End this epidemic recession now

America is currently spiraling into a recession, and we need to have effective policy as soon as possible to end it.

This recession is a classic demand side recession. People are staying home, cutting their spending, which is going to cause both deflation and a reduction in GDP. This is going to inevitably cause layoffs, which is going to deeply harm the economy.

The key now is to replace the consumer spending as fast as possible so that businesses can keep people employed, so that individuals can continue to spend money to keep the economy moving. The easiest way to do that right now is by simply sending money out to everybody as fast as possible to counteract our declining demand.

This is why Congress should pass an immediate temporary basic income to every American right now. Every American should get a check, $1000 or $2000, either deposited to their bank account or sent to them as a physical check as soon as possible.

Democrats are wrong that the check should be means tested. First of all, every means tested program will inevitably miss people who should have received benefits. 75% of American households make under $100,000 per year, and our annual median household income is $52,657. The majority of people will greatly benefit from this policy. The key right now to preventing a depression (3 or more quarters of economic decline) is speed.

Source: https://personalfinancedata.com/income-percentile-calculator/?min_age=18&max_age=100&income=40000#results

Republicans are wrong in having it be done as handouts to already well off companies. This will not help our economy.

But, even more important than the economy is our lives. We need to have access to as many tests as possible, and be able to get as many people cured from coronavirus as possible, as soon as possible. The economy is far less important than protecting human lives.

There will be more opportunities to fight inequality in bigger ways soon. The biggest thing will be through making a more progressive tax code, and that is something we need to do, but right now Congress should have only two priorities, and that is to ensure that the Coronavirus epidemic ends as soon as possible, and that our economy is protected. Long term structural macroeconomic policies which we should have focused on a few years ago will need to wait.

End this recession now.

Absentee voting

Across the United States, millions of Americans are going to stand in long lines this year to vote for President, Senators, their Representative, and state and local officials across the country. This has been a tactic used by the Republican party in particular over the last few years to reduce the number of people who are able to vote in areas which primarily vote for Democrats, particularly African Americans. This significantly impacted the 2016 election, and helped Trump win slim majorities (by the official count) in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which gave him the Presidency.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

Most states in the United States allow voters to vote absentee for no reason, simply by filling out a form with their county auditor. The ballot is then sent to them in the mail, and then their vote is counted. This can increases voter turnout by 3% once other factors are taken into account. In states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, this can make a significant difference in the overall election.

Every American who lives in a green state should register to vote absentee as soon as possible.

The easy way to solve this problem is if the Democratic Party does a deliberate information campaign to teach voters about their rights about absentee voting in every state as soon as possible. Every county Democratic Party, and every candidate for every office should have absentee voting registration forms at every event in every green state. Getting voters registered to vote absentee whenever possible will significantly reduce one significant voter disenfranchisement tactic the Republican Party has been using over the last decade to ensure that the voice of the American people is heard.

I am 27 years old, born during the twilight of George H.W. Bush’s presidency. In my entire life the Republican Party has only won the popular for the Presidency once. People need to have their voices heard and the easiest way to do that is to have as many people vote absentee as possible. Millions of Americans, myself included, rely on this to guarantee that our health care continues. Until the Republican Party removes the abolition of the Affordable Care Act from their platform this is going to be the biggest issue for me. The other big issue are the Geneva Protocol violations that the Republican Party has been doing with their control of ICE over the last few years. We need to improve these problems as much as possible, as soon as possible.

As long as one party campaigns to significantly harm the lives of Americans, I will be partisan.

The easiest way to guarantee that Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States is to make sure people are able to vote so that he can undo a lot of the damage which Trump has done over the last 3 years. The easiest way to make sure people are able to vote is to get as many voters registered to vote absentee in as many places as possible over the next 8 months.

Every state legislator, governor, member of congress, and local official in this country should do everything in their power this year to get as many people voting absentee as possible. Simply expanding people’s rights and letting people know about the rights which they already have will make a tremendous difference this year, which will help us flip critical Senate seats, and ensure that Donald Trump is a one term president. the sooner he is out of office, the sooner the State of New York will prosecute him for his financial crimes, and the sooner the people of New York can get the tax money they are owed. It will allow us to end the civil liberty violations on the border, and expand freedoms in so many other ways in the 2020s.

But only if people are able to vote.

https://www.nonprofitvote.org/documents/2011/03/pew-effect-of-non-precint-voting-reforms.pdf/
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2018/07/11/453319/increasing-voter-participation-america/

