Stidmatt

The only reason the Taliban isn’t fighting us is because they aren’t organized enough yet. If they start attacking Americans we will kick their asses. Give it 5 years, once they have total domination over Afghanistan, the story will be very different.
They give Biden credit that the Taliban kicked our ass and they are being strategic
Not just total domination, but continued support from the Saudi government and Pakistan. They dont need to develop Afghanistan, they have the infinite money mod.
People don’t understand this basic fact
Thats all I see on my Twitter feed this morning. All these PR majors who don’t know shit about politics.

You cannot contain fascism in a single country. We tried that in the 30s. It doesn’t work.

Its really not that complicated.

Rule number one: Don’t trust terrorists.

Fact: Pakistan harbored bin Laden and has a history of arming terrorist groups.

Fact: Pakistan and India have terrible relations

Fact: India has been a target for terrorist attacks before.

Fact: Afghanistan is about to become a major training center for terrorists.

Fact: there have been many attacks by Islamist militants against India for decades, the last one was in April https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_India

With all of these easily verifiable facts.

It’s pretty obvious that a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan is the worst possible news for India. It will worsen Indo-Pakistani relations, and I pray it won’t erupt into a blown out war between both countries because that will be a disaster.

The Taliban has already started executing civilians and banning education for girls and women.

It’s also not a question of IF the Taliban will harbor terrorists who attack other countries.

It’s a question of WHEN.

Fuck the New Democrats.

Fuck the Republicans.

Fuck Jimmy Carter.

Reagan was the devil.

May both Bushes rot in hell.

Obama did a better job than any other president over the last half century, but he still could have done far far more.

Trump is a good for nothing bastard, who doesn’t give a fuck about anyone but himself, and it shows.

Biden is a loser.

That being said…

This is meant  to  be a quick and dirty about how Afghanistan fell to the terrorists. Read the Wikipedia articles for more details.

The year was 1973. The Emir of Afghanistan stepped down as Emir and founded the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. The government was stable for 5 years until the Soviet Union launched a coup against the government and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan was formed. In response to this, President Jimmy Carter started to send money and arms to the Mujaheddin.  The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan were directly involved in financing the Mujaheddin until the Soviet Union was crumbling. This support continued until 1989 when the US government cut support to the Mujahideen. The Mujahideen formed the Islamic State of Afghanistan in 1996, after 4 years of brutal warfare. At this point they started a brutal regime which is famous. The Mujahideen had all the resources provided to them by the Americans, Saudis, and Pakistanis in the 1990s. Afghanistan has a literacy rate of only 31%. The Afghans didn’t stand a chance. No one cared.

In 2001 they were harboring Osama bin Laden, and he attacked the United States. We attacked Afghanistan to take out the Taliban (supposedly) and never completed the offensive. There were never enough troops. Too much attention was diverted to Iraq by the Bush administration. There was almost no effort to divert funding away from the Taliban and bring their financiers to justice. Not enough resources were focused on educating Afghans so their government could have a mature responsible civil service. In a country where women had not had access to education, they were in a fundamentally different situation. Under Bush, Obama, and Trump, the focus was on military means, and not enough attention was put into developing a mature civil service after 20 years of war (when we invaded).

Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban which essentially assumed they would take over last year. And guess what? They did.

Jimmy Carter started the conflict.

Reagan exacerbated it.

Bush, Obama, and Trump failed to provide the logistics so the Afghan government could be a high quality government.

Now the country suffers.

It’s America’s fault.

It’s Jimmy Carter’s fault.

Both parties are to blame.

It’s our largest failure in the last century.

It’s fucking disgusting.

