Bipartisan consensus

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-tiktok-ban-bill/

The last chapter in Howard Zinn’s book A People’s History of the United States is called “Bipartisan Consensus” and is mostly him talking about the Clinton administration’s privatization of Conrail, deregulation of banks, and other right-wing policies.

In the last 250 years of American history, a New Democrat has won a majority of the popular vote for the presidency one time, in 2020 in the midst of a pandemic. This is despite all but one candidate from the last 35 years being a New Democrat. We could have run a potato against Trump during the COVID pandemic and won.

As a startup owner and hosting my own website, I am very disturbed by the willingness of Democrats and Republicans to support the banning of individual companies in bills of attainder. This is wrong. I am disturbed that the Republican-controlled Supreme Court let the bill of attainder stand.

I posted a full thread on Bluesky going through the complicated legal proceedings that led to the TikTok ban becoming law. https://bsky.app/profile/stidmatt.bsky.social/post/3lg42cpcozk2v

I support the United States passing reasonable laws on data privacy and security. I am wary of requiring popups like the EU does, but I do support reasonable laws requiring companies to protect consumer data which is included in the GDPR.

I am an American and I am opposed to bills of attainder. I am opposed to laws forcing foreign-owned companies to sell to American stockholders.

As an economist, I have a heavy bias against protectionism.

I’m disturbed by how many Americans support a TikTok ban, based on this data from 2023 where over 60% of respondents supported the ban. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1376628/us-adults-opinion-on-banning-tiktok/

However, as more Americans became familiar with the reality of this ban and the precedence it sets for the future, only 32% of Americans continued to support the ban into 2024. Most of its support is from Republicans. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/05/support-for-a-us-tiktok-ban-continues-to-decline-and-half-of-adults-doubt-it-will-happen/#:~:text=Republicans%20and%20Republican%2Dleaning%20independents,supported%20the%20government%20banning%20TikTok.

What Americans do support though is reasonable laws governing data privacy. 72% of Americans and a majority of Americans from both parties support extending and modernizing data privacy laws. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/10/18/views-of-data-privacy-risks-personal-data-and-digital-privacy-laws/

The European Union has more advanced data privacy laws than the United States, and instead of banning TikTok outright, they are bringing them to court and demanding that TikTok comply with the law or leave the EU. First, they have to pay large fines giving them a chance to do the right thing. https://www.reuters.com/technology/tiktok-5-other-chinese-firms-hit-by-eu-privacy-complaints-2025-01-16/

Infuriatingly, there was a proposal in Congress in 2022 to modernize American data privacy laws in a way that would apply to every company. It was not even referred to a committee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Data_Privacy_and_Protection_Act

When we elect leaders, they need to be above the fray. They need to be willing to focus not on getting along with everyone or just doing things because they are popular, but doing what is right. We need people who will make it clear what their values are and then use their values to determine how they vote in the future. Popular opinion is easily swayed by the media, and people can be easily convinced into contradictory opinions. This is exactly why we don’t have direct democracy, instead voting for leaders who can be above the noise in mass media, and spend the time to understand issues and ideally guide us towards a better future. But democracy only works if politicians are willing to put the values they were elected on above constantly shifting political opinion on whatever issue is being pushed by pundits and grifts. Democracy only works when politicians are willing to stand for what is right.

Joe Biden has made it clear over his career that his primary value is unity. He cares most about working with Republicans, no matter who is harmed in the process. He is willing and has regularly thrown his allies to the side throughout his entire career to try to make his vision of bipartisanship a reality, and he has done so with his TikTok ban, which he supports.

In the vision of unity, we will now see many of Joe Biden’s policies continue under the next presidency of Donald Trump. Our Ukraine policy will remain mostly unchanged from before the election. We will restrict how they can use weapons beyond the rules of war, giving Putin an advantage on the battlefield. Our Israeli policy will not change. Our policy towards the EU will remain unchanged as well. If we were going to withdraw from NATO, we would have done it when we had a Republican trifecta in 2017.

The two candidates are so similar in their viewpoints that they are both claiming credit for the ceasefire in Gaza, which is clearly modeled almost exactly off the proposal Biden made almost a year ago.