Updated Presidential Rankings

Ranking of American Presidents

I am only ranking Presidents who have served for at least 365 days. For this reason I am excluding William Henry Harrison and James Garfield who died less than a year before their first term is up, and I cannot rank President Biden yet because he hasn’t served a full term yet.
  1. Lyndon Baines Johnson – For his efforts on combating poverty, willingness to lead the country with his bully pulpit, and signing the civil rights act. His Great Society lifted millions out of poverty. No president comes close to his astonishing human rights record. Vietnam escalated under his presidency but he did everything in his power to end the conflict. He had the ability to get people to do what had to be done. His biggest blunder was not letting Americans know that Nixon was committing treason.
  2. Abraham Lincoln – for his effort in keeping the United States together and the Emancipation Proclamation. He respected the constitution with the suspension of Habeas Corpus. He didn’t free slaves in the North.
  3. Franklin Delano Roosevelt – For his efforts and success in setting a strong foundation for the 20th century economy. He was responsible for the incarceration of thousands of Japanese Americans.
  4. John Fitzgerald Kennedy – For his efforts towards science and combating poverty, and the second best human rights record in our history after his successor, but blundering foreign policy
  5. Barack Obama – For his efforts towards universal health care, ending the Iraq war, and standing up to warmongerers, improving education, environmental regulation, he harmed Social security benefits, improved financial regulation, second most progressive social issues president in history, opened travel to Cuba
  6. John Quincy Adams – For his economic wisdom, respect of Native Americans, establishing colleges, abolitionism, and expanding infrastructure
  7. George Washington – for his formation of treaties and respect of Native Americans. He ranks lower for signing the Fugitive Slave Act.
  8. Thomas Jefferson – For his exploration of the American west, preserving trade in the Mediterranean, and diplomacy
  9. Dwight David Eisenhower – For his diplomacy, protection of the economy, and prophetic farewell speech. He set up the foreign policy blunders of the next decade.
  10. Harry Truman – For his continuation of building the foundation for the 20th century his predecessor built. He is ranked lower for his dropping of the bombs. He helped escalate the Cold War.
  11. Warren G. Harding – for supporting the 8 hour work day, child labor laws, opposition to lynching, and good neighbor policy
  12. Benjamin Harrison – For his advocacy of civil rights, reformation of the civil service, and
  13. Ulysses S. Grant – For his continuation of Reconstruction and supporting equal rights. Corruption was rife in his cabinet.
  14. Theodore Roosevelt – For his valiant efforts in preserving America’s treasures and national parks, he is ranked lower for his interventions in Latin America.
  15. William McKinley – For his advocacy of human rights at home and abroad
  16. Martin Van Buren – his cowardice in face of anti-Mormonism which he opposed demotes him, he kept peace with Mexico, advocated free trade, and opposed slavery
  17. James Earl Carter – for his strong efforts towards peace around the world and attempts to gain energy independence for America. However, he signed the establishment of the NSA.
  18. James Madison – he opposed the national bank which hurt our economy, he started the War of 1812, and protected Native Americans.
  19. Zachary Taylor – For his attempts to set up the Western states as free states
  20. James Monroe – He started the Seminole Wars, did the Missouri compromise meaning each slave state had to be matched with a free state, his expansionist Monroe doctrine,
  21. Chester Alan Arthur – For his signing of the Pendleton Act which put rules against favors, he opposed Mormon polygamy (bad), opposed racism against the Chinese (good), and favored better relations with Native Americans.
  22. John Adams – His largest accomplishment was the Alien and Sedition Acts
  23. Bill Clinton – he passed no great laws and he signed the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, DOMA, DADT, and failed to pass meaningful health care reform. But he balanced the budget and didn’t hurt Medicare, which prevents him from falling further. He was led by pollsters and didn’t lead, he followed.
  24. James K. Polk – He was extremely expansionist,
  25. Woodrow Wilson – For his breaking his promise on World War I, anti-German sentiment, his support of the League of Nations keeps him from falling farther.
  26. Gerald Ford – environmental regulations, strengthened AMTRAK, pardoned Nixon
  27. Grover Cleveland – For racism, opposition to labor, and imperialism
  28. Herbert Hoover – For his obsession with the deficit, protectionist policies, and limited response to the great depression.
  29. Calvin Coolidge – His small government rhetoric and lack of leadership made his Presidency unsuccessful albeit popular
  30. William Howard Taft – for his attacks on President Roosevelt’s environmental policy
  31. Richard Nixon – EPA, improved relations with China, set up AMTRAK, worked against the Vietnam peace agreement which was treason. He entered office and destroyed the economy with deflationary monetary policy.
  32. John Tyler – For his refusal to form a national bank in the face of an economic collapse
  33. Franklin Pierce – For his unsuccessful compromise with the Kansas-Nebraska Act
  34. Rutherford B. Hayes – For ending Reconstruction
  35. Andrew Johnson – For his opposition to Reconstruction
  36. Millard Fillmore – For passing the Fugitive Slave Act
  37. James Buchanan – For his unwillingness to use his power to keep the Union together
  38. Andrew Jackson – For his deportation of Native Americans, and his fiscal policy which crashed the economy.
  39. Ronald Reagan – For negotiating with terrorists to hold Americans hostage until he was President, selling arms to Nicaraguan terrorists, attack on Grenada, and deregulation of the financial sector. As soon as he entered office he destroyed the economy with deflationary economic policy. His negotiations with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan betrayed America, making his administration a literal state sponsor of terrorism.
  40. George H.W. Bush – For vetoing every good bill that came his way and using the United States military to his benefit (an oilman used the US military to defend a major oil exporter with dreadful human rights, I’m sure there is no conflict of interest.)
  41. George W. Bush – For attacking Iraq, destabilizing the financial markets, the PATRIOT ACT, No Child Left Behind Act,
  42. Donald Trump – Made America’s tax code more regressive, constant racist rhetoric, first President to restrict American travel to another country in decades, trade war with China, shutting down the government because Democrats won’t give him everything he wants.