Quick reference sheet for climate change and solutions

1. Global warming is real.
2. The largest contributor to climate change is carbon dioxide emissions.
3. Carbon dioxide emissions come from a wide variety of sources, primarily from electricity generation, transportation, and agriculture.
4. The ratio of which source is the most important differs by region.
5. The 2 most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States and most developed countries are from electricity and transportation.
6. The main thing we need to do in order to reverse climate change is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as quickly as possible.
7. If governments want to increase an activity, let’s say the number of people going to college, the most straight forward, efficient, and fair policy to increase education is to subsidize it. We do this because there education generates positive externalities for society.
8. If governments want policies to reduce consumption of a good which is causing negative externalities, then we should do the opposite of a subsidy which is a tax. This will encourage people to move from the activity which is bad for society to an activity which doesn’t negatively impact people around them.
9. Governments have little to no control over how the substitution effect will work. While subsidies for one form of renewable energy or another will make some impact, its almost impossible to control how much of the substitution effect will just switch investment from one renewable source to another. One example is how anti-nuclear protests which have successfully shut down nuclear plants often end up with that electricity coming from dirty energy. While there will probably be some impact on global warming from subsidies, this is governed solely by regional market forces.
10. The ratios of which sources are the largest contributors in one area vs another varies widely by region. Around 20% of electricity in Washington state comes from dirty energy, roughly 70% of electricity in Texas comes from dirty energy. A one size fits all subsidy approach will simply not work in a country as large as the United States which has such different sources of electricity by region.
11. Transportation became the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the 2010s, and mostly from individual cars. We need a policy which reduces emissions in cars substantially as fast as possible, while also cutting emissions from electricity.
12. While climate change is obviously important, we also have many other issues which need attention, such as education, health care, and other important programs. It is important to be efficient in how we use our resources. Even if we just print all the money we need, we will never have infinite people to administer programs. This is why it is important to be direct in policies to maximize efficiency.
13. If the goal is to reduce CO2 significantly than we need a federal policy which will work in all states and not be susceptible to the substitution effect simply switching from one renewable source to another. We need one which is also agnostic when it comes to which activity is generating the CO2. Given how power lines do not respect state boundaries, while state by state policies are better than nothing, we will eventually need an aggressive federal policy.
14. There is one policy which targets CO2 directly, regardless of source, regardless of activity, and will not simply substitute wind for solar. That policy is called an exemption free carbon tax.

References:

EPA US sources

EPA global sources

EIA Texas Overview

EIA Washington Overview

Substitution effect in action regarding closing nuclear plants

We are in a really bad situation when it comes to where politics are heading right now. Besides from the COVID recovery, which is currently failing, the current administration has no accomplishments yet beyond the stimulus which passed earlier this year, and no realistic chance of any on the horizon.

A week from tomorrow, the Census Bureau will release final counts for redistricting, that is the end point where the most important sections of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act will have no impact until 2032.

At that point, don’t expect the Republicans to make anyone fail to see that they don’t give a damn about bipartisanship or the well being of Americans. The defeat of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in a week is a major victory for them. Failure to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act before redistricting is complete is by any account a massive failure on the part of the Democratic Party and all of its leadership.

Key swing states like Arizona and Georgia have already passed significant restrictive laws regarding the right to vote.  Senators Kelly and Warnock are both up next year, and they only won by 51% percent of the vote each. The 5 swing states in 2022 are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Arizona and Georgia have passed voter disenfranchisement laws already, but all 5 have no excuse absentee voting. If we lose Arizona and Georgia, we would need to pick up the other three to have 51 votes, which is still not enough to overturn Manchin and Leahy’s support of the filibuster. If President Biden is to be a notable president with more than a brief mention in future history books, we need to keep all 5 seats, otherwise he will be the next Calvin Coolidge.

The failure to pass HR1 will guarantee extreme gerrymandering in almost every state, and if the Republicans pick up only 5 more seats, they will have control of the House of Representatives. If Democrats lose in any one of those 5 swing states, Republicans will have at least 51 seats in the Senate, which gives them near complete control of government.

The delay to pass HR1 and the obvious lack of balls in the current administration and DNC leadership to hold Democratic Senators accountable when they say they oppose HR1 will cost us the Federal government, and many battles in State governments across the country.

For the 2024 presidential election, only three states matter. Republicans need to pick up Arizona and Georgia (which if Democrats don’t give people a reason to stand in line, they probably will ) and one of either Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin all voted for Biden with a margin of under 1% in 2020.

This is why I am going to  be watching the Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania next year. It will not bode well for Biden if Democrats fail to pick up either Senate seat in those two states next year, and if we cannot win those Senate seats, it is unlikely that Biden will retain those states in 2024.

In 2018, Governor Tony Evers won the Governorship of Wisconsin by only 1% of the vote. If Democrats lose the Governorship next year, and cannot pick up the Senate seat in Wisconsin, than that is very good news for the Republican Party, and doomsday level news for President Biden. This will allow the GOP to pass voter discrimination laws in 2023 which will reduce turnout in 2024, and there will be no way for the President to stop them in a world without the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. That will cost Biden the Presidency.

