The key to peace

It’s travel and frequent communication between countries.

The way this would work, in order:

  1. Debt-free college. Educated citizens are less likely to fall for populism.
  2. Abolish eVisas between democracies.
  3. Implement eGates for your citizens at airport customs. It will tremendously improve everyone’s speed through airports.
  4. Extend eGate access to other countries where the risks are minimal and criminal records are shared.
  5. Make it easier for people to work between countries. Work visas should be easy to acquire, and they are necessary for tax reasons.
  6. Make airport security fast and efficient.
  7. Join open border agreements like the Schengen Area with other democracies.
  8. Free trade between democracies. Extend the EFTA outside of Europe. Complex interdependence works.
  9. Extend the Schengen Area outside of Europe. Start with the US and Canada.
  10. Make it legal to build dense housing, keeping housing costs low.

Travel and intercultural communication are critical for increasing friendships across cultures.

2024 checklist

Here are the major changes that need to happen in the next year:

  • Ukraine must win the war and be accepted as a full member of NATO. For this to happen, Ukraine needs to be able to strike all Russian military targets.
  • Accept Georgia as a full member of NATO.
  • Israel needs to stop bombing civilian targets. A solution to the crisis in Palestine needs to be adopted. Netanyahu will then go back to court and likely be impeached.
  • Romania and Bulgaria need to be accepted as full members of Schengen.
  • Kamala Harris needs to be President.
  • Priorities for the next congress:
    • Universal health care
    • Add long-term care coverage to Medicare
    • Set the stage for the gradual public buyout of private railroads
  • Reverse the trend of eVisas being implemented globally.
  • Move the War on Drugs from a primarily supply focus to a demand focus through healthcare. This will reduce violence across the Americas.
  • The United Kingdom needs to apply to rejoin the European Union.

 

We need a tourism lobby

I was doing some reading this evening and wondering why the Andean Community and MERCOSUR don’t merge. I thought about the intricacies of that relationship, which led me to look at how Brazil is now going to implement a new visa for “security reasons.” That made me think: What is the actual evidence on visas between democracies deterring crime?

That duckduckgo search led me to this document. https://www.sita.aero/globalassets/docs/white-papers/the-role-of-electronic-travel-authorizations-paper.pdf

Most of what this document says is not important, but what is important is that they boldly claim to their investors that they are the leading global partner of governments in implementing eVisas and, without saying which countries they are operating in, claim to be operating worldwide.

That made me wonder: Who is operating the eVisa systems that have been popping up worldwide? Is it SITA? They claim to be doing so to their investors, but the Wikipedia pages for such systems do not say anything about it.

While I do not know for certain that SITA is why the US and EU are implementing visas on each other, open secrets prove that SITA has been a consistent lobbyist since 2001, when the 9/11 Commission report was written.

SITA operates ESTA in the US and ETA in Canada, among others. This company, without a useful product, is fearmongering politicians to implement its technology so it can collect a stable paycheck into the future by harming relations between allies.

The best part of the entire policy is the database that ETIAS is going to tap, which supposedly will improve security, is the Schengen Information System, which is the database that has recorded entries and exits of the Schengen Area since the agreement came into force. It doesn’t improve security; it just adds another level of bureaucracy and enriches a corrupt corporation.

When it comes to terrorist attacks in Europe, there has not been a terrorist attack in Europe from a citizen from a visa-free country to the Schengen information since… well… it’s never happened.

Is ETIAS necessary to improve the Schengen Information System?

According to the European Union, the Schengen Information System has been continuously improved and updated since its launch in 1995. Its last significant upgrade was in March 2023.

Advocates of eVisas frequently claim ETIAS will allow the EU to monitor travelers’ criminal records. Did they not already do this? What was the point of meeting with a customs agent at the border, then? I have trouble believing this.

The Schengen Information System already does this.