The Biden presidency had one job which was to heal this country from Trumpism. At least this is what I believe most Democratic voters wanted, including myself. Instead, he chose a different path, to seek out unity with the Republican party and bring the two parties together. In doing so he has not brought the Republican Party away from the abyss, but under his leadership, the Democratic Party has drifted further right as we see through the bill of attainder against TikTok. He successfully convinced every member of his caucus to vote in favor of a bill of attainder, and his most important proposals such as the John Lewis Voting Rights Act failed. Expanding voting rights is still one of the most important issues in America and it failed because of the filibuster, which Biden supports.

Because when it comes down to it Biden has always valued unity above human rights.

That is very dangerous.

Now we will have unity by switching back to the second Trump presidency.

So, by Biden’s own metrics in terms of a president accomplishing his goals after being elected, Biden has successfully accomplished his most important life goal and we have now achieved unity in the United States, exemplified by the votes for the TikTok ban.

Nothing will fundamentally change.

Unity.

Unity.

Ceasefire deal overview

The ceasefire is pretty simple when you get down to it.
Hamas will release all hostages. Israel will release most hostages. Israel ends its blockade on Gaza. Hamas will not rebuild its military abilities.

That’s pretty much it.

It does not solve the fundamental problems that underlie the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These problems are:

  • Giving Palestinians voting rights in a UN member state.
  • It does not define and enforce solid borders between Israel and Palestine. Solid borders do not require a closed border, just clear boundaries of jurisdiction.
  • It does not grant Palestinians any rights when they are faced by Israeli citizens or authorities.

So, in short, I think this entire war was designed to put Trump back into office.

  • This benefits Putin by reducing aid to Ukraine.
  • It protects Netanyahu by preventing his impeachment which was about to happen in 2023.
  • It protects Trump by putting him in office.
  • It harms Israelis by not putting in place a permanent framework for peace in the region.
  • It harms Palestinians by not removing Hamas and giving the Palestinian Authority a seat at the UN, which is the only way to undermine Hamas.
  • Terrorist organizations have benefited significantly by using this war to their advantage to recruit suicide bombers.
  • Iranian mullahs have benefited to consolidate power in Iran and portray the United States and Israel as the enemy.
  • Qatar has benefited enormously to portray themselves as mediator while Hamas’ leadership is safe in Doha.
  • Europe is significantly weakened by a second Trump presidency.

It’s the best we can do at this point in time. There is not a chance in hell of Netanyahu abandoning the settlements in the West Bank. Keeping Gaza as a fiefdom of Hamas strengthens his party by allowing them to fight when it is politically advantageous. It will not bring in democracy in Gaza, and Hamas will continue to rule Hamas. If you think that Hamas will not rearm over the next few years… I have a bridge to sell you.

The only silver lining to this is the bombing of Gaza will temporarily stop and rebuild.

Sorry if this doesn’t make me super happy, it’s better than nothing, but it has not ended the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Nothing has fundamentally changed.

Gaza Hostage Crisis Resolution

Almost titled this Iranian Hostage Crisis 2024 edition.

The stages of this event are:

  1. Yay! The war can end and there can finally be elections in Israel and Palestine. Nothing good was ever going to come from this war.
  2. Hold on… the timing of this is very similar to the Iranian Hostage Crisis in 1980-1981…
  3. Oh shit… Likud is in the lead…

There will be cables. There is a lot of information on this which will not be public for a long time to come.

But if I were a betting man I would be putting my money on the purpose of all of this was to keep Netanyahu in power and remove Biden from office from the very beginning.

I also have deduced from the reading I have done that Hamas and Likud deliberately time their conflict to keep each other in power. They have been doing this since Hamas was founded.

What happened to the point of this war being to “destroy Hamas?”

We shall see…

I stand by my stance that a strictly military victory is impossible to work in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There needs to be a democratic process involving all people in the concerned region.

I am just very wary about the timing.

If I am right that this war was always about removing Biden from office and keeping Netanyahu in power, then Biden literally sowed the seeds of his own destruction by funding Netanyahu’s war, plus he is really bad at choosing his friends.

France 24

Deutsche Welle

 

A Message from the New Democrats

A conversation with the New Democrats.

