Supply Side vs Demand Side is Lazy

There is a popular idea in popular economics discussions that the left wing is on the demand side and for the working class, and the right wing is on the supply side and for the bourgeoisie.

This could not be farther from the truth.

Housing costs

In the case of zoning, zoning is a supply-side policy that keeps the supply of housing low. As the population increases, the demand for housing increases. Without the supply of new housing being created for natural population growth, people either have to emigrate to keep demand the same, which is difficult, or prices will increase in the most desirable places to live. Increase demand, stagnant supply, increase price.

Restrictive single-family home R1 zoning is a supply-side reform that benefits landlords.

Option 1 is to increase taxes to subsidize low-income housing, which in the real world means a sales tax, which would disproportionately impact low-income people. So, do you tax more low-income people to subsidize rent for low-income people? That does not make any sense to me. Increasing property tax will mean increased rent for everyone who rents and more seniors who have to sell their homes. New York has done this, and the two things that make New York relatively affordable are the subway and the competition between small local businesses, drastically reducing other parts of the family budget. Rents have increased substantially under the demand side system of subsidized rent, a boon of simply giving tax money directly to landlords. That is all subsidized housing means in practice. It’s a massive policy failure. Let’s not replicate it. So, is the supply side pro-developer?
Option 2 is to make our cities miserable, and the demand to live in them goes down, but nobody wants that.
Option 3 is to increase supply faster than demand, and the price will decrease. Reverse the supply-side gift to landlords, which has been restrictive zoning.
I do not know of another serious option. Housing shows how the supply side = bad, and the demand side = good dogma is anti-progressive.

Carbon Tax

On the flip side, if you talk about something like a carbon tax to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels that cause climate change, the policy receives hate from both the left and the right. Pigouvian taxes reduce demand for a good which creates massive negative externalities… which means the right wing hates it because it is a tax, and the left wing hates it because it isn’t strictly spending more money to solve a problem. You get ridiculous policies like the California governor giving citizens gas cards of $200 to “offset the cost of gas,” which only increases gasoline demand, keeping prices high.

So, is a carbon tax a right-wing policy? Definitely not. It is a tax. Is it a left-wing policy? From the right wing, they see it as left-wing from a simplistic tax=bad viewpoint. From the left wing, they see it as being not demand side enough because it’s not spending money, which makes it conservative. They claim that it only increases costs on families, even if the money is spent on a universal basic income as they do in Canada (they call it a rebate) or in Alaska, but the far left still hates it. The only people who support the carbon tax end up being environmental economists who spend their entire lives, but what do they know?

The options for climate change are varied. We can do deadlines (“I love deadlines, I love the whooshing sound they make as they pass by” ~ Douglas Adams), which can encourage people not to do enough now because we will take care of it later.

Spending more money on renewable energy increases renewable energy consumption, but this will never lead to a 1-1 relationship between increased electricity production and reduction in carbon emissions because the substitution effect is never 100%. Some of it will be induced demand. On top of this, most of this money will probably be raised via a regressive sales, property, or payroll tax. It is highly unlikely this will come from progressive taxes, so it is inefficient and increases the tax burden on low-income people. Renewable energy subsidies are better than nothing but far less than we should aim for.

Carbon sequestration is great when combined with a carbon tax, but it can be used by companies to offset the emissions they are already spewing simply. Carbon sequestration should reduce carbon already in the air; otherwise, it is usually greenwashing. Encourage carbon sequestration in the form of policies like biochar, though, because biochar is awesome!

Only the carbon tax has the benefit of being a policy to reduce emissions immediately; it is direct, the substitution effect does not apply, and it cannot be used as simple greenwashing.

So, is a carbon tax a supply-side or demand-side solution?

It’s both!

Health care

Healthcare costs are going up for two reasons:

  1. An older population means more healthcare demand. Increase demand, price goes up.
  2. Drug patents give companies monopolies on drugs.

So we can’t do much with the first issue. Killing seniors on their 85th birthday just seems wrong to me. I don’t know. Maybe I’m a snowflake.

Increasing health care supply through better wages increases prices, but that’s not the main reason prices are increasing.

The government can also have generous subsidies to increase the number of nurses and doctors graduating from college, which is a “left-wing” supply-side solution. This helps health care professionals’ wages from ballooning, saving the government money.