The best thing to do is for President Biden to make sure that over the next year he does everything he can to give voters a reason to turnout to vote in 2022, otherwise I doubt he will get any significant legislation passed. This basically requires him to either make significant executive orders or use the bully pulpit to force Manchin, Sinema, and Leahy to join the Democrats in the abolition of the Filibuster.

If we don’t get significant executive orders and no significant laws beyond the stimulus bills in March out of this administration, and we lose either the Governorship or Senate seat in Wisconsin,  given the voter disenfranchisement laws being passed in key states which matter, we need to be very worried about 2024.

In 9 days the Census Bureau will release the counts which will be used for redistricting every state in the country.

If the John Lewis Voting Rights Act were passed before then, republicans would not be able to gerrymander these states.

As long as the filibuster is in place, HR1 will not pass.

As long as Biden thinks that he might get his bipartisan bill, he won’t fight the filibuster.

As soon as the census count is out we have less than a month to pass HR1 before the gerrymandering is nationwide.

Hence, it is in the best interest of the GOP to stretch out the voting process on this infrastructure bill as long as possible.

Because if the negotiations were to end, and it becomes obvious to President Biden that bipartisanship is not possible with McConnell, it will become painfully obvious to everyone with half a brain that the ONLY way to make significant change today is through an uncompromising abolition of the filibuster. Thats when the president brings out the bully pulpit, if he has any sense.

If filibuster abolition happened before gerrymandering is complete, democrats could pass HR1, ensuring that Republicans cannot gerrymander, all but guaranteeing a Democratic trifecta for the foreseeable future given demographics.

If filibuster abolition happens after the gerrymandering is done, it does not matter. Republicans will have already discriminated and gerrymandered their way to power, they then would likely take congress next year, and the presidency in 2024.

For this reason, the drawn out negotiations for an infrastructure bill are in the best interests of the Republican Party, and we are very close to the date where the only way to correct the gerrymandering will be through a highly packed court system (courtesy of #Jillnothill), and the very idea of a highly packed court ruling against gerrymandering is downright farcical.

Come back to reality and kill the filibuster before it is too late.

First of all, socialism is generally talking about non market based mechanisms, where everything market based is derided as a compromise.

A non market based system would then mean there is no usage of a market, meaning the entire system is devoid of exchanging with people outside of its all in one system. This means no buying drugs from private companies because that is using market mechanisms.

Medicare for all does not manufacture drugs within the government, it is a single insurance plan which everyone in a country is part of. This gives that one insurance plan MARKET POWER as a monopsony to lower drug prices. Since medicare for all purchases drugs on an open market, it is a market based solution to lower drug costs.

A monopsony is a market structure where there is only one buyer for a good or service. Monopsonies work by forcing suppliers to sell at a lower price point because of how their demand curve looks on the classic Marshallian supply and demand graph. This market structure increases consumption and lowers prices.

For this reason, medicare for all is a market based health care policy which only works because of supply and demand.

Forest fires burn across the American west. Hurricanes ravage the gulf coast. Australia loses millions of animals. The coral reefs are getting bleached and dying. Fossil fuels fund regimes which harm their people. Climate change is here. Climate change is real.

The clock is ticking to end climate change. We need to act now, and we need to make the actions we do work as soon as possible. We need to reduce fossil fuel consumption as much as we can, as soon as we can, everywhere in the world.

Technology has advanced considerably over the last 20 years, electric cars can travel over 300 miles on a single charge, solar power installations are going in around the world and the cost of solar has plummeted. Working from home is becoming more feasible, and we have all the tools we need to make this world transition to renewable energy.

Most people know that global warming is real, and that it is a problem. In order to make people match that concern with actual actions, we need to make it more economical for people to use renewable energy as opposed to fossil fuels. We need to do this swiftly, and we need to have a plan now.

Fortunately, in order to get most people to switch, we need to simply make it less expensive to use renewables than fossil fuels. and there are two ways to do that. Either the government can significantly subsidize renewable energy, or the government can make burning fossil fuels more expensive. At the end of the day it is the same thing because of the substitution effect.

There are only two questions remaining, first of all, which government programs will reduce carbon pollution the most for the smallest amount of money in the shortest amount of time, and second, will a policy dilute resources from other necessary programs?