They claim that ETIAS will improve security and speed checks. But when I went through Schengen security in Wroclaw last year, I don’t think the guard asked me any questions. The reason is simple: they already have access to criminal records, and my record is blank. I was through customs in less than 5 minutes while standing in a line from a full flight. I don’t know how you can make that faster. Even an eGate would not speed it up by more than a minute. The process is already extremely efficient, and I do not believe ETIAS will make security faster.

The only thing ETIAS does is require people to pre-register. It does not add any functionality for criminal records that does not already exist, and it also does not automate customs by removing the need for border guards.

The only reasonable conclusion I have is the company that runs the technology behind these systems is a parasite.

Let’s make a testable hypothesis. A country with not just visa-free entry for over 50 nationalities but even eGate access for over 40 nationalities should then see significant levels of terrorism from foreigners.

If visa-free travel and eGates for select foreigners were a common cause of terrorist attacks, we would not have to imagine a country with such a policy. We could just study the United Kingdom. If that theory were true, the United Kingdom would be the most vulnerable country to terrorism in the world. They offer eGate access to over 40 nationalities. If the theory is correct, the United Kingdom should be bursting at the seams with terrorist attacks every second Tuesday blowing up every other apartment in London! The United Kingdom offers us a clear picture of the horrors of visa-free travel and eGate access and the dystopic hellhole such a policy will create. As we can see in the data:

There have been no terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom in 2024.

There were no terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom in 2023.

There were no terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom in 2022.

One person died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2021. The perpetrator is a British citizen.

Three people died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2020. The perpetrator was a legal refugee.

Two people died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2019. The perpetrator was a British citizen.

No one died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2018.

Forty-six people died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2017.

One member of parliament was assassinated by a Neo-Nazi British citizen in the United Kingdom in 2016.

No one died due to terrorism in the United Kingdom in 2015.

If we investigate the attacks in 2017, the first one was perpetrated by Khalid Masood, who was a British citizen. The second and worst attack was by Salman Abedi, and he was a British citizen as well. There were warnings about Abedi, but intelligence ignored them. Khurum Shazad Butt was also a British citizen. Darren Osborne is also a British citizen.

Everyone who has committed a terrorist attack in the United Kingdom in the last ten years was legally living in Britain. All but one were British citizens, and the other one was a legal refugee. None were tourists.

Maybe my hypothesis was wrong? It seems we are being misled that the solution to terrorism is the mass surveillance of tourists. Tourists are not a source of terrorism.

The appropriate methods to counter these terrorist attacks, which appear to now be used by British intelligence, is to listen to tip-offs and follow up on leads. It has worked. There have been no successful terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom in 3 years.

You can be a safe and free society while not just having visa-free travel but letting some foreigners even use eGates, and you won’t see an uptick in terrorism!

We need a new tourism and economics lobbying group to provide a balanced viewpoint on these issues, namely:

  • Visa-free travel needs to be the default. eVisas should only be used when there is a serious security threat, not as a default.
  • Follow up properly on reports that someone is dangerous. Properly following up on tip-offs and using probable cause is the most effective tool we have in fighting terrorism, not unwarranted surveillance.
  • Work visas need to be available so people can work here legally.
  • The reasons behind these false promises are the very real threat of terrorism. Visa-free travel has never been used widely by terrorists to harm democracies. We need a comprehensive policy to fight terrorism with the following planks:
    • Proper funding is needed to counter money laundering globally. Countries that do not comply will be sanctioned. Countries that cooperate will receive massive economic and travel benefits.
    • Severe visa restrictions on countries that are found to foster terrorism. Visa-free travel for countries that cooperate.

I believe there is a lot we can do to fight terrorism more meaningfully, targeted, and efficiently. I am an American, and I believe in the Fifth Amendment. Implementing high levels of security for everyone without probable cause is contrary to American values and fiscally irresponsible. We need a system that accurately targets real security threats without wasting resources on non-threats.

It must be easy for a country to prove it is not a threat, for which it will receive travel and trade benefits.

The punishment for not cooperating by supporting terrorism needs to be severe.

We do not have to choose between security and freedom; we can have both or neither.

End ESTA. It is political snake oil. Implement visa-free travel for our partners.