The main reason healthcare costs are increasing is that many life-saving drugs are under patent, and the monopoly granted by the patent increases the costs when no monopsony purchases the drug or the insurance company refuses to use its power to pay a lower rate. Shortening health care patents is another “left-wing” supply-side solution.

So, either abandon patents or let Medicare negotiate drug prices. Simply ballooning government health care expenditure forever for smaller and smaller benefits is not a good solution, because you will eventually run into the issue of not enough doctors.

From a pure demand-side solution, we can just spend as much money as we want on private insurance and private drug companies and have that written off as tax breaks for employer-sponsored health insurance, which is a “right-wing” demand-side solution. It is right-wing because it is corporate welfare.

Health care requires a combination of demand (universal health insurance) and supply (free college for doctors and nurses) to keep costs under control.

Railroads and other infrastructure

If infrastructure is owned by a private monopoly, you can either:

  1. Regulate it to the point where the private monopoly has no agency, e.g., the Japan model.
  2. Just own the infrastructure, e.g., what most of the world does.
  3. Let the private monopoly operate with few restrictions, e.g., the American model.

The first two work well. You get great service at affordable prices through this supply-side solution which benefits consumers.

The third one means you harness the full impact of the private monopoly graph, which gives you less of a good thing and at higher prices.

Hooray!

The demand-side solution is to subsidize the railroads until we pay the price demanded by the monopoly and the government pays the cost. This is expensive and does not work.

Fun!

If the market can be broken into a competitive market, do that, but that is not true with most infrastructure. A track from Los Angeles to Phoenix is not a substitute for one from Chicago to Minneapolis. In this situation, dividing monopolies up is not a real solution.

The supply-side solution, in this case, is to nationalize the railroads.

So supply-side = left wing?

Sometimes, yes.

Education

Education has many clear positive benefits. It increases people’s incomes, increases longevity, and educated people are more likely to vote. It’s the cheapest way to increase the quality of life for the entire population. These are clear positive externalities, which is why subsidizing education (within reason) to have more people go to college is good for society. This is a positive externality. Positive externalities are where demand-side policies make sense!

We can also increase the supply of education by building more universities so that more people can get a college education. This is another “left-wing” supply-side solution to a problem.

Conclusion

When we look at housing costs or climate change, we need to eliminate our mindset of demand side = good and supply side = bad, because that mindset usually only harms progressive movements. We need to look at problems holistically, analyze policies in full, and think about the long-term consequences of each policy.

Most economic problems are caused by either an imbalance of supply and demand, externality issues, or a principal-agent problem.

Tax cuts to big companies are a supply-side policy, and the one most people think of, but as we see in the preceding sections, many supply-side policies can benefit consumers.

The demand side, as well as corporate tax breaks for health insurance premiums, can benefit corporations while leaving consumers in the dark.

Not to be the annoying economist, but… it depends!

Once we identify whether a problem is a demand-side issue or a supply-side issue, we can then identify the solutions that are going to actually be effective with minimal side effects. Simple cheat sheet:

  1. Negative externality: tax the good or service to reduce consumption.
  2. Positive externality: consider subsidizing the good or service to reap those sweet, sweet, positive externalities.
  3. Monopoly: either end it through a break-up or nationalization or have the government use negotiating power to keep costs under control.

This is a better lens to analyze policy and is far less likely to cause undesired results.

Senate projections

Current situation

Joe Manchin and Karen Sinema are de facto Republicans and must be treated as such. Likewise, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are de facto Democrats and must be treated as such.

De facto 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate today.

Democrats win 2024

If Democrats win in 2024, we won’t lose any seats. We’ll flip Arizona, giving us 50 seats in the US Senate. Texas, Florida, and Indiana are tossups since the Republicans received less than 51% of the vote in those three states in 2018.

From this reality, two possibilities emerge: either the Democrats again perform well in 2026 or the Republicans perform well in 2026.

Democrats have 50 seats, Republicans 47, and there are 3 tossups.

Democrats then win again in 2026

Democrats pick up in North Carolina and Maine to give Democrats 52 seats in total.

Texas is again a tossup due to shifting demographics and poor performance for the Republicans in 2018.

Democrats have 52 seats, and Republicans have 44. There are four tossups in total, two in Texas and one each in Indiana and Florida.