To all the people who have lost their homes in California, we are sorry fires keep breaking out on federal land. We have not restored the Forest Service budget since 2017.

But you must understand, as part of our master strategy, we need to compromise with the Republicans to move things through. In the long term, this will end up being better for all Americans because… well… compromise is the highest virtue of society.

We must get along with our neighbors no matter who they are. Being friendly with others is the most paramount value.

Oh, your dog died after your house was engulfed by a forest fire? I’m truly sorry, but there’s nothing we can do about it.

Your dog gave his life for his country. We are working towards a better society for all, you must understand this.

What better society? Well, you see, as part of our negotiation tactic we cannot show our hand. We need to keep our cards close as we are part of very complicated negotiations which are absolutely necessary in order to maintain control of government for the future. We cannot tell you our entire strategy, because that would make us look weak.

Hold on, I’m getting a call from the Kremlin, they are saying that if we put boots on the ground in Ukraine they are going to bomb New York. Let me just apologize to the Ukrainians that while their grandmothers are being raped and killed by the Russians that we just can’t prevent it and they are a sacrifice as part of our greater plan towards Unity.

Unity is the paramount value of the Southern Democratic Party. The tall blade of grass is the first to get mowed, so don’t stand out.

Damn, hold on, I just saw on the news that every Democrat who lost their seat in the midterms in 2022 was a member of our caucus, regardless of the political swing of the district. Why won’t you just accept we are right?

Fuck, Elizabeth Warren keeps calling us to restore funding for the Forest Service, she is so annoying, hold on.

Yes, Senator McConnell? Oh yeah, sure, we can scrap the funding for post natal care from the funding bill, yes we do believe you,  you won’t filibuster it now? Great. I’ll call Senator Manchin and tell him to kill that welfare money. See you at the golf club on Saturday.

Sorry, where were we? We need you to accept on faith that we know what we are doing and things will work out. Trust us. The election is in a few months and we will definitely win this election.

*A few months later*

Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote.

You fucking progressives didn’t vote for us again? You are traitors to the party, and you might as well be… oh wait, hold on, I’m getting a call from my staffer.

WHAT DO YOU MEAN MY HIGHEST VOTE TURNOUT WAS FROM THOSE FUCKING COMMIES! Where are the middle class white suburbanite families?! You mean they swung to Trump? What happened with college students? Oh right, they still voted for us overall, but at a lower amount. Ok, people who grew up under Comrade Obama still vote Democrat, damn. What about people who grew up under my good friend Bill? They voted Republican!? What is it, the Defense of Marriage Act, Rwanda Genocide, or deregulation of Wall Street? Fuck. Who kept their seats?

Fuck, AOC is still in Congress. We won in West Virginia, right? God dammit, we lost West Virginia. Arizona? Oh, we have that socialist Gallego in there now. Both Manchin and Sinema are gone, damn, I liked them. Gallego is going to be such a pain in the ass.

Our numbers are thinning, Trump won the election, our most reasonable Senators are gone, and Trump has a trifecta.

It looks like our strategy failed.

 

It’s time for a change. Vote progressive.

Trump’s keys

Trump will be reinaugurated in 9 days, and there are already telling signs of what the Republican nominee’s keys might look like in 2028.

It is unlikely Republicans will have a lot of keys in 2028, no matter who is on the ballot.

 

Year Party mandate No primary contest Incumbent seeking re-election No third party Strong short-term economy perception Strong long-term economy perception Major policy change No social unrest No scandal No foreign or military failure Major foreign or military success Charismatic incumbent Uncharismatic challenger False keys
2024 False True False True False False False True True False False False True 8
2028 TBD in 2026 Likely False False unknown False False unknown False False False False False unknown at least 8

Trump is going to have a lot of false keys. The only way an incumbent could seek re-election is if JD Vance becomes president at some point during Trump’s second term. I think it is highly unlikely Trump will have a strong economy after his performance his first term. This will lead to social unrest and his handling of problems will generate at least one scandal. I don’t think he has the ability to create a solution in Israel, Palestine, or Ukraine, so there will not be any major foreign policy or military successes due to him, though there will likely be at least one failure.