It’s time to refocus our efforts on methods that work and follow our American values.

The Tax, service, inflation trilemma

Modern democracy is based on the following system:

  • Low inflation
  • Tax rates to cover services
  • Services provided for no additional at point of use

You can have all three of these, and people love having low inflation and services provided for no additional charge. Highways without tolls, city parks without a fee to enter, everyone loves these. It is a good deal.

But the Republican party’s thought process is low inflation, paying basically nothing in taxes, and getting services for free at the point of use. Republicans I know regularly will use the freeway instead of the toll  road as they complain about taxes when there is a choice. If every road is free and the government doesn’t collect taxes, either the service will have to drop in quality or the government will have to print more money to cover the costs. Printing money forever, not just in a counter-cyclical manner, will cause inflation.

Fox News needs to change their tune, either accept that your government services are going to stink, there will be a hyperinflation, or you will have to pay taxes

There is no free lunch.

Quick answers to structural problems

This article by Strong Towns is a good one, read this before reading my commentary on it.

I mostly agree with this article. I do not believe there is a free quick fix to ending the insane housing inflation we are experiencing in this country. We have had restrictive zoning which has reduced the quantity of housing significantly as our population has grown. We see the same pattern in Canada, to an even greater extent.

We do not see the same pattern in Europe. Europe has slower population growth, actually declining in many places, which reduces pressure on housing in the region. They also tend to have more lax laws regarding building which allows housing stock to keep up with population growth.

This has created a structural change in the market for housing. As demand for housing has increased, supply has been unable to keep up, especially in the growing tech hubs around the country. Increase demand, keep supply the same, price will go up.

The article is absolutely correct, relaxing zoning laws is not going to necessarily reduce the price of housing, but we have seen the cities which have done the most to loosen zoning laws have seen the slowest growth in rents, regardless of their job markets. We need an economy which can respond to market demands, and is best done through a free market which is allowed to respond to market pressures.

Everywhere in the country has significantly restricted the market’s ability to respond to changing conditions, leading to supply being unable to catch up with demand, which is why rents have climbed. Only a few places have reversed these policies lately, and that is where inflation has slowed.

There are two ways to make an economy to work, depending on market structure. In naturally competitive markets, like housing, the best thing to do is limit regulation to things regarding health and safety. Do not overly restrict the market, since that will only cause inflation.

Naturally monopolistic markets, markets with high structural barriers to entry such as utilities, however typically work best when they are publicly owned. There is thriving competition between couriers, you have DHL, UPS, FedEx, and many more regional courier companies competing with each other for business. They are able to do this in an open market because the highway system is publicly owned. Anyone can use it. If the highway system however were private they could make deals with one courier or another preventing the market from being competitive, and the industry would devolve into regional monopolies, stifling competition, leading to higher prices for all. That’s how America’s railroads work. So this goes to show that simply making every market as free and private as possible will not necessarily lead to a better economy. It depends on the industry, it depends on the market structure.

In the case of housing, it is clearly not a natural monopoly. The best thing to do is allow developers to build housing, following standard safety protocols, and allow said housing to be built tall to increase the number of people living in a square kilometer. This increases the supply of housing, reducing pressure on housing prices.

While there might be other policies to reduce the price of housing, the best way to do it, the cheapest way to do it is to increase supply.

The one thing you don’t want to do is chase inflation with more money supply. That never works.

References:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI

 

Results of compromise

Chamberlain (left) and Hitler leave the Bad Godesberg meeting on 23 September 1938

The center-right party in Austria has spent the last couple of years doing everything it possibly can to get votes from the far right. They have denied Schengen membership to Romania and Bulgaria and have not been supporting Ukraine with military weapons. They’ve played right into Putin’s hands. Yesterday, the far right still won the most votes and seats. All of that compromise did not save the campaign of ÖVP.

It’s not just in Austria yesterday. It’s across pretty much every election in every country. The most successful parties tend to be the ones who stick by their platform. I wish there would finally be a clenching point where this endless compromise is finally seen as what it is.