Elizabeth Warren 2020

Roosevelt and Truman refused to prosecute the corporate CEOs who illegally use labor from the Holocaust. Johnson refused to prosecute Nixon for sabotaging his Vietnam peace talks. Carter covered up everything the Nixon administration did by not prosecuting the crimes he committed. Clinton refused to prosecute the Reagan/Bush administration for the Iran Contra Affair and Iran Hostage Crisis. Obama refused to prosecute the Bush administration for the 9/11 commission reports (I’ll write more about that scandal later) and refused to prosecute states for violating the Voting Rights Act.

Democrats have a long history stretching back as long as the party has existed in its current form of playing nice and then getting defeated through illegal behavior in the next election through Gerrymandering, corruption, and back dealing by the Republican Party. Trying to appease brainwashed voters never works, and refusing to stand up for what is right when it comes to the quality of our government hurts every American.

Today Elizabeth Warren announced that she will set up a commission to prosecute the current members of the Trump Administration for violating the law. I believe very strongly in equal justice under the law, and it shouldn’t matter who you are in the United States, if you are on American soil the law must apply to you as equally as every other person (to use the word the 14th amendment uses) on American soil. This doesn’t matter if you are an average citizen, a foreigner, or even the President of the United States, all three should have the law apply to them equally. The President needs to be impeached first in order to have the full brunt of the law apply to them, but after they are removed from office they are just another citizen, and the crimes they committed in office are the second they are no longer President can be prosecuted. Likewise, if someone is on American soil, or an American military base, and they are accused of a crime, the full laws of the United States apply to them, including the protections in the Bill of Rights. Those civil liberties do not stop anyone who is guilty from being prosecuted, they only protect the innocent from being wrongly imprisoned, when they are followed.

If President Elizabeth Warren is going to use the full power of the Presidency to hold the Trump administration accountable for their crimes, which no President has ever done before, and every President since Washington has sworn to do, then just imagine what is going to happen to States which violate the Voting Rights Act, police forces which repeatedly violate civil liberties through excessive force, and every single person who is currently held by ICE without a trial, which the 14th amendment and 5th amendment together very clearly show is completely unconstitutional.

Elizabeth Warren alone has a life long career of protecting the weakest in society in ways which really do matter. Millions of Americans have been able to get their money back due to the law enforcement through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She hits the right balance between stating how she will use the power of the Presidency to make a more just government, but she also has no desire to waste time if a bill isn’t likely to pass through the Senate. While I of course wish we could just go make an initiative which would significantly strike at two major issues confronting our country and make it pass, I literally worked on the most progressive proposal I’ve ever seen, which was Initiative 732, I also learned from that the importance of building coalitions to pass legislation. Dead legislation does nothing. Compromised legislation is like a compromised vehicle.

So, we should have a President who will do everything she can to reverse all of the executive orders Trump has passed over the last 3 years to make America more just. We need a President who has a 30 year long proven track record of strategically moving forward proposals which pass and then significantly help people. We need someone who moves strategically, but who also never claims that we can’t dream big and believes that we should make a world which brings the greatest good to the greatest number of people.

I have never seen a candidate in my life who more closely matches my values than Elizabeth Warren who will also successfully make a major difference by using her political power as President in a way to maximize good. If she becomes the nominee I know she will be elected. She will almost certainly use her candidacy to stump for Senate candidates in vulnerable states, which she did in 2012, raising over $1 million for Senate candidates, before she was even elected. You cannot say the same about any other Senate candidate. In 2016 Politico ran a piece Did Donald Trump Just Hand the Senate to Elizabeth Warren? when she had only been in office for 4 years. No other Freshman Senator could do that in a political piece. It is basically common knowledge among politicos that Bernie Sanders was late in announcing his candidacy in 2016 because he was expecting Elizabeth Warren to run and he would have backed her in that situation. No other politician has so much respect from their colleagues to the point that their allies will delay their candidacy to the highest office in the land because of so much trust.

In 8 years as Senator she has sponsored 9 pieces of legislation which have become law according to Govtrack.

Sanders has only sponsored 7 laws in 30 years.

Her values are pure, her strategy is proven, and I fully believe that if Senator Elizabeth Warren is elected she will have the balance between being effective in her strategy, while having a moral compass which points true, which will make America a more free country. With some major executive wins in the first two years that will give us the momentum to win the Senate in 2022, giving the brain behind the CFPB the first Democratic Trifecta in over a decade. I believe her strategy of making strategic wins against a Republican Senate will work.