Republicans then win in 2026

If Republicans have a good year in 2026 following a strong Democratic year in 2024, I believe this will make Georgia and Maine tossups. Georgia because it is in the Deep South and if there is poor voter turnout among African Americans, the Democrat will lose. I think no matter what happens, Maine is going to be a relatively easy pickup for the Democrats, given how Maine is part of New England and has liberal values which do not match those of the Republican Party.

Democrats have 49 seats, Republicans 46, and there are 5 tossups.

Republicans win in 2024

If Republicans win this year, however, it will be a very different story for the next four years.

The best Republicans can hope for is flipping Montana, but Democrats will flip Arizona. Nothing else changes.

This gives the Democrats 49 and Republicans 51 seats. There will be no overall change.

This is a substantial finding because if Democrats have a good year this year, it will be almost impossible for Republicans to regain control of the Senate in 2026! The Senate’s map favorability really does skew toward the Democrats this year.

Republicans win again in 2026

If the Republicans win again after winning in 2026, they will flip Georgia, but nothing else will change from the 2024 map. The biggest victory for Republicans is holding Maine, which is a stretch.

48 Democrats and 52 Republicans is the best the GOP can hope for in the next two Senate elections.

Democrats win in 2026 after Republican 2024

If the Democrats have a good year after the Republicans in 2024, I believe Democrats will then flip seats in Maine and North Carolina. Texas will be a toss-up.

51 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 1 tossup.

Overview

2024 result 2026 result D R T
D D 52 44 4
D R 49 46 5
R D 51 48 1
R R 48 52 0

The only way the Republicans can reliably win control of the Senate is if they have a good year this year, and again in 2026. But this requires them to substantially overperform in Maine, and break the current trends in Texas and Florida from the last decade which have seen them move from Republican strongholds to having much closer elections over the last 6 years.

That is highly unlikely given how unpopular Donald Trump is.

If Democrats win this year, the Republicans won’t be in a good position again to win until at least 2028.

The potential swing states of the 2020s are:

  • Montana
  • Indiana
  • Ohio
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • North Carolina
  • Wisconsin
  • Georgia
  • Maine
  • Iowa

Every other state is unlikely to flip a Senate seat.

If Republicans fail to flip the Senate seat in Montana, they will likely not be able to win control of the Senate this November.

If Republicans fail to flip Montana this year and then fail to flip Ossof’s seat in Georgia in 2026, they have no path to a majority in the Senate.

If Iowa comes into play, Republicans are screwed. If Iowa is in play in 2026, subtract one from the Republican column and add one to the tossup column.

If Democrats campaign well, we will win. We need to win Sinema’s seat in Arizona and lose nothing.

Deadliest conflicts in history

I have a spreadsheet of 100 wars and conflicts from history, stretching from 475 BC to the present. Wars before then tend to have poor data. All major wars are on the spreadsheet, which can be viewed on Google Drive.

A few interesting things about this sheet are how I approach the data. I include the length of the conflict, total casualties, and the world population when the conflict ended. The data is from Wikipedia, from the most recent scholarship for each conflict.

I then calculate a few statistics from this data:

  • Casualties per year
  • Percent of global population killed
  • Annual Casulaties as a percent of the global population

We now can find some interesting insights from this on the five worst conflicts in history by each of these metrics:

Casualties

  • World War II (about 73,000,000)
  • Great Leap Forward
  • An Lushan Rebellion
  • Mongol Conquests
  • Native American genocide (about 30,o00,000)

Casualties per year

  • World War II (about 12,200,0o0)
  • Great Leap Forward
  • Holodomor
  • World War I
  • Rwandan Genocide of 1994 (about 4,696,000)

Percent of global population killed

  • An Lushan Rebellion (16%)
  • Mongol Conquests
  • Warring States Era
  • Qing Dynasty Conquest of Ming Dynasty
  • World War II (3%)

Annual casualties as a percent of the global population

  • An Lushan Rebellion (2%)
  • World War II
  • Great Leap Forward
  • World War I
  • Holodomor

Even if we go with the lowest acceptable scholarly estimate for Holodomor fatalities, it still makes the top 5 on 2 of these rankings.