Neither Trump nor JD Vance are charismatic.

It will be challenging for Republicans to win in 2028.

I’m also modifying the keys slightly to not be actual economic indicators but the perception of the economy. If more people perceive the economy is doing poorly, this matters more than actual economic performance. When we flip these keys for Harris in 2024 to what people perceived, do not give her a key for a non-existent foreign policy success, and BBB did not make any major permanent changes to US code aside from a lot of pork barrel spending, I realize she had 8 false keys.

The Republican media operation to make people perceive the economy as doing poorly combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the support of the Republican party was successful in terms of getting Trump back into office.

It has never mattered before economic perception vs. reality because in the past they have been aligned strongly, but in our highly fractious media environment, and with social media spreading nonsense regularly, many people are not exposed to real data anymore and this is reflected in their extremist politics. This was not an issue when people read actual newspapers. But now it is.

So if Trump gets his way and we have the Trump tariffs during his presidency this will cause him to flip two keys to false immediately and permanently. He will not repeal his tariffs once they are in place. This will cause the economy to stutter.

The best we can hope for is Trump puts his tariffs in place this year, this burns up his political capital preventing him from doing further legislative damage. The impact on the economy will be severely negative, leading to his struggle to get anything else done.

I doubt the Republicans will win in 2028, unless if Democrats run a New Democrat, in which it will be a tossup.

Doubt me? Remember President Gore, President Kerry, and President Hillary Clinton?

Biden’s legacy

In 10 days Biden’s legacy will be cemented and Donald Trump will again be President of the United States. Trump will in his second term be the same as he was in his first, mostly ineffective, but bent on the goal of dismantling every piece of progress from his predecessor’s administration.

Legislative achievements, Domestic policy

Biden’s legislative achievements are far less impressive than those of Barack Obama, but there are some important laws in their own right.

The Inflation Reduction Act and American Rescue Plan are on par with the stimulus package President Obama signed in 2009. They are also on par with the 5 Cornoovirus Relief Acts Trump signed in 2020. They provided immediate temporary relief to a struggling economy, but they did not fundamentally change any laws for the long term.

President Biden signed Juneteenth into law and signed the Emmett Till Antilynching Act. He codified gay marriage. These are his signature legacies in social policy.

No major economic laws were signed which significantly changed regulation, and no new major programs were created, though many were proposed.

In terms of legislative accomplishments, nothing has changed from when I made my ranking in 2022. He was good on domestic policy, but not revolutionary.

Foreign policy

His foreign policy has been defined by three crises which I believe are connected.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan was supposed to be a success and we were told the Taliban would not lead to power. Either the administration was deeply misinformed or the President lied. The way we continued the withdrawal even when it was obvious Afghanistan was under attack with us leaving was a disaster. This was a continuation of Trump’s policy.

6 months later, Russia intensified its invasion of Ukraine. We have provided aid, though with significant strings attached. The restrictions have prevented Ukraine from winning the war and have increased costs in human lives. We only diverted from the Clinton/Bush/Obama/Trump policy of avoidance of supporting Ukraine fully until after the election.

The War in Gaza has no clearly defined end state. President Biden proposed a ceasefire which the Israeli government refused without any counter-proposal. There is no peace plan for Israel today. There is no clearly defined end state when the war will end. Biden has failed to bring peace to the Middle East. Not just that but his sending of American weapons has led to the largest escalation of death in Israel and Palestine since the Nakba in 1948. It has been a total failure. We continue Trump’s policy of completely supporting Netanyahu’s premiership and we likely will until he is dead.

The only success has been the deposition of Assad, which is undeniably the only good foreign policy accomplishment while Biden has been President. We have increased aid to Ukraine and removed some strings. Russia has had to readjust its military aid to the Assad regime, so Syria won.

1/4, a 25% success score. Failure.

Executive actions and appointments

There were very few executive actions to mention. The big ticket proposals which his base supported by and large were not signed into law. They will all be repealed by Donald Trump, so they are not worth mentioning.

His appointments to the courts have been superb, and appointing Lina Khan to the FTC is a win for the middle class.