I want to see that trifecta more than anything else in politics, and it is only going to happen if we have a President in 2021 who will use her strategy to mobilize voters through as many meaningful victories as possible. She will continue to stump for and support Democratic candidates for the Senate which will work yet again.

If that wasn’t enough, Senator Warren endorses a carbon tax, which is known to economists as the most effective way to fight global warming. Sanders has shifted his stance and isn’t talking about carbon taxes as much as he used to. Carbon taxes are actually not that controversial among candidates, as this Washington Post survey shows, Sanders and Gabbard are the only candidates who oppose it.

If you want a candidate who supports carbon taxes, ending the electoral college, and ending the filibuster, then there is really only one candidate you should vote for.


Elizabeth Warren deserves your vote.

My family’s economic history

I am the first in 4 generations of my family to not become a professional grade school teacher. My grandfather is a veteran. My family fought in Vietnam, World War II, the Civil War, and the Revolutionary War. I work for a state college. You will never find someone with a longer family history of public service than me, which literally stretches back to the founding of our republic. I look at my great-grandmother who was a teacher in California, and when she died, there was nothing left for our family. She had a traditional pension. I look at my grandparents on the other side of my family who have IRAs, and they are quite comfortable in their retirement. Not because of higher wages, but because their retirement has a balance which upon their death instead of going to the billionaires who manage their money will go to their children, grandchildren, and if me, my brother, or cousins have children before they pass, their great-grandchildren. The money they earned will stay in our family for the first time in 250 years, instead of going to the billionaires like my great-grandmother’s pension.

My family has served this country since its founding, and the creation of the IRA is what finally moved us out of poverty.

The Trump Administration’s attempt to invade Iran is pathetic

Say it with me. Iran is Shiite. Saudi Arabia and Al Qaeda are both of the Salafi interpretation of Sunni Islam. There are MANY movements among Sunni Islam, of which the Salafi are just one. The attempt by the current administration to try to paint a connection between Iran and Al Qaeda is patently false and is playing on the lack of knowledge the average person has on religions besides their own. Iraq is one of a few countries which has many Sunni and Shiite, so keeping Iraq in chaos serves the interests of Saudi Arabia and extremist Christians in fostering the idea that religions cannot coexist. This is the same type of bullshit like what happened in Poland under Soviet Occupation where there was massive ethnic cleansing, fostering the same idea which is that people of differences cannot coinhabit the same area.

The religious extremists who control Saudi Arabia want to dominate the world.

That is why the United States is trying to invade Iran. The rest of the story should now be fairly obvious.

We should all do ourselves a favor and learn the basics of all the world’s major religions. This doesn’t mean you have to believe in them, but to understand all of the major religions is clearly an important step to world peace.

The lessons of President Clinton

American history has gone through several major cycles where parties have changed. Parties have flipped which regions they dominate, the Overton Window has changed substantially in various directions, and the impact of both the President and Speaker of the House has changed dramatically over time.

His Presidency also has a lot of lessons for our ongoing Presidential Election on what is likely to happen in 2021-2023 assuming a Democrat wins the election.

When people discuss major presidents, certain names always come up, Washington, Lincoln, and both of the Roosevelts are usually the top names historians list as the most important Presidents in American history.

Presidents can both follow the lead of previous presidents, do various levels of impacts on our policies, and lead major realignments in American history. Our system has the Electoral College which is unique in the world. Such are the consequences of being the prototype.

There have been several types of electoral college maps over history, and how various regions have voted.

As time goes on, parties have various levels of support which goes up and down.
I have written about the Electoral College a lot in the past, but today I want to focus on one President in particular, and that is President Clinton.

Before we understand President Clinton we need to understand the political environment as it existed when he became President. Republicans had controlled the Presidency for 19 of the previous 23 years in American history. Richard Nixon started the drug war, and President Ford did as well a job as anyone could given the legacy he was inheriting. President Carter was stonewalled by congress, preventing most of his reforms from occurring. The real challenges President Clinton faced came from two of our most corrupt Presidents in American history, those of Reagan and Bush. He started with an economic policy which moved money from the working class to the 1%, he committed treason during the Iran-Contra affair, he accelerated Nixon’s War on Drugs, crashed our economy during the first term, and was supported by the media all the way through, through a policy of charm and hiding information on the corrupt actions he was committing which came out later. He spurred the empowerment of the righteous right, and hurt American culture. Bush was similar to Ford in that his Presidency was not wrecked by scandals as much as his predecessor, and a number of good pieces of legislation but he also pardoned many criminals from the administration of which he was second in command. Neither man deserves to be well remembered by history.

The Clinton presidency started with the first Democratic Trifecta in 12 years. This led to many very important reforms, the Family and Medical Leave Act, National Voter Registration Act, Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, Violence Against Women Act, and Federal Assault Weapons Ban. Compared to any congress under the Reagan or Bush administrations this was a monumental year. The most important bill of course was Hillarycare, which failed because of opposition which was well organized to get congressional Democrats onboard. It’s a complex story, and deserves its own article. Despite the failure of Hillarycare, I do believe that it was still a very successful term in other respects. After that session however, Clinton signed into law many laws such as the Defense of Marriage Act, and Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which he should have vetoed.