An interesting takeaway from this data is that the Holocaust doesn’t make the top 5, 11 million people killed or 900,000 people per year, placing it as the 12th worst calamity in history by total numbers and 17th worst in history by deaths per year. A horrible event without question, there’s no denying that.

World War II appears in all lists by this cut-off. It truly was the worst war in world history. Only the An Lushan Rebellion beats it when controlling for the global population.

If the Holodomor lasted for one more year, its death could have surpassed the Holocaust. Both genocides were horrible and need to be recognized in full to understand their causes and to understand that anyone can be the victim of genocide under certain circumstances. We need to study the political economic and social forces which led to these genocides so future genocides can be prevented. Erasing victims of genocide only increases the probability of genocide in the future by painting it as being across indelible racial lines that cannot be changed, and nothing could possibly be further from the truth. For example, the fact that many slave owners in the Southern US were Irish, does not erase the horrors of the Irish Potato Famine, which I consider a genocide because it was the consequence of deliberate British policy to prevent the import of food until the crisis got so bad that parliament repealed the corn laws.

Genocides do not appear out of thin air.

To understand the nature of genocide and properly bulletproof our institutions and our societies to be immune from this type of madness, it is essential not to underplay or undercount while also recognizing when events are repeating.

Understanding the Holodomor requires you to understand it was deliberate, quick, and effective. From that, you can then study how it progressed and how politics in the Soviet Union led to such a disaster. The basics of it is the Soviet Union used central planning to force people out of their professions and onto the farms while also stealing the food from the people and letting Ukrainians starve. This central planning resulted in one of the two fastest genocides in history, comparable only to the Great Leap Forward based on modern counts of how quickly people died and how pointless it was.

Behind the Holodomor, Holocaust, Rwandan Genocide of 1994, and Great Leap Forward there is not just a simple hatred directed toward a single group of people found from the leaders of such horrible events, but a general antihumanism which more than anything denies the central tenant of humanism of egalitarianism. This is rooted in Kant’s categorical imperative, which is fundamental to all following liberatory philosophy:

Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.

Act in such a way that you treat humanity, whether in your own person or in the person of any other, never merely as a means to an end, but always at the same time as an end.

Thus the third practical principle follows [from the first two] as the ultimate condition of their harmony with practical reason: the idea of the will of every rational being as a universally legislating will.

Act according to maxims of a universally legislating member of a merely possible kingdom of ends.

~ Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals, Immanuel Kant

This forms the basis of liberalism from which the rest of the school of thought is built.

Genocide breaks all four maxims of the Categorical Imperative. It is impossible to advocate for the eradication of innocent people while also arguing for universality. The first step to eradicating the rights of the individual is to group them into groups by either wealth, race, gender, or whatever distinguishing factor. Fascism examines history through the battle of nations and communism through class struggle. In this way, they obscure individual liberty in favor of a larger group based not on equal rights and universality but on conflict theory.

It is rare to find a regime that targets only one demographic.

If history is based solely on conflicts between groups, then increasing the rights of one group to that of the other will intensify the conflict and harm the rights of the opposing party. For this reason, as we observe in philosophy and history, this observation:

Universality cannot coexist with conflict theory.

Human rights abuses generally follow if the base unit of history is not the individual but a category above the individual. It is rare for organizations to be fully based on one philosophy or another because, at the individual level, conflicting interests create tensions in the politics we observe in our law. Using the founding of the United States, you had humanist idealists from New England building a constitution with literal slaveholders in the South. Right here, we have a conflict, but due to outside pressure from the global powers of the day, idealists and slavers worked together, as we read in the Federalist Papers. From this, we observe:

Much of politics is the struggle between humanists and conflict theorists.

As time goes on and we as people debate and fight for beliefs, there are times where old hatreds last for generations.

Slava Ukraine.

Free Palestine.

Free Israel.

Free Russia.

Overview of UN resolutions regarding Ukraine and Palestine

There have been three resolutions in the UN over the last year regarding the invasion of Gaza and six regarding Ukraine over the last two years.

The following countries have voted in favor of Likud at least once in the last three resolutions:

  • Argentina
  • Austria (x2)
  • Croatia
  • Czechia (x3)
  • Fiji
  • Guatemala (x2)
  • Hungary (x2)
  • Israel (x3)
  • Liberia (x2)
  • Marshall Islands
  • Micronesia (x2)
  • Nauru (x3)
  • Palau
  • Papua New Guinea (x3)
  • Paraguay (x2)
  • Tonga
  • United States (x3)

The vast majority of countries, including the vast majority of NATO members, consistently vote in favor of the peace treaties or abstain. Israel has very few supporters in their realm.

