Political science, economics, data science, and environmentalism
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-airstrikes-hit-security-complex-research-centre-in-damascus-sources-say/ar-AA1vuqZ0
Israel is deliberately bombing the record repositories of the Assad regime.
This is not what happens when an enemy power is defeated. This is what collaborators do when their crimes are about to become public.
This does not pass the most basic of sniff tests.
Cut off Netanyahu immediately.
I had to update this map since the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad has been ousted from power. Afghanistan is green because the Taliban lacks recognition from most countries in the world, is not the legitimate government of Afghanistan, Afghanistan still has membership in the United Nations, and is still an ally of the United States.
Biden needs to recognize the new government in Syria immediately, and the new legitimate government needs to take its place in the United Nations.
The list of Russian allies grows thin.
Let’s hope Syria evolves into a democratic state similar to what has occurred in Tunisia over the last decade. Currently, Tunisia is the only democracy in the Middle East, and I hope Syria will join them in becoming the second democratic Middle Eastern country.
Long live Syria.
Continued from Part 1
You are an American and you have no identification. You have lost your birth certificate, you are registered to vote, and you have a job. You live and were born in Washington State over 25 years ago. What do you do?
Starting documents:
That’s all you have.
You need more than this to get a passport. So you need to start with something more fundamental.
To get a Washington State ID, you need more than a tax statement and a voter registration card. You will need to apply for a birth certificate.
Fortunately for you, since you pay taxes and are registered to vote in your name you are able to get a copy of your birth certificate. You successfully apply for a replacement.
Current documents:
You can now apply for a Passport using your birth certificate, health insurance card, and voter registration card.
Current documents:
Now, you can use your passport to apply for a state ID in Washington and a replacement Social Security Card.
This is how someone who has a job but has lost all legal documents except their voter registration card can regain their identity documents in the state of Washington.
Other states are similar.
References:
https://dol.wa.gov/driver-licenses-and-permits/documents-proof-identity
https://www.ssa.gov/ssnumber/ss5doc.htm
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/how-apply/citizenship-evidence.html
https://today.umd.edu/umd-analysis-millions-of-americans-dont-have-id-required-to-vote
Seven million voting-age Americans lack any ID to vote, and 3 million of these people are under the age of 30.
The question I have then is how can someone not have some form of ID. Let’s start with a passport, the highest form of ID.
To apply for a passport, you need either a US birth certificate, a consular report of birth abroad, or a certificate of naturalization or citizenship. If you lack all three, there are some ways to verify that you are still a citizen, such as census records. You also need at least one form of a primary ID or two forms of secondary ID from this list. So, to not be able to get a passport, you would need to have never gotten a social security card, registered to vote, never attended a school, not have been in the census before you were 5 years old, and never registered for the selective service. Most American citizens have done at least two of those things and can apply for a passport.
Congratulations if you have a birth certificate, attended high school, appeared in the school yearbook, and obtained a school ID. You have fulfilled the requirements for secondary IDs, and you can get a US passport. This is almost everybody. If you don’t have a birth certificate, contact the state where you were born; they all have processes for you to get a certified copy.
Let’s say you did not attend any high school. You were homeschooled, and your parents never applied for an ID for you. Moreover, you do not have a social security card, and you are not registered to vote. You also do not have health insurance because that also works. 3.1 million Americans between the ages of 5 and 18 are homeschooled, so every year, approximately 300,000 homeschoolers turn 18.
You are going to apply for a state ID, and I’m using the list from Washington State to demonstrate the most likely way someone could not get a state ID.
To be unable to get a Washington state ID, you would need to not have a birth certificate, adoption papers, social security card, marriage license, or selective service card. If you have one of these things, you are under 25, and your parent is with you, you can get an ID card.
If you are under 25, the easiest way is to get an ID card from your state with one parent and your birth certificate. Other states are similar. Otherwise, apply for a passport with your birth certificate, a student ID, and your school yearbook unless you are one of the 300,000 homeschooled Americans who recently turned 18. If your parents or legal guardian have not applied for an ID for you already without sending you to school, shame on them. From my understanding, this is the most likely way someone under 25 could not have any way to apply for a form of ID.
If you are over 25, bring your birth certificate, social security card, and voter registration card to the passport acceptance facility. Almost every county in the country has a passport acceptance facility. Once you have a passport, you have a List A document that can be used for voting, job applications, and travel. If you don’t have a birth certificate, there are ways to work around it, though the best thing to do is to contact the state of your birth and get a certified copy.
There is almost always another way to deal with almost every inconvenience, like not attending public school or not having a birth certificate.