When it comes to both of these questions, the obvious answer is of course a carbon tax. A carbon tax is the most efficient way to reduce pollution, it doesn’t dilute funds from other necessary programs, and it doesn’t favor one source of energy over the other. Maybe you live in a very windy area, in that case windmills make sense. Maybe you live in Florida, or Texas, or even Washington (to be honest) in which case solar panels are a very sensible and economical choice.

Most importantly, we need to pass a policy like this as soon as possible. As soon as the filibuster is abolished, we need to pass the bill proposed by Citizens Climate Lobby which is fully written out, ready to work, and will start making an immediate impact as soon as it is passed. Learn more about their policy proposal here: Citizens Climate Lobby

I prefer the plan by Citizens Climate Lobby because it hits all of the marks, 1. it exists, 2. it will work quickly, 3. it’s cheap.

My first point is because the Green New Deal still has not been fully written up. It is impossible to know exactly how much it will cost and exactly how much pollution it will reduce before it is written into a final draft as a real bill. A climate change bill needs to have these details flushed out, and we need to be able to set each proposal next to each other so we can determine the bang per buck of each proposal, and how long it will take us to get to any of our goals. Until the Green New Deal is finished, and it is studied to understand how quick it will work and how much it will cost per ton of carbon reduced, it is just a pipe dream. Also, it doesn’t take over two years to move policy from an idea to a final draft. We have other policies ready to go right now which are completed and have real estimates on how much carbon emissions will be cut.

The fact of the matter is carbon taxes are the most efficient way to reduce carbon pollution. There is no way any policy is going to beat a carbon tax on cost effectiveness simply through subsidizing renewable energy.

Second, carbon taxes win on speed. The legislature passes a carbon tax, the tax is implemented, and it costs more to pollute. Basic economic theory teaches us that when a good is more expensive, people consume less than they did before. With a subsidy, you have to start by allocating those funds (which can take years) and then you have to setup an agency to distribute those funds, and then you need to allocate those funds appropriately. Carbon taxes are simply faster.

Third, it is cheap. as found in that study by The IET and many many others over the last decade.

Please join Citizens Climate Lobby and work to pass real legislation which is based on science, we know will work, and will be equitable, fair, and effective.

We simply don’t have time to wait.

The ideal path which I want America to go down sees President Biden drop his crusade for bipartisanship, and instead focus on passing Democratic policies which got him elected in the first place. By following the two step plan of student loan forgiveness and restarting the agencies which would have prevented or at least slowed COVID, Democrats can increase their majorities in both houses and hopefully get legislation done next year. What is frustrating is that this path is so easy and it would work if it was done and then used on the campaign trail. New appointments to the Supreme Court and all Federal judgeships will be more moderate than our current bench, which will preserve the gains which we have made so far through future court decisions. By maintaining a strong Democratic majority in Congress we will then be able to pass important legislation to make a better world.

This is what I want.

The other path which could happen is where President Biden does not use his authority to forgive student loans and prevent future COVID outbreaks. Democrats see a drop in voter turnout in 2022 because Democrats are not mobilized, but Republicans are mobilized over mask mandates, which is already occurring. The attempted coup at the capitol building was to show their voters that they stand in favor of what is quick and easy, not right and verified by science. Democrats have their asses whooped in the 2022 midterms, losing both the House and Senate.

Republicans campaign as hard as possible in 2024, and combined with voter discrimination laws which President Biden refuses to successfully fight through filibuster reform (which he could do through the bully pulpit if he wanted to) they will have a real shot at winning. All they have to do is win the states they won in 2020 and flip Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all states which Trump won by narrow margins in 2016. Republicans only need a successful third party candidate to drain votes away from Biden in 2024 and they can absolutely win, especially if Democrats have little to point to in order to get their voters out to vote. The more Biden shows a willingness to compromise with Republicans, the more of his base will decide not to vote.

Republicans take a trifecta in 2024, with the Democrats in disarray with no unifying issue to campaign on. Republicans start by moving on the Affordable Care Act through Congress. All they need to do next to get rid of the Affordable Care Act is a case as well put together as King v. Burwell, and by effectively flipping the votes of Kennedy and Ginsburg (since they are no longer on the court) they have a 5-4 victory against the Affordable Care Act.

They already have the justices to do this, if they make sure they have reasonable standing, the ACA is dead.

President Biden needs to mobilize his base, and he needs to do it soon.