We can also look at Chancellor Scholz and President Biden. While I will take them over any conservative, their reluctance to do everything necessary to save Ukrainian lives is not saving their campaigns.

Berchtesgaden meeting, 16 September 1938

Look at the Liberal Democrats in the UK in 2010. They are closer to Labour on social and economic issues but decided to follow the advice of compromise, make a deal, and coalition with the Conservatives. As a result, they were slaughtered in 2015.

Keir Starmer, the Brexiteer in chief, now has an approval rating of -30. It usually takes leaders years to get to such abysmal approval ratings, but it didn’t even take him a year. He has compromised with the Tories at every opportunity on Brexit. It is not working.

Chamberlain in Munich

For an American example, President Biden has made the following of compromise as an end to itself the goal of his presidency. If Biden just compromises with Republicans enough, does not make waves, and keeps a steady, even keel, he will be the most popular president in history and be able to finally bring unity to our country. He is wisely working on balancing domestic political with ideological goals regarding the war in Ukraine, attempting to bring all sides together into one great harmony. He will be the greatest president of…

Wait… what do you mean he’s not running? His approval rating has been hovering around 40% for three years? He has worked so hard to bring unity to the American people, yet he is the second least popular president in history, behind only Jimmy Carter. If the goal of compromise is to maintain power, it has been a colossal failure.

He has arguably succeeded at uniting the country. No other president has successfully made over 60% of Americans agree on a president’s job performance for 3 years running. Mission accomplished, I guess…

Bill Clinton also compromised heavily on many issues, including gay marriage, bank reform, and more. While his approval rating was sky-high in 1996, under his presidency, the Democrats lost the House after holding it almost continuously since 1932. He failed to win a majority of the vote in the presidential year. I believe he would have lost if not for Ross Perot.

What if we did the opposite? What if we stood for our values? I cannot guarantee it will always work. LBJ did everything he could to pass civil rights legislation during his presidency, and a lot of voters still made the Vietnam War the reason why they couldn’t vote for Democrats, even though the Republicans also supported the war.

But then there is Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He went full steam ahead and passed policies that pulled us out of the depression and a massive wealth transfer to the Lost Generation in the form of Social Security. He was elected four times, then his vice President, Harry Truman, won yet another election. Except for the Japanese Internment camps, he was a great president on basically every other policy for the people of the time.

Democrats retained control of the House for all but four years between 1932 and 1995.

Ukraine game theory, 2024 edition

I first wrote a game theory tree for Ukraine in January 2022, when I drew out a plan for why Russia would back down if the West responded with a military threat and there wouldn’t be a war.

The foreign policy team (Blinken & Sullivan) at the White House clearly does not understand game theory; we did not act appropriately using the available information, and two and a half years later, the war is still ongoing. They failed.

At this point, we are at a critical juncture for Ukraine where people are talking about how there should be a peace treaty now, having a stalemate, and saving lives, and this is the peaceful option.

Game theory and history demonstrate why a stalemate now, as Ukraine has made some progress over the summer, is the best option for the military-industrial complex and Russia in the long term and the worst possible deal for Ukraine.

We have been in all but one of these situations before. Follow down the tree and see where each path leads. The decision tree makes the only realistic option very obvious.

The only option is to support Ukraine fully; if they win, they will regain all of their territory, be allowed into NATO, and then there can be peace.

There is no other path to peace. The only realistic scenarios we have not been in so far are Russia’s refusal of a peace treaty and Ukraine’s membership in NATO. I do not believe Russia will refuse a peace treaty; we know the other three options do not work.

The only option that leads to peace is supporting Ukraine with enough weapons to lead them to a swift victory and then immediate accession to NATO.

There is no other way.

I have labeled the three options we have already done over the years.

  • 1921: Ukraine was fully absorbed into Russia, followed by a genocide ten years later.
  • 1994: Independent and neutral Ukraine as part of the Minsk Accords.
  • 2014: Stalemate at the line of control. It is unstable and does not solve the problem.

Russia has never demonstrated the willingness to support a treaty voluntarily where Ukraine is free and independent.