Continue in Part 2
Building off my last post…
I have my dataset, which has the partisan affiliation of every Senator and Governor in US history. It also has the partisan affiliation of each president in US history and shows how states have voted in every election since 1788.
I just graphed how many states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic Senators have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since the formation of the Democratic Party in 1828.
As we can see, among all states in the United States that have had this political arrangement since 1992, they almost always vote for the Democratic nominee for President.
If we filter it down to states with over ten electors, we then have the following graph:
No state with this criterion has voted for a Republican in any Presidential election since 1988.
As long as people turn out and vote for Kamala Harris, I think this trend will continue.
Reversing this for Whig or Republican-controlled states:
Now filtering to states with over ten electors:
See that uptick in 2020? Those states are Arizona and Georgia. Maine is in the graph with all states.
We will see if this trend continues on Tuesday.
But with this data in mind and ruling out a Reagan-esque election this week… this brings us to the following map using the data from this article:
I do not think Harris will lose New England or Virginia.
Which puts Harris at a minimum of 270 votes.
The remaining states don’t matter in our archaic voting system.
I think Harris is going to win.
Now, go vote and make it happen.
My theory is the partisan control of the governorship and Senate seat is a good predictor for how people will vote in a Presidential election.
The higher the prediction, the more likely the state will vote for a Democrat. All presidential elections since 1830 are included.
A state gets one point if the Governor or a Senator from the last 6 years has been a Democrat.
| prediction | presidential party | President Democrat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.0 | LR | 0 |
| 2 | 0.0 | LR | 0 |
| 23 | 4.0 | LR | 0 |
| 13 | 2.0 | LR | 0 |
| 19 | 3.0 | LR | 0 |
| 15 | 2.0 | SR | 1 |
| 28 | 5.0 | SR | 1 |
| 4 | 0.0 | PR | 1 |
| 25 | 4.0 | SR | 1 |
| 6 | 0.0 | SP | 1 |
| 21 | 3.0 | SR | 1 |
| 11 | 2.0 | AI | 1 |
| 18 | 3.0 | I | 2 |
| 3 | 0.0 | PO | 2 |
| 27 | 5.0 | Republican | 2 |
| 9 | 1.0 | PO | 2 |
| 16 | 3.0 | AI | 4 |
| 29 | 6.0 | Democrat | 4 |
| 0 | 0.0 | BM | 6 |
| 24 | 4.0 | Republican | 10 |
| 26 | 5.0 | Democrat | 16 |
| 22 | 4.0 | Democrat | 62 |
| 1 | 0.0 | Democrat | 70 |
| 20 | 3.0 | Republican | 105 |
| 7 | 1.0 | Democrat | 152 |
| 14 | 2.0 | Republican | 196 |
| 12 | 2.0 | Democrat | 207 |
| 10 | 1.0 | Republican | 261 |
| 17 | 3.0 | Democrat | 281 |
| 5 | 0.0 | Republican | 362 |
There is a 2/3 chance that a state with two Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor will vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.
This means Michigan and Pennsylvania by this model are predicted to vote for Harris this year.
Wisconsin and Arizona are lean Democratic. That gives Harris enough to win the presidential election.
Georgia is also predicted to swing Democratic.
This is the map where states with both senators and one governor are shaded for the party they clearly prefer.
Harris will win Virginia, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
That gives her 271 votes in the Electoral College and the presidency.
I think Kamala Harris will win the Presidency on Tuesday.
If we take Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin as swing states and say that each of them has a 50/50 chance of voting for Harris or Trump, Trump needs to win all four of them in order to win the Presidency. Otherwise he will lose the election. That is a 1/16 chance Trump wins on Tuesday.
I wouldn’t bet on it. I think many people who bet for Harris in the betting pools will make good money on Tuesday.
When people describe the interests in the Israeli-Palestinian War as Israel vs. Hamas as what Israel wants vs. what Hamas wants, they are equivocating Israel with Hamas, and the two are very different. Israel is a country with multiple interest groups, and Hamas is a totalitarian terrorist organization. They are not the same. If there is any chance of a long-term political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we need to break down the different interest groups in Israel and Palestine, or the agreement will fail.
Palestine has a minimum of two interest groups:
Israel has a minimum of five interest groups:
So be careful in how you talk about it. If you mean Likud, say Likud. Claiming that all Israelis agree with Likud is antisemitism.
We must get past this Tuesday, but looking forward to the future is important. Seeing the polls now and historic election trends, I think there is a genuine possibility that 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats.
This is the base map that I think will be applicable in 2028. Democrats only need to win Pennsylvania to win. With some investment, Democrats could turn Florida, Texas, and Ohio into swing states, given that Trump only won 51, 52, and 53% of the vote, a smaller margin than Biden won historically purple Virginia. These three states will be in play with a small amount of investment. This brings us to the following map:
If Republicans have to start investing in Texas, they will have less money to spend in Nevada, making it a lean Democratic state.