Unfortunately, if we wanted a Democratic majority in the Supreme Court we needed to win in 2016 or the 2014 Senate election, but we lost both. There are only 3 liberals on the Supreme Court today, and it will not flip until Clarence Thomas, Alito, and Roberts are all replaced as long they are replaced by Democrats. So if we control the Presidency consistently from 2029 to 2050 there is a small chance we might see a liberal Supreme Court again.

Or we could see more resignations like we saw from Anthony Kennedy which can push the timeline even further in the future.

If Clinton had won in 2016 we would have had a liberal Supreme Court.

Short of an expansion of the Supreme Court or impeaching a current conservative justice, there is no realistic chance there will be a liberal court for the next quarter century. The courts have been fully captured by the Republican Party.

But her emails…

The Elephant in the room

The biggest issue with Biden’s presidential legacy is how he will be succeeded by Donald Trump in 10 days. Over the last 4 years, Biden has failed to convince the American people that Democratic government is significantly better than Republicans, leading to yet another Republican trifecta in 10 days.

He harassed his friends and coddled his adversaries. Americans now need visas to travel to the Schengen Area and the United Kingdom. Biden’s utter incompetence at diplomacy has built more walls than Donald Trump has seriously proposed.

In 2021 Biden had the opportunity of a lifetime to show that he stood with the American people, our allies, and human rights. Instead, he has shown that legal restrictions on military aid do not matter. He has shown that the reality on the ground with military engagement does not trump the statements in unratified treaties. While Israel can do basically whatever with the weapons we give them, Ukraine has onerous restrictions well beyond the law. The double standard is staggering.

The economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine cannot be overstated. Shutting down food exports from Ukraine sent global food prices spiraling, while sanctions on Russia sent the global price of oil and gas through the roof. The sanctions have been working, albeit much slower than most would like. This stage of the war has now lasted for three years. For comparison, the Invasion of Sicily which was the straw that broke the camel’s back in World War II happened only two years before Hitler killed himself in a bunker. The Invasion of Ukraine could have and should have been won by now. That will prove to be Biden’s most enduring legacy.

His legislative achievements have been modest, with nothing revolutionary.

None of his executive actions will last.

The fundamental problem of the Biden presidency is that after the rife unbridled corruption of the First Trump Presidency, which was in many ways a continuation of the Presidency of George W. Bush which climaxed with increasing visa restrictions around the world and the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression, enough Americans are somehow still convinced that a Republican presidency will do a better job than the Democrats.

The messaging from the administration has been so poor that many Americans truly believe the economy is doing poorly even though on almost every metric except the price of housing the economy is doing extraordinarily well, especially compared with our international peers. We have the strongest major economy in the world today, yet many Americans believe our economy is doing poorly. We are in a weird situation where people know they are doing well but believe the economy is poor overall.

His foreign policy has been one failure after another with no major successes. Ukraine is still fighting for their lives and there is no realistic path to peace in the Middle East. The only solution for Israel and Palestine is to pull out at this point. They are not interested in peace.

In 50 years Biden will be a mostly forgotten presidency. No major laws to remember him by, and he will not be the oldest president ever, with no major accomplishments to his name. I doubt he will get a section in history books to himself. He is not a bad man, but as president, he has been average overall.

One of the most fundamental parts of being a politician is to convince people that you provide real answers to problems without creating more problems, at least more than your opponent. On this front, Biden has utterly failed. This is only the second time a Republican has won a plurality of the popular vote in the last 35 years.

To put this in perspective, Bill Clinton deregulated Wall Street, sold off Amtrak, stood by as Rwanda had a genocide, criminalized gay marriage, and even still more Americans voted for Al Gore than George W. Bush.

Joe Biden couldn’t even manage that.

2024 is the first time a Republican has won the popular vote following a Democratic President since 1980.

Like Jimmy Carter, Joe Biden was primarily brought down by foreign policy. Jimmy Carter failed to resolve the hostage crisis. Joe Biden failed to end the War in Ukraine and bring peace to the Middle East. Jimmy Carter managed to administer the Camp David Accords. Joe Biden couldn’t manage that.

The biggest and most enduring legacy of Joe Biden will always be the second Presidency of Donald Trump.