In terms of long term impact, I think the first Session under President Clinton was a success, and he did make America a more free country in the first two years. His remaining 6 years were an absolute disaster. There were many times where he signed laws which he should have vetoed, and by signing almost everything which came across his desk he significantly reduced his power,  giving Congress basically complete control. This is despite the fact that the Democrats won more votes in the 1996 House election than Republicans by a small margin. If he had taken this and forced Gingrich to play hardball he could have increased turnout among Democratic Voters during an era when the map was quickly evolving.

One important part to recognize about the transition which was happening in the 1990s was the elimination of Southern Democrats. In his first two sessions, the Democrats controlled a large number of seats from former Confederate states.

1992 election results
2002 election results
2012 election results

We have seen a near elimination of Southern Democrats from the House since Clinton came to office, and the parties have established very clear lines which most candidates followed. This is very different from when I was born.

In terms of President Clinton’s actions, I believe his first two terms paved the way for President Obama to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2010, through the lessons learned. It’s failure meant they failed to galvanize Democratic voters and enraged Republican voters so that Gingrich could make his Contract with America in 1994. His remaining 6 years in office were I believe a lost opportunity. If he had vetoed more legislation it would have forced the Republicans to compromise with him, and it would have galvanized Democratic Voters in 2000 showing a clear choice between their two options. It would have also helped galvanize voters in the House elections which would have improved his chances at having more Democrats in 1998.

The real barrier in 1998 was the same as what Obama dealt with, where due to gerrymandering the Republicans were able to pick up a clear majority (over 50% of the seats) with not even a plurality (more than any other party) of the vote. This creation of mostly safe seats benefits rural areas while creating a disadvantage for the majority of Americans who live in urban areas. This significantly reduced the ability of Presidents Clinton and Obama to pass the legislation they both campaigned and pushed for.

We are likely to see a continuation of this pattern in 2023 after the first midterms from whichever candidate succeeds Trump. The Republican machine which consists of Fox News and other right-wing channels is going to push against the Democratic Congress in the 2022 elections, focusing on swing districts. On top of this, many publications pandering to liberal-leaning voters are going to be rattling on about how they didn’t get Medicare for all passed, and are shills because we don’t live in Utopia passed. Jacobin is one such example. Both of these extreme publications are designed to get people who agree with the idea that everyone should have high quality health care and oppose tyrannical governments such as Putin to convince them that whoever wins is not as liberal as they claim and will continue to whitewash foreign despots. The goal will not be to get Democratic voters to vote for the Republican, but for them to abstain altogether.

Now, a few things are different about the midterms in 3 years. Democrats took a lot of important Governorships a year ago, and this is going to significantly improve our chances of having fair congressional and legislative maps.

Current US Governor affiliation

Eliminating gerrymandering in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going to give Democrats about a 12 seat advantage as opposed to the map which Obama had to fight throughout his Presidency. This might make enough of a difference in 2022, which remains to be seen.

Ultimately however, we need to reform our election systems to eliminate gerrymandering, which is what FairVote is working on.

Conclusion

  1. Clinton did a decent job when he had a trifecta.
  2. Clinton failed to stand up for his values as much as he could when facing a Republican congress.
  3. The next President will likely start their term with a divided Congress.
  4. A President facing an obstinate congress needs to stand up for their values, otherwise they risk alienating the voters they need in order to get a majority in Congress or be succeeded by a President of their party.
  5. Gerrymandering can significantly weaken the power of any Democratic President.
  6. Clinton served during a time of enormous political change where the parties were solidifying behind national platforms in a way like never before.

Predictions for the next President

  1. The next President will have to work with a Republican Senate for at least their first session.
  2. There will not be a major health care reform bill in the 117th congress because of Republican opposition in the Senate.
  3. Mitch McConnell will likely continue to oppose basically every bill.
  4. There are several very good potential pickups for the Senate in 2022, particularly Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. If Democrats can win these three states we might have a slim majority in the Senate of 53 or 54 seats in 2023, which will make it possible to pass legislation.
  5. The current Democratic debates are projecting for a fantasy world where they would have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. This is unfortunately unrealistic. We will need a candidate who is able to work with Republicans as much as possible to get good legislation passed, bad legislation blocked, and get voters excited so that we can take the Senate in 2022.

The biggest lesson of all from the Presidencies of Presidents Clinton and Obama is that we need to reform our election system to eliminate gerrymandering to ensure that every vote counts. No Representative should have no serious competition for our seat.

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_presidents_of_the_United_States

2020 elections, 1 year out

We are currently in declaration season for the upcoming elections in 2020. Elections are going to decide state legislatures, several governoships, the entire House, and 1/3 of the Senate. It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of this election. Here are my thoughts:

President

We have the best slate of candidates for President we could possibly have. In terms of experience, we have a former vice president (who honestly shouldn’t be nominated for his foot in mouth syndrome, the only thing going for him is people recognize his name), 8 senators, 3 governors, and several representatives. 