In such a scenario, Republicans must win all swing states except Arizona. As Republicans become more hostile towards Hispanic Americans and Hispanic Americans are a quickly growing demographic, this map starts to look likely.
If Harris wins on Tuesday and she has a successful first term, as I already outlined in Kamala’s Keys, there is no reason 2028 should not be a blowout for the Democrats.
This is my prediction map for the election. I think Harris has a 7/8 chance of winning.
Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are pure tossups. Arizona will not make a difference. Harris will win the presidency if she wins one of those three swing states.
Giving Trump only a 1/8 chance of being elected on Tuesday.
Trump has a negligible chance of winning the popular vote, which unfortunately does not matter.
After talking to family and friends in Ohio and Montana, this is my expectation for the Senate race on Tuesday. Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are holds for the Democrats. Arizona is a flip for the Democrats. West Virginia is a hold for the Republicans. Texas and Florida are swing states.
The House could go either way. I cannot make a prediction, it’s a total tossup.
Let’s hope I am right.
Yesterday, we saw the most significant intelligence leak of confidential military information in the United States’ history.
It is guaranteed that whoever leaked the details of the Victory Plan shared them with Moscow, putting the whole world in danger.
The plan was shared with NATO heads of state and Donald Trump. We know the leak came from the White House.
The people who we can be certain got access to the full plan are:
Other potential recipients of the information are members of the National Security Council.
Besides them and potentially the Chiefs of Staff, no one else needs to know the whole plan beyond what the Ukrainians are willing to broadcast. It is one of the most important and confidential documents in recent history.
The leak of this plan is going to significantly hamper the efforts of the Ukrainian military to achieve their aim of freeing their country from Russian occupation.
Usually, the person who takes the fall for such leaks ends up being some poor enlisted individual who spreads the information to the press. While the person who actually gives the information to the press is absolutely at fault, they never work alone. In any organization of considerable size, information is only shared on an as-needed basis. This is how it has been in every job I have ever had.
If some new intern or private has access to a plan as important as this, somebody gave them improper access. Eventually, that access chain will lead directly to someone in the President’s inner circle who we know saw the plan.
No one else needs to know the full details of the plan.
That’s how it works at my company and every company and government agency I have ever worked at.
Somebody in the President’s inner circle shared the Victory Plan with people who should not have had access to the plan. This is one of the largest information leaks in American history, and innocent people are going to die because of what they did.
We must assume Russia has the full victory plan now. This will significantly hamper Ukraine’s efforts to free their country.
I suspect the answer is Jake Sullivan, given his history of putting ridiculous restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use weapons to defend its territory. He also had a very bizarre departure from his high-ranking position in the Obama White House in 2014 to being an adjunct professor, which was a massive downgrade to his career. That is not a normal move for someone to make and is suspicious. People who are doing a good job do not go from being a major advisor to the Vice President of the United States to an adjunct professor for shits and giggles. It is a major reduction in salary and political influence. It does not make sense unless he was forced out, and, for whatever reason, the Obama White House chose not to do a full disciplinary hearing for why he left in 2014. Nobody else in the President’s inner circle has such a record.
2014 is, of course, the same year that Russia invaded Ukraine. It is the most likely candidate for the event which led to Sullivan’s departure given his actions as National Security Advisor.
I think there will be a full FBI investigation, and even when they find the person who spread the information directly to the press, they need to look at the chain of command and prosecute every single person who gave improper access to such a document.
I do not know for sure if he is guilty… but there is a heluva lot of smoke coming from the National Security Advisor right now. There is enough evidence from his public actions regarding Ukraine over the last 13 years to make him a suspect. He needs to be investigated.
The FBI needs to find the mole as soon as possible. The world’s security depends on it.
Nobody is safe as long as somebody in the President’s inner circle is handing out improper clearance to sensitive information.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Sullivan
In comparison to other leaks, this one takes the cake. All leaks not going through official government channels are technically illegal under the Espionage Act. Sometimes they can be considered the action of a whistleblower, which a lot of people debate about the Edward Snowden leaks. Some of the information spread by Chelsea Manning were of a more sensitive nature, but her sentence was commuted by President Obama in the final days of his presidency.
Most importantly to me from an ethical point of view, no one has died because of the information Edward Snowden and Chelsea Manning leaked.
This leak is much more severe than the Manning and Snowden leaks. This one puts people in danger of getting killed. This leak compromises the entire war effort of Ukraine. This is by far in terms of impact to international security the most severe leak in the history of the United States.
It needs to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.