The only stable endpoints are a total military victory for Ukraine or a Holodomor. A Holodomor is not an option, leaving only a total military victory for Ukraine followed by NATO membership as the only desirable and possible endpoint.

Slava Ukraine.

Lublin and the formation of a distinct Ukrainian identity

For over two years, Russia has been invading Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine is historically Russian territory. This makes as much sense as claiming Northern Italy is historically German. While this is technically correct, there have been 1000 years between then and now which have sent these two regions on different paths.

Recorded history starts around 900 AD, when the Varangians invaded the region between St. Petersburg and Kyiv and settled it. These Vikings became the Kievan Rus, which evolved into the Rurik dynasty, which ruled Russia until 1598. From 1060 the region evolved into a complex system of duchies, which is beyond the scope of this article. The principalities were absolute monarchies at this point, with a feudal system.

Kyiv was conquered by the Mongols in 1301.

What is now Kyiv was taken from the Mongols by Lithuania in 1362 and turned into a vassal state. It was fully absorbed into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in 1471.

The period under the Grand Duchy of Lithuania was the foundation of a Ukrainian identity that is significantly different from Russia. The Grand Duchy of Lithuania merged with the Kingdom of Poland in 1569 under the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Before this point, they had been ruled by authoritarian kings or by Mongols.

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth saw the foundation of the Sejm which balanced the power of a king with more power for local nobles. The economy evolved from a feudal system where slavery was forbidden. It was by no means a utopia. Still, under the Kingdom of Poland, education improved, and a relatively high level of religious tolerance led to Kyiv being home to one of the largest Jewish communities in the world, just like across all of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. It remained this way until the Holocaust and ethnic cleansing from the Soviet Union in the leadup to the foundation of Israel. Ukrainians almost became a third pole in the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth under the Treaty of Hadiach in 1658. This was the first time Ukrainians almost had their clearly distinct identity recognized in a treaty. While by modern standards, the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth was a corrupt serf-powered oligarchy, for the time, it was relatively progressive, especially compared to the strict feudal system of Moscow. It was a center for trade and learning in Eastern Europe.

In 1667, the tide turned after the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth lost to the Russian Empire, and Kyiv became a border city between Poland-Lithuania and Russia. Kyiv gradually lost its autonomy for the next century.

Following the Polish-Russian War of 1792 and the partition of Poland in 1795 the rest of Ukraine was annexed by Russia.

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is very important in understanding why Ukrainians differ from Russians. Ukrainians had more freedom than Russians, so when they were reabsorbed into the Russian sphere of influence in 1795, it moved Ukraine back to a more primitive system. Their language and culture diverged from Russia. This can be clearly seen in the Four Universals, which formed the basis for the first free and democratic Ukrainian state in 1918.  They are worth reading.

While Ukraine enjoyed relative freedom under the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth leading to a strong sense of freedom and justice, Moscow stagnated. Moscow was a vassal state of the Golden Horde from 1282-1471, and after that, remained a Unitary Absolute Monarchy. Russia did experiment with legislatures in this period, the Zemsky Sobor was established in 1549 and gradually lost influence before being dissolved in 1684 by the Tsar. Twenty-seven years later, the Governing Senate was established by Peter I to represent the nobles, but it was subordinate to the Emperor. The Emperor always had the final say over the parliament. Russia remained a unitary absolute monarchy until 1906, over 300 years after the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth established a balance of power between the Sejm and the King. Between 1906 and 1917, four Dumas were established, but the Tsar was able to dissolve them on a whim, which he did. Hardly a democracy.

Russia did not experience an independent legislature until 1991. It lasted nine years before Vladimir Putin took over the country, and through corrupt elections, the Federal Assembly has been little more than a rubber stamp for Putin’s will for over twenty years.

I do not believe Russia is destined to be an authoritarian hellscape. The people of Russia have the power to stand up against their corrupt oligarchy whenever they want, but they just simply haven’t. Instead, their oligarchs have brainwashed them into believing NATO threatens them, but the only people threatened by NATO are the people in power. I hope the Russians realize this and turn against their government so they can be strong and free like Ukraine. Russia cannot change until Russians demand a democratic system.