Senate

When it comes to the Senate elections, we need to pick up at least 3 seats in order to have a fighting chance. The 4 states with Republican Senators up for election which the least favorable Cook Partisan Voting Index scores for them are Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.

I prefer candidate who are currently in office, which means they have the opportunity to propose legislation right now addressing the issues of today, and then with that information someone who is able to pass legislation regardless of the political climate will be my preferred pick, such as Senator Barack Obama in 2008 which helped propel him to rival Senator Hillary Clinton in the primary almost out of nowhere. Someone with a powerful speaking voice who can speak eloquently and clearly will be preferred to someone who has a weak stage presence. Someone who has not lost before is preferred to someone who has lost elections in the past.

Iowa

In Iowa Joni Ernst is up for election. She is the 10th most Conservative Senator in one of the most moderate of States, so with the right candidate we have a really good chance.
  • I think Rob Sand has a really good shot if he chooses to run from what I can see. He is well spoken, calm, and will do a good job as Senator. he won in a very close election, and if he continues to do good work as the State Auditor I think he would have a good shot at winning the Senate seat. From what I can see from the PBS station it looks like he is making good progress at prosecuting corruption this will play well in the Midwest. He has a very calm presence on stage.
  • Abby Finkenauer is an advocate for better broadband for rural Iowa, and has been fighting to improve access to health care in rural America. She has good stage presence with a powerful effective speaking voice. and would do a good job as a Senator.
  • Rob Hogg has a published book on climate change, and with a law degree could be a formidable challenger.
Any one of these three candidates would do a good job. I think Finkenauer could win if she runs.

North Carolina

The incumbent only won by 48.8% of the vote in 2014, so I believe this is one of our best shots at winning in 2020. He opposes net neutrality, and is dismissive of the Mueller investigation. He needs to go.
  • Erica Smith has 4 years experience as a State Senator in North Carolina, with a focus on education, expanding opportunities to rural areas, and improving access to jobs. She could win.

Arizona

Arizona is weird because it is a special election with an incumbent Republican who has already lost against the other Senator in Arizona. The opponent who is declared is Gabby Giffords widow, astronaut Mark Kelly, who has a really good chance. Katie Hobbs might run, and she has already won a statewide election as Secretary of State. I think this will be a close election but if the Democrats reach out properly and hold McSally responsible for her support of the detention camps at Guantanamo Bay and voting against accessing Trump’s tax returns, we could have a good shot of taking Arizona.

Georgia

Scott Holcomb  has been mentioned as a potential candidate in Georgia. As a sitting State Senator since 2011 he has worked on legislation which passes which helps victims of sexual assault in a Republican legislature. If he runs, he could win.

South Carolina

  • Jaime Harrison would be a great candidate, but his website is bland and he has no elected experience. He however does have experience leading the Democratic Party, so that can help him.
  • Mayor Stephen Benjamin of Columbia has a decade of elected experience, has experience with the NAACP. He was selected to speak at the DNC Convention in 2016 with an excellent speaking voice. he could be a formidable challenger to Lindsay Graham.

Maine

Sara Gideon, the Speaker of the House, is running and she can win.

Colorado

Former Governor John Hickenlooper is running, and will hopefully win.

References

If we win just half of these seats than we will have a Federal trifecta in 2021.

House

The Democrats are playing the defensive game for the House next year of course. We can lose as many as 17 seats and still have a majority. Current projections put the Democrats with a slight majority in 2021, which should be enough to pass legislation.

Governors

There are two possible pickups in Vermont and New Hampshire in 2020. In Vermont the Lieutenant Governor is a reasonable pick, and if he wins the Democrats will have a trifecta.

In New Hampshire, the mayor of Manchester and majority leader of the Senate are both viable candidates who could win. This will deliver a Democratic Trifecta.

State Legislatures

Arizona

Republicans have a 2 seat majority in the House, the closest margin by percent in the country. All 60 Representative are up for election every two years. The three closest districts were in 20, 6, and 23. 20 is just northeast of Glendale and Peoria, 6 goes from Flagstaff to Phoenix, and 23 is in Northeast Greater Phoenix.

Michigan

Michigan has a 6 seat Republican majority out of 110 seats in the House. Districts 104,38,110, and 61 are the closest margins which will give Democrats control of the House following next year’s legislative election. 104 is at Grand Traverse, 38 is in the Detroit suburbs, 110 is the northwestern most district, and 61 is South Kalamazoo. Democrats need 4 pickups to have a majority.

Minnesota

Minnesota currently has a Democratic House and a 3 seat Republican majority in the Senate. The Democrats have a good chance to regain the Senate in districts 47, 37, 54, 14, 5, 25, 26, and 35 where they won over 45% of the vote in 2018.

Virginia

Virginia is technically having elections this November, but it is part of the same two year cycle, so I’ll discuss it here.
Virginia has a 2 seat majority in each house for the Republican Party and a Democratic Governor.
There are 6 competitive seats in the Senate where Northram won in 2017, and have Republican legislators. There are 12 such districts in the House as well. Each of these need to be targeted and have as good candidates as the local parties can find who are involved in local organizations. The Democratic Party could easily pick up a Trifecta in Virginia in 4 months.

