans lack any ID to vote, and 3 million of these people are under the age of 30.

The question I have then is how can someone not have some form of ID. Let’s start with a passport, the highest form of ID.

Apply for a Passport

To apply for a passport, you need either a US birth certificate, a consular report of birth abroad, or a certificate of naturalization or citizenship. If you lack all three, there are some ways to verify that you are still a citizen, such as census records. You also need at least one form of a primary ID or two forms of secondary ID from this list. So, to not be able to get a passport, you would need to have never gotten a social security card, registered to vote, never attended a school, not have been in the census before you were 5 years old, and never registered for the selective service. Most American citizens have done at least two of those things and can apply for a passport.

Congratulations if you have a birth certificate, attended high school, appeared in the school yearbook, and obtained a school ID. You have fulfilled the requirements for secondary IDs, and you can get a US passport. This is almost everybody. If you don’t have a birth certificate, contact the state where you were born; they all have processes for you to get a certified copy.

Let’s say you did not attend any high school. You were homeschooled, and your parents never applied for an ID for you. Moreover, you do not have a social security card, and you are not registered to vote. You also do not have health insurance because that also works. 3.1 million Americans between the ages of 5 and 18 are homeschooled, so every year, approximately 300,000 homeschoolers turn 18.

Apply for a State ID

You are going to apply for a state ID, and I’m using the list from Washington State to demonstrate the most likely way someone could not get a state ID.

To be unable to get a Washington state ID, you would need to not have a birth certificate, adoption papers, social security card, marriage license, or selective service card. If you have one of these things, you are under 25, and your parent is with you, you can get an ID card.

Summary

If you are under 25, the easiest way is to get an ID card from your state with one parent and your birth certificate. Other states are similar. Otherwise, apply for a passport with your birth certificate, a student ID, and your school yearbook unless you are one of the 300,000 homeschooled Americans who recently turned 18. If your parents or legal guardian have not applied for an ID for you already without sending you to school, shame on them. From my understanding, this is the most likely way someone under 25 could not have any way to apply for a form of ID.

If you are over 25, bring your birth certificate, social security card, and voter registration card to the passport acceptance facility. Almost every county in the country has a passport acceptance facility. Once you have a passport, you have a List A document that can be used for voting, job applications, and travel. If you don’t have a birth certificate, there are ways to work around it, though the best thing to do is to contact the state of your birth and get a certified copy.

There is almost always another way to deal with almost every inconvenience, like not attending public school or not having a birth certificate.

Continue in Part 2

State misses and matches by year

Building off my last post…

I have my dataset, which has the partisan affiliation of every Senator and Governor in US history. It also has the partisan affiliation of each president in US history and shows how states have voted in every election since 1788.

I just graphed how many states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic Senators have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since the formation of the Democratic Party in 1828.

As we can see, among all states in the United States that have had this political arrangement since 1992, they almost always vote for the Democratic nominee for President.

If we filter it down to states with over ten electors, we then have the following graph:

No state with this criterion has voted for a Republican in any Presidential election since 1988.

As long as people turn out and vote for Kamala Harris, I think this trend will continue.

Reversing this for Whig or Republican-controlled states:

Now filtering to states with over ten electors:

See that uptick in 2020? Those states are Arizona and Georgia. Maine is in the graph with all states.

We will see if this trend continues on Tuesday.

But with this data in mind and ruling out a Reagan-esque election this week… this brings us to the following map using the data from this article:

I do not think Harris will lose New England or Virginia.

Which puts Harris at a minimum of 270 votes.

The remaining states don’t matter in our archaic voting system.

I think Harris is going to win.

Now, go vote and make it happen.

State flip predictors

My theory is the partisan control of the governorship and Senate seat is a good predictor for how people will vote in a Presidential election.

The higher the prediction, the more likely the state will vote for a Democrat. All presidential elections since 1830 are included.

A state gets one point if the Governor or a Senator from the last 6 years has been a Democrat.

Israel is not like Hamas

When people describe the interests in the Israeli-Palestinian War as Israel vs. Hamas as what Israel wants vs. what Hamas wants, they are equivocating Israel with Hamas, and the two are very different. Israel is a country with multiple interest groups, and Hamas is a totalitarian terrorist organization. They are not the same. If there is any chance of a long-term political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we need to break down the different interest groups in Israel and Palestine, or the agreement will fail.

Palestine has a minimum of two interest groups:

  • Hamas, an extremist far-right antisemitic political party
  • Fatah, a center-right antizionist political party

Israel has a minimum of five interest groups:

  • Likud is an extremist far-right Zionist political party that has ruled the region for most of the last 50 years.
  • Other right-wing Zionist political parties
  • Centrist Zionist political parties
  • Left-wing Zionist political parties
  • Arab citizens of Israel

So be careful in how you talk about it. If you mean Likud, say Likud. Claiming that all Israelis agree with Likud is antisemitism.

How 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats

We must get past this Tuesday, but looking forward to the future is important. Seeing the polls now and historic election trends, I think there is a genuine possibility that 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats.

This is the base map that I think will be applicable in 2028. Democrats only need to win Pennsylvania to win. With some investment, Democrats could turn Florida, Texas, and Ohio into swing states, given that Trump only won 51, 52, and 53% of the vote, a smaller margin than Biden won historically purple Virginia. These three states will be in play with a small amount of investment. This brings us to the following map:

If Republicans have to start investing in Texas, they will have less money to spend in Nevada, making it a lean Democratic state.

In such a scenario, Republicans must win all swing states except Arizona. As Republicans become more hostile towards Hispanic Americans and Hispanic Americans are a quickly growing demographic, this map starts to look likely.

If Harris wins on Tuesday and she has a successful first term, as I already outlined in Kamala’s Keys, there is no reason 2028 should not be a blowout for the Democrats.

4 days to go

This is my prediction map for the election. I think Harris has a 7/8 chance of winning.

Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are pure tossups. Arizona will not make a difference. Harris will win the presidency if she wins one of those three swing states.

Giving Trump only a 1/8 chance of being elected on Tuesday.

Trump has a negligible chance of winning the popular vote, which unfortunately does not matter.

After talking to family and friends in Ohio and Montana, this is my expectation for the Senate race on Tuesday. Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are holds for the Democrats. Arizona is a flip for the Democrats. West Virginia is a hold for the Republicans. Texas and Florida are swing states.

The House could go either way. I cannot make a prediction, it’s a total tossup.

Let’s hope I am right.