When it comes to Ukraine, we see a similar story. The following countries have voted in favor of Russia’s side at least once:

  • Algeria
  • Bahamas
  • Belarus (7)
  • Bolivia
  • Burundi
  • Central African Republic (2)
  • China (2)
  • Congo
  • Cuba (2)
  • Eritrea (6)
  • Ethiopia (2)
  • Gabon
  • Iran (2)
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Laos
  • Mali (4)
  • Nicaragua (5)
  • North Korea (7)
  • Russia (7)
  • Syria (7)
  • Tajikistan
  • Uzbekistan
  • Vietnam
  • Zimbabwe (2)

Most of these countries only voted against removing Russia from the Human Rights Council, but it still counts.

Belarus, North Korea, Russia, and Syria are the only countries that have voted in Putin’s favor every single time.

Most countries and most democracies have not voted in favor of Russia or Likud even once in the last two years.

In the latest resolution, only seven countries sided with Russia.

It is clear the majority of the countries have the position I hold:

1. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is barbaric and wrong. Russia must withdraw and respect Ukrainian sovereignty.

2. The Israeli operation in Gaza violates international law. It cannot eradicate Hamas through military means. Israel needs to withdraw, and Palestine needs to be an independent state.

This is the global consensus.

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_resolutions_concerning_Israel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleventh_emergency_special_session_of_the_United_Nations_General_Assembly

Fire Jake Sullivan

It is long past time to fire Jake Sullivan.

He should have lost his job after the fall of Kabul. He assured the American government and people that the Afghan government would be able to withstand the Saudi pressure, and he was completely wrong. I have been fired for far less. He should have lost his job for his massive misunderstanding of the situation and inability to find reliable information.

He utterly failed to collect and direct American surveillance and security to predict the October 6th attack. We now know that the Israeli security system knew an attack was coming, I am sure the United States knew as well. Jake Sullivan kills Jews to create profits for the Military industrial complex along with Likud. He should be fired.

He continuously, incorrectly, declares that if we pressure Russia more that there will be nuclear war. He believes all of their threats, regardless of evidence or reason. At least a broken clock is right twice a day. He doesn’t even have that going for him.

Jake Sullivan has made a world where tyrants can invade with impunity.

Where terrorists are training in Afghanistan today.

Where IDF kills children with no repercussions.

Where we believe in incredible threats, but evidence of mounting terrorist attacks is routinely ignored.

He claims Ukraine needs to wait another year to take back their country. https://www.businessinsider.com/jake-sullivan-ukraine-can-mount-counteroffensive-on-russia-in-2025-2024-5?op=1

https://www.businessinsider.com/jake-sullivan-ukraine-can-mount-counteroffensive-on-russia-in-2025-2024-5?op=1

Fire Jake Sullivan. He makes the world a more dangerous place.

 

Also fire Antony Blinken. He consistently makes the wrong decisions on Ukraine by withholding aid. He is a Zionist. His maneuvering around Afghanistan had made the world a more dangerous place.

 

For our highest offices regarding foreign relations, we need people who are actually experts, who have expertise in the regions of the world where there are significant problems.

 

There was a random attack against a consulate in Libya, and Hillary Clinton had to sit through months of testimony for something that was not her fault.

 

Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan have supported Netanyahu, been hesitant to support Ukraine, and threw Afghanistan to the terrorists, so where are the months of testimony for far more serious crimes?

 

The entire upper leadership of American foreign policy is leading us straight into World War III. Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken should have been fired two years ago.

 

They are clearly incompetent and need to be fired.

Red lines are political boogiemen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

This article clearly demonstrates that the red lines Russia has set have been of little to no value.

But what we have found is that when NATO has not made it clear something is off limits, Russia consistently violates it.

In response to us not letting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO in 2008, Georgia was invaded less than 6 months later.

In response to Euromaidan and no clear defense from NATO, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Biden promised that America would focus on how our domestic economy is falling apart in 2021. 6 months later, Russia further invaded Ukraine.

 

If you want to understand the impact of crossing a “red line” Russia makes, you have to look into game theory.