In his own words

There many immortal quotes by Presidents which reverberate over time and define their legacy. The most famous are of course Kennedy’s speech about the moon, Roosevelt’s declaring the only thing we have to fear is fear itself, or Lincoln’s immortal Gettysburg Address.

When it comes to Biden when looking at his moderate legislative accomplishments and his foreign policy, no one can summarize the Biden Presidency more accurately than Joe Biden himself.

Nothing will fundamentally change.

He was preceded by Trump and he will be succeeded by Trump. We have had no major changes from the foreign policy of Trump’s first term. The expansion of visas globally has accelerated under Biden’s time in office. The major civil rights victories of the last 50 years were all under Obama’s presidency. We had a Republican Supreme Court entering this century, and we still do 25 years later. There is no sign of peace in the Middle East, the War in Ukraine still rages.

This is Joe Biden’s legacy.

Promises made. Promises kept.

It doesn’t really matter if its causation

Sure… there may be a clear correlation between people who throw their money solely into annuities and bonds going bankrupt, but are we sure it is causal?

Sure… GDP per capita, long life expectancy, democracy, low corruption, and high press freedom are highly correlated, but how do you know it is causal?

Sure… vaccinated people have fewer instances of catching disease, spreading disease when they get sick, and have less severe symptoms, but how are we certain it is causal?

Correlation doesn’t equal causation! Sciencism is anti-human!

All of this is absolute nonsense.

We have no alternative universe to test gravity. How do we know gravity exists?

First of all, people never say correlation doesn’t equal causation about things they believe in, only things they doubt.

Second, it is the most annoying phrase in the English language.

Third, it doesn’t really matter.

There are multiple ways scientists use to find information. Sometimes scientists can do double blind experiments, setup identical situations in two Petri dishes, and change one variable and see how the bacteria react to one change. This gives very precise information and is great when it can be done. But most fields don’t have the ability to have granular control like microbiology.

The obvious problem is in practically all of physics. You can’t create a parallel universe. So you cannot create two situations with and without fundamental forces of the universe to test how they impact things the same way a microbiologist can test the impact of various environmental factors in infections.

Fortunately, there are other ways to run experiments that show very clearly that things are related with enough certainty to determine that yes, there probably is a causation between sex and babies.

Statistics does a pretty good job of controlling for variables in large datasets to the point where only a fool would deny the findings of science.

If there is an alert that a heating pad in my house is known to malfunction and create a house fire, I’m not going to snarkily say “correlation doesn’t equal causation” and continue to use it… I’m going to throw the damn thing in the trash.

So yeah, while it’s nice to know causation when we see instances of clear trends it’s really not worth it to say “You haven’t proven causation so you have nothing”. Maybe you want to try running the analysis again while putting in more variables, but ultimately if someone shows that using a website correlates with your credit card number showing up on the black market, maybe instead of saying “you haven’t proven it” you should just get off it and use a more reputable website, even if they haven’t exposed the actual emails from the website to the black market.

It’s nice when we can definitively say one action causes another action, but ultimately, it’s not necessary to create a parallel universe to know that magnetism exists.

Trump’s second foreign policy

Let’s compare Marco Rubio’s positions vs those of Joe Biden

Issue Biden/Blinken Trump/Rubio
Israel Unconditional support Unconditional support
Ukraine Restrictions on aid that can be used Restrictions on aid
Visa policy Restrictive Restrictive
Europe Ambivalent Ambivalent

There are large and important differences between Biden and Trump regarding domestic policy, and we have seen this in his polices.

Nothing fundamentally changed when Biden was elected regarding foreign policy, and there is reason to believe nothing will fundamentally change, at least when it comes to foreign policy.

Recipe for success

Since finishing my degree in the field, I’ve spent the last ten years of my life poring over political economic data. I’ve read many books, but most importantly, I’ve pored over large datasets and come to some conclusions.

Press freedom, democracy, corruption, income, inequality, life expectancy, education levels, and visa restrictions are closely connected.

If you are in a country that is already high-income and free, defend your extant institutions and support further crackdowns on corruption. You probably have a fairly open visa policy, or you are Anglo.