When Ukraine became independent, they have successfully held elections every five or six years since 1994. Each president has been better than the last. Kuchma was very controversial and corrupt, followed by Yushchenko who supports joining the European Union and NATO. Yanukovych presided over democratic backsliding, culminating in mass protests and ousting him in 2014. Ukraine is going to continue to improve after the end of the war. It takes time to unravel centuries of corruption after being occupied by Russia for the majority of two centuries, but I believe once Ukrainian independence and security are guaranteed they will be able to do it.

This is the history of the Ukrainian people, and why it is so important to ensure they win this war.

Foreign policy positions

Based on CFR, this is how I would answer:

China

We need to strengthen our ties with every country in Asia to ensure that any invasion by the People’s Republic of China of its neighbors will be a suicide mission. To ensure peace on the continent, bring back SEATO and invite India, Nepal, and Bhutan as members. Normalize relations between Pakistan and India. The Republic of China will always be a critical ally of the United States. We need to include South Korea and Japan in SEATO and help mend ties between those countries, as they are both critical allies of ours.

Iran

Iran supports numerous terrorist groups around the Middle East, and their government seeks to undermine democracies. The only thing keeping them in check is their abysmal economy. We need to build a world where there are fewer ways Iran can exploit tensions to support terrorist groups like Hezbollah. We need a free and prosperous Lebanon to bring stability to the region.

North Korea

North Korea is a significant threat to the world. Their barbaric regime is supported by both Russia and China. I support Korean unification under the Republic of Korea.

Ukraine

Ukraine should have been invited to NATO along with Georgia in 2008. It was a major strategic blunder not to invite them. The consequences are that they have both now been invaded, and hundreds of thousands of people have died in this pointless war. I believe Ukraine can win and will win this war as long as we provide them with the weapons and allow them to use them strategically. I trust our Ukrainian allies more than our own advisors on this issue since they are on the ground and we are not, meaning they naturally have more information than we do.

If Russia turns Ukraine into a vassal state again, there will be genocide, just like there was in the 1930s. Russia will then turn its sights towards Georgia, and the perception of NATO as a weak and ineffectual institution will weaken every democracy in the world, including ours. America is not safe until Ukraine is free and controls all of its territory. I support NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia; the only thing that will provide peace and security to the region. Ukraine and Georgia are democracies and our allies, and we have not treated them as such. This changes with me.

Afghanistan

Abandoning Afghanistan to the terrorists was risky, dangerous, and stupid. Reducing America’s power projection has made the world significantly more dangerous. I believe it is only a matter of time before the terrorists from the Taliban and allied groups attack India. India is the world’s largest democracy. I will work to make India a vital ally of the United States and provide whatever advice is necessary to help India root out corruption and develop their economy. This is the only way to counter populism. A free Afghanistan and a prosperous India are paramount to American national security and power projection.

Saudi Arabia

Most of the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia. There are numerous reports from respected newspapers and non-profits of Saudi citizens funding terrorism and the government turns a blind eye. They are engaged in a pointless proxy war in Yemen. I do not believe Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States. I will look into evidence regarding Saudi Arabia and pressure them to crack down on money laundering if any is found. I believe in a rules-based order; our allies must follow the law.

Israel-Palestinian conflict

Israel is a democracy, but Palestinians have been denied access to those institutions. The war must end, and we need a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Gaza Strip. Israel needs to abandon its settlements in the West Bank or lose military support from the United States. Terrorists advertise Israeli actions in Palestine as they are their most successful recruiting tactic and cause pointless pain for Palestinians. I do not believe in forcibly sending people to other countries. The only people who need to move are people who are illegally occupying settlements in the West Bank. Hamas must be defeated, and the Gaza Strip needs to be returned to the Palestinian Authority. Once this war is over, military aid must be conditional on abandoning settlements.