Every other state in the Union which has a Republican majority has over a 10% lead, so unless if this cycle has a particularly large landslide year, I do not expect any big changes.

This leaves us with not very many places for progress which will fully flip a chamber, but some important places to make a difference building towards the future.

Trifectas post-2020

I expect most states will be the same.

Democrats will maintain trifectas in Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Illinois, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine.

Republicans will keep their trifectas in Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Current divided governments will continue in Montana, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Louisiana.

Democrats could pick up trifectas in Virginia, Minnesota, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Republicans could potentially lose their trifecta in Arizona.

Republicans will likely gain a trifecta in Louisiana.

The total trifecta party score post 2020 will likely be:

  • Democrats: 18
  • Republicans: 23
  • Divided government:9

This is a really important step in the right direction.

Ballot Initiatives

Elections

There are a lot of exciting elections related initiatives, with 5 ranked voting initiatives, so I expect we are going to make a lot of progress.

 References

How to get Visa-free access to the United States

The United States is one of the least welcoming countries in the world based on our visa policy. Only Canadians, Palauans, Marshall Islanders, and Micronesians can come here without some sort of visa. Everyone else needs to either preregister for $14 or pay $140 for a ten year visa. Most people need to pay the $140.

I think this is ridiculous because many countries which require visas are safer than we are, and we are really not protecting ourselves by making German tourists pre-register before they invade with socks and sandals.

All jokes aside, this should be a much bigger diplomatic issue. There are a few options for countries to reciprocate. Some countries usually will charge the citizens of the other country the same amount before abolishing visas, but I think there is a better way to do this.

When most Americans travel abroad off the continent we will most likely travel to The European Union. These countries are our allies, and safer than us by practically every metric. There is absolutely no reason to have visas for German and French tourists. I count a visa as any document which a tourist must pre-register for and pay money before they arrive, whether there is a 99.9% approval rate or not. The European Union should negotiate with my country to get visa-free access for their citizens by making a demand.

Either all Schengen Treaty citizens get visa free access to the United States,or the following laws will trigger.

  1. Americans will have to pay $140 for a 10 year visa to visit the Schengen Area effective immediately. This will be an on-line application. Each and every applicant will be given a message that this is reciprocity, and if they want visa-free access to call their member of congress which the EU will provide for them on the page.
  2. Elected government officials must pay $1000 for a single entry 14 day visa to visit the European Union or Schengen Area effective immediately.
  3. The United States President and Secretary of State are banned from entering the European Union or Schengen Area effective immediately.
  4. Ambassadors must pay $3 per day to remain in the European Union. Starting 1 January 2021 Ambassadors must pay $1000 per day to remain in the European Union.

Or the United States can give EU and Schengen Area members visa-free entry.

Tourist visa fees will be refunded after visa-free access is granted.

This would probably work.

Unfortunately, the European Union is not doing this plan. Instead, under the leadership of Juncker they are deciding to go with a similar plan to the US, Canada, and Australia of having low-cost visas for tourists starting the beginning of 2021. They said themselves back when the US started charging for ETA that the idea that it would increase tourism is ludicrous. However, 8 years later they end up doing the same thing which will not help their tourism industry. It will not keep Europeans safe, neither will it increase goodwill between countries. Their system is even worse because applicants will need to announce which country they intend to enter in and will not be allowed to enter in other countries in the Schengen Area. This means that unless if they see sense before then that people will be required to always to fly through one country and then transfer, which will hurt tourism.

I personally have family in Germany, Finland, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Saying I MUST always enter through Germany to go to Finland for a three year period is inconvenient, and doesn’t benefit anyone.

The system we have now where we present our passport when we arrive and get a stamp is as much as we need (probably more than we need actually) in terms of safety on both sides of the Atlantic relative to both countries. ETIAS is also not just being targeted at the US, Canada, and Australia who have similar absolutely ridiculous systems.

More than this, pre-registration like ESTA, ETA, and ETIAS push refugees out of sight and out of mind, enabling fascists. With the EU, Canada, USA, and Australia implementing such systems, the number of places where refugees can safely go to avoid persecution grow low in number. These programs are not being targeted at countries like Saudi Arabia which would be a real security risk given their attacks on other countries with their paramilitaries, but instead between free and developed countries, where they simply do not belong.

There also isn’t nearly enough research on the impact of such systems on tourism or safety, meaning they are not making us safer, and the government has failed to provide any proof that they actually keep terrorists from crossing borders.

We need proof that these are not working, and to abolish them as fast as politically possible. Europeans need to vote out EPP, Australians need to vote in Labour, and Americans need to vote in Democrats. Then a Democratic Party, Labour Party, Liberal, S&D alliance can work on ending visas between the EU, Canada, United States, and Australia since the far-right coalition has failed to provide any evidence that these programs actually keep people safe.

Wir sind ein Volk.