However, if you are in a country that is low-income, undemocratic, and poorly educated, where do you begin?

Start with democracy. This is what we find in Latin America and Eastern Europe, the most successful development stories in the world today. Increase press freedom and crack down on corruption.

Once you have democratic institutions that are responsive to your citizens, you can boost your economy by keeping children in school through high school. Every additional year in school increases lifetime earnings exponentially.

While increasing the quantity of education youth receive, crack down on corrupt institutions that keep people in poverty. Enable everyone access to a diverse market economy.

That’s the order of operations.

Transitioning to a high-income economy is impossible without first increasing the mean years of schooling. There is a clear logarithmic relationship between mean years of schooling and GDP per capita.

However, with a well-educated workforce, you also need to crack down on corruption for ordinary people to have access to legal institutions that allow them to build wealth.

With more wealth comes longer life expectancies.

This is how countries can transition to high-income democracies.

Relevance to current events

Georgia and Ukraine are doing exactly what they need to do to continue the path they have been on for the last twenty years. Georgia needs to overthrow its Georgian Nightmare, and Ukraine needs to be able to send the Russian Army back into Russia. They will not develop further if they fail in this goal first.

Other countries around the world should follow their example. But it cannot start from outside. It must start from within.

If foreign armies or paramilitaries are invading a country, it is good to support them, such as how the United States has supported Afghanistan and Ukraine. While we can protect allies from external threats, and we should, we cannot determine how they develop their internal mechanisms.

Once they have established a democracy, build up education, and grow their economies to build strong societies.

Three terms in a row

Shower thoughts… how many times has a single party held the presidency for at least three terms in a row?

  • Reagan – Bush: 1981-1993
  • Roosevelt – Truman: 1933-1953
  • Harding – Coolidge – Hoover: 1921-1933
  • McKinley – Roosevelt – Taft: 1897-1913
  • Lincoln – Johnson – Grant – Hayes – Garfield – Arthur: 1861-1885
  • Jefferson – Madison – Monroe – Adams – Jackson – Van Buren: 1801-1841

It has been 36 years since the presidency stayed in the hands of one party after two terms.

This, however, gets more interesting when we consider that Bush and Trump lost the popular vote in their first elections, meaning we can add the following for times when a party has won the popular vote three times in a row:

  • Obama – Clinton – Biden: 2009-2025
  • Clinton – Gore: 1993 – 2005
  • Cleveland: 1885-1897
  • Lincoln – Johnson – Grant: 1861 – 1877

We must also break up the Lincon – Arthur streak because Hayes lost the popular vote.

The 2016, 2000, and 1892 elections are interesting for two reasons. First, the popular vote winner did not win the Electoral College. Second, they formed three times where a party won a plurality of the vote three times in a row but did not have the presidency for three terms.

How many times has a party won the popular vote three times?

Not all pluralities are majorities. A majority is when a candidate wins at least 50% of outstanding votes, while a plurality is when a candidate wins the most votes.

There have been nine popular vote plurality streaks lasting at least 12 years in US history:

  • 1828 – 1832: Jackson-Van Buren, Democrats
  • 1860-1872: Lincoln – Grant
  • 1884-1892: Cleveland
  • 1896 – 1908: McKinley – Roosevelt – Taft
  • 1920 – 1928: Harding – Coolidge – Hoover
  • 1932 – 1948: Roosevelt – Truman
  • 1980-1988: Reagan – Bush
  • 1992 – 2000: Clinton – Gore
  • 2008 – 2020: Obama – Clinton – Biden

There have been six popular vote majority streaks lasting at least 12 years in US history:

  • 1828 – 1832: Jackson-Van Buren, Democrats
  • 1864 – 1872: Lincoln – Grant
  • 1896 – 1908: McKinley – Roosevelt – Taft
  • 1920 – 1928: Harding – Coolidge – Hoover
  • 1932 – 1944: Roosevelt
  • 1980-1988: Reagan – Bush

Hillary Clinton in 2016, Bill Clinton in 1996, Harry Truman in 1948, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and Abraham Lincoln in 1860 all failed to win a majority of the popular vote.

It has been a long time since a political party has won a majority of the popular vote for the presidency three times in a row.