Support for Hamas has exploded over the last year as Israel has carpet-bombed the Gaza Strip. This is dangerous for Israel and the United States. My utmost priority as President is to protect American lives, and the war in Gaza is strengthening terrorism, putting Americans in danger. We need a different path to reconcile Palestinians and Israelis as soon as possible, and this is a strategic priority that could take a decade but is worth it. I will not tolerate actions that strengthen terrorism. There needs to be a ceasefire.

I am deeply concerned with how Israeli banks are being used by Russian oligarchs to bypass sanctions regarding the Ukraine War. This must end.

Venezuela

Maduro has led Venezuela down the path of poverty and authoritarianism, just as in Nicaragua. I do not support military intervention in Venezuela. Gonzalez is the legitimate president of Venezuela according to every available metric. Gonzalez was polling almost 70% before the election, and then the government announced Maduro was the winner and didn’t allow foreign observers into the country. The election this year was a sham. The people of Venezuela need to remove Maduro and put Gonzalez in place. America supports a free and prosperous Venezuela.

Regarding the rest of Latin America, the Rio Pact is one of our two most important treaties, which has allowed Latin America to become one of the most democratic regions of the world over the last 30 years. We will continue to stand by our allies, increase trade, and protect them from foreign threats. As Latin America continues to develop, America will stand with them. As President, I support the decriminalization of drugs to reduce the flow of money to drug cartels, which harms both our allies and the United States.

Africa

Africa is so diverse. Numerous countries are rapidly turning into major democracies in Africa. The United States needs to increase trade and start defense pacts with countries in Africa to help them move down the path to democracy. We need to clarify that there are two choices: You can be authoritarian, poor, and alone, but if you democratize, you can join us as voluntary partners with economic and defense benefits.

Trade

Trade is the most powerful tool we have at our disposal to bring countries together. We must form a free trade agreement with the European Union, our most important allies. We must end travel visas with our partners, a form of tariff. Tariffs must be used sparingly and kept in our back pocket, with free trade and travel as the default. That default will only be changed if a country is corrupt, sponsoring terrorism, or invading its neighbors. I will expand trade and eliminate all travel visas with our allies. Barriers between friends strengthen populists who offer false solutions. I provide honest answers.

Climate

I support an exemption-free carbon tax. I want to end all direct subsidies for fossil fuels.

Election systems vs government systems

For years, the left has commonly claimed that the reason the United States does not have universal health care is that it has a presidential system rather than a parliamentary system. This is also claimed to be the reason third parties have not formed a government in the United States since 1861.

The first reason this is not true is because if you look at South Korea, they have universal health care, as do many presidential systems in the Americas.

United States

The reason the United States does not have universal health care is because we keep voting for Republicans. It’s as simple as that.

Despite this, Republicans have only won one of the last eight presidential elections but have served three of the previous eight terms.

If the United States had a parliamentary system, assuming no changes in the House of Representatives elections over the last 36 years, Republicans would have formed a government in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2022.

A parliamentary system would have given us a Democratic head of government for 12 instead of 20 of the last 34 years. We would have seen eight additional years of Republican rule under a parliamentary system.

A presidential system also slows things down, which is both a feature and a bug. Since 1988 we have had:

Start End President Senate House Years Trifecta Congress President different Split Congress Both houses flip?
1987 1993 Republican Democrat Democrat 6 6
1993 1995 Democrat Democrat Democrat 2 2
1995 2001 Democrat Republican Republican 6 6 1
2001 2003 Republican Split Republican 2 1
2003 2007 Republican Republican Republican 4 4
2007 2009 Republican Democrat Democrat 2 2 1
2009 2011 Democrat Democrat Democrat 2 2
2011 2015 Democrat Democrat Republican 4 4
2015 2017 Democrat Republican Republican 2 2
2017 2019 Republican Republican Republican 2 2
2019 2021 Republican Republican Democrat 2 2
2021 2023 Democrat Democrat Democrat 2 2
2023 Democrat Democrat Republican 2 2

Since Reagan, we have had six years of Democratic trifectas versus four years of Republican trifectas, 14 years of Republican rule, and 14 years of Democratic rule under a parliamentary system.