Appendix:
The ESTA was funded to support The Brand USA, a private-public partnership funded by ESTA visa fees to advertise tourism to the United States. They state on their website: “As one of the best levers for driving economic growth, international travel to the United States currently supports over two million American jobs (directly and indirectly) and benefits virtually every sector of the U.S. economy.”

Sounds like a self-aware wolf to me… because they are literally funded by a program which is proven to reduce tourism to the United States…

This is just too rich.

Bad investment advice

I was doing some reading this morning and was thinking about defined benefit vs. defined contribution plans and trying to find some actual numbers from a source which would know what they were talking about to show some real numbers behind which decision people should make.

The article I turned to first was from Forbes, which is in my view is a fairly reliable magazine for financial issues. The first yellow flag was a lack of charts plotting how fast someone’s investment would grow, and not showing their work regarding inflation. As I read through I found a glaring error.

The article assumed that someone would only deposit 8% of their income from a match from the employer. But employer matching contributions only occur if you have already contributed that much from your salary. It is usually a dollar for dollar match to your contribution for your retirement.

Now, if you were only contributing 4% of your salary (accounting for inflation of course) then the numbers in the article were correct, and you would only end up with $22,000 of retirement income in 25 years (the short time frame this article was based on) which is clearly not enough. This is not what the article stated however, and only depositing 4% of your income in retirement is a terrible decision.

The golden rule of thumb for savings is simple. You should save for retirement as early as you can, diversify across many industries, and invest as much as you can every year. Contributing only 4% of your salary to your retirement plan is utterly foolish, especially if you have paid down your debt and have a Home Equity Line of Credit on your home.

Once we readjust their assumption that you are only depositing 8% of your income in total in your retirement plan, and account for inflation, continuing their 5% after inflation investment rate (which is approximately the 8% market rate of the S&P 500 times 2% inflation), you will end up with $749,529 in today’s dollars, or $1.2 million without adjusting for inflation, which will provide you with $58,000 of income in today’s dollars. This is almost double what you would receive from the annuity they are using as a comparison. This is also only after working for 25 years.

The article was written to make it look like a hard decision, but in reality, every defined benefit plan I have ever looked at has come in far short of a defined contribution plan, even before accounting for accidents which can occur, ending your life, making defined benefit plans disappear, unlike defined contribution plans which are inheritable upon your death. I have yet to find a traditional pension plan which performs well in comparison.

No matter what age you pass away, the plan with a balance will always win, whether you die at 70 or 100.

Be careful about the media you read, it can really mislead you if you don’t read carefully. Even fairly well reputed magazines can sometimes make glaring errors.

Year Salary Deposit Balance Inflation Real value Interest
1 $80,000.00 $12,800.00 $12,800.00 1 $12,800.00
2 $82,400.00 $13,184.00 $27,008.00 0.98 $26,467.84
3 $84,872.00 $13,579.52 $42,748.16 0.9604 $41,055.33
4 $87,418.16 $13,986.91 $60,154.92 0.941192 $56,617.33
5 $90,040.70 $14,406.51 $79,373.82 0.92236816 $73,211.89
6 $92,741.93 $14,838.71 $100,562.44 0.9039207968 $90,900.48
7 $95,524.18 $15,283.87 $123,891.30 0.885842380864 $109,748.17
8 $98,389.91 $15,742.39 $149,544.99 0.86812553324672 $129,823.83
9 $101,341.61 $16,214.66 $177,723.25 0.850763022581785 $151,200.37
10 $104,381.85 $16,701.10 $208,642.21 0.83374776213015 $173,954.97
11 $107,513.31 $17,202.13 $242,535.71 0.817072806887547 $198,169.34
12 $110,738.71 $17,718.19 $279,656.76 0.800731350749796 $223,929.94
13 $114,060.87 $18,249.74 $320,279.04 0.7847167237348 $251,328.32
14 $117,482.70 $18,797.23 $364,698.60 0.769022389260104 $280,461.39
15 $121,007.18 $19,361.15 $413,235.63 0.753641941474902 $311,431.71
16 $124,637.39 $19,941.98 $466,236.47 0.738569102645404 $344,347.85
17 $128,376.52 $20,540.24 $524,075.63 0.723797720592496 $379,324.75
18 $132,227.81 $21,156.45 $587,158.13 0.709321766180646 $416,484.04
19 $136,194.64 $21,791.14 $655,921.92 0.695135330857033 $455,954.50
20 $140,280.48 $22,444.88 $730,840.55 0.681232624239892 $497,872.43
21 $144,488.90 $23,118.22 $812,426.02 0.667607971755094 $542,382.09
22 $148,823.57 $23,811.77 $901,231.87 0.654255812319992 $589,636.19
23 $153,288.27 $24,526.12 $997,856.55 0.641170696073592 $639,796.38
24 $157,886.92 $25,261.91 $1,102,946.98 0.628347282152121 $693,033.74
25 $162,623.53 $26,019.76 $1,217,202.50 0.615780336509078 $749,529.37 $58,763.10