This is one tradeoff you make between parliamentary and presidential systems. Parliamentary systems are faster than Presidential systems, for better and for worse. It all depends on how people vote and the election system you use.

Election systems make a tremendous difference in who gets elected into office.

Democrats won the most votes in the 1996 and 2012 House elections but did not win the most seats.

Democrats have not won the most seats without winning the most votes since 1942.

This is not because of how our head of government is selected; this is only because 50 states used first past the post until recently, and now the number is down to 48 states that use this archaic voting system.

United Kingdom

The same pattern appears in the United Kingdom, where the Conservative Party formed governments following elections in 1935, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019, with a majority of the seats and no coalition necessary. The Conservative Party has not won a majority of the vote since 1931.

This is under a parliamentary system. Parliamentary systems do not protect you from the spoiler effect and voters making bad decisions.

One of the easiest ways to tell whether an election accurately represents voters is to measure how much a party is over or under represented compared to their vote share.

The British election in which the Tories had the smallest margin in the last 70 years was in 2017 when they won 45% of the vote and 50% of the seats. This was the most accurate election since 1951. Margins are often 20% off or even larger, like in 1924, when the Tories won 69% of the seats with 47% of the vote.

Germany vs UK

The German election in which the CDU won the largest disproportionate share since the fall of Hitler was in 2013 when they won 7% more seats than they technically should have won. This is only the second time their margin of error has been above 5% since the fall of the Third Reich! The closest margin of victory since 1892 in the UK was in 1945, when the Tories were off by 3.85%.

The UK and Germany have parliamentary systems with a mostly ceremonial head of state. The only difference in government formation is their election systems. German elections always see close margins between the total votes a party receives and the number of seats it gets. No party has ever received a majority of the seats without having a majority vote in Germany.

In the UK it is the rule that at least one party will usually win a majority of the seats, and no party will win a majority of the vote. The only two times parties have won a majority of the vote in the last century were Labour in 1945 and the Tories in 1931. Majority governments have been formed with a majority of the seats in almost every election since.

In this case study comparing Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, it is obvious that the most important variable in electing a government that represents the people is not how you select your head of government but your election system, which ensures majority rule, which must come along with a majority of the vote.

The biggest risk in Germany and the United Kingdom is that you don’t vote for your head of government, which is how Hitler came to power through backdoor deals with Die Zentrum, the forerunner to CDU.

Ireland

Ireland offers us an opportunity to see ranked voting in action. Ireland has seen similar results to Germany since gaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1921. Ireland uses ranked voting, while Germany uses mixed member proportional, so one vote for your party, one vote in your constituency and then the party list seats are used to make the total allocation of parliament fit the vote share as close as possible.

Single Transferable Vote results in Ireland are similar to mixed member proportional results in Germany. Ranked voting ensures no party can win a majority of the seats without a majority of the vote once candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated. It also guarantees smaller parties can be started and gain representation in parliament. Ireland currently has nine parties in its parliament using a single transferable vote.

Party-list, proportional, and ranked voting can all work well.

However, there is a weakness in proportional and party list voting, which we observe in elections in Israel. Ideally, when designing a party list system, the threshold for getting a single seat should be set as the total valid votes divided by the total number of seats. This minimizes the number of wasted votes. But Israel, among many other democracies, sets an artificial threshold above that limit, which can easily cause 10% of more votes to be wasted. In the last election, 7% of the votes in Israel went to parties that won more than 1% of the vote.

Germany used to have the same problem until they made some reforms within the last decade. It is not unique to Israel, but Germany has since fixed it. This flaw still exists in many other democracies around the world.

So, if you use a party list, you need to ensure that the threshold for getting a seat in your parliament or congress is set at the total votes / total seats. Any party that wins more than that should have representation.

Ranked voting completely bypasses this problem by ensuring every vote counts as long as voters fill out their ballot. Under ranked voting, voters can both vote their conscience and ensure their vote never gets wasted.

This is why I believe ranked voting is the most proportional voting system.

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