If Russia invades a sovereign country and the consequences are larger than the benefits to Russia, they will not engage in such behavior.

Biden’s speeches have put America’s willingness to defend non-NATO members into question, and the consequence is the invasion of Ukraine.

In reality, red line or not, you have to look through each of these declarations through a game theory lens.

Whenever you analyze Russian military strategy through game theory, it always ends with the same result. If Russia engages fully with NATO then the Russian military will be destroyed. This is the outcome of every NATO-Russia engagement if NATO puts in its full power. NATO has over 10x the number of people Ukraine has. Russia can’t even take over Ukraine. Russia wouldn’t stand a week.

Ukraine has already hit targets inside Russian territory. Russia has not fulfilled its “red line” pledge. It is so obvious that a nuclear attack would provoke a severe military response against Russia, and they so clearly do not have the military capabilities to stop a NATO invasion.

There has been a new front opened in Kharkiv by the Russians in light of this prohibition of Ukraine attacking Russian troops before they enter Ukraine.

David Cameron has even said Ukraine has the right to attack Russian troops before they kill and kidnap Ukrainians. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-calls-cameron-statement-uk-arms-ukraine-direct-escalation-2024-05-03/

So, according to accelerationists, this is why a nuclear warhead struck London yesterday.

Checkmate liberals.

Except… that didn’t happen.

I have family in London, Munich, and Helsinki, NATO/EU targets that would be hit if Russia’s words carried any weight.

I am deeply invested, just like the government of Estonia, in the path which is least likely to have Russia attack NATO directly.

That path is to support Ukraine all the way to victory.

Finland has a long-range air defense system. https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/press_release_archive/2023/new_long-range_air_defence_system_for_the_finnish_defence_forces.13506.news

Poland has a missile defense system. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

The eastern flank of NATO is very well defended, and we have crossed many red lines Russia has set. They know that if they attack NATO with a nuclear warhead, it will not reach its intended target. But it would guarantee the end of Russia as an independent state.

Red lines are political boogiemen. What really matters is the outcome from game theory. Russia does not have the population, military, or economy even to conquer Ukraine, let alone survive a war with NATO.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-ukrainian-commander-had-russian-troops-in-his-sights-but-couldn-t-attack-he-says-a-us-rule-is-to-blame/ar-BB1mQbnU?cvid=66e273c8045a4ae3985d4b233670b858&ei=35

We must remove the ban on Ukrainians using weapons against the Russian military while the Russians are still in Russian territory.

The same thing applies to Russian red lines, which work with Israeli red lines. “This Administration never supports anything we do until we do it,” and this is the Biden manifesto. There is no reason to believe a thing this administration says. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinion-the-israelis-prove-biden-wrong-on-rafah/ar-BB1mSdZh?cvid=e1179e51787147a69ac08ddcb022f67b&ei=46

Crossing this red line will, of course, not change America’s long-standing 44-year-long policy of supporting Zionism.

The evidence is clear that red lines are not worth anything in politics in all of these example I have laid out.

Game theory is all that matters.

Israel will not seek a long-standing solution to Palestine until they are forced to by the United States.

What matters in the Russo-Ukrainian war is that NATO must give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend its people and let them attack the Russian military before they are in Ukrainian territory. This saves lives. It will not lead to nuclear war.

A single nuclear blast against anywhere in NATO would guarantee the end of Russia as an independent state. Russia knows this. We also have a high probability of being able to destroy their missiles and planes before they even reach NATO territory.

We need to have a plan, and we likely do, on how to properly respond to Russia if they attack a NATO member state. Estonia might be small, but if we let them shoot a single bullet into Estonia, that will either be the end of NATO, and we will be destroyed one by one, or a NATO vs Russia war, which would be a resounding victory for NATO.

Again, they can’t even defeat Ukraine.

When you analyze the situation through game theory instead of “red line” pseudoscience, you discover the only way to avoid a Russian attack on the United States is to support Ukraine to the point where every Russian soldier is either imprisoned, dead, or in Russia.

Every other path in the game theory tree leads to a NATO-Russia war.

There is no path to victory for Russia.

Ukraine fact check

“Wait a minute, this war has been going on for 10 years, Russia has had every advantage, and after 10 years they only occupy 18 percent of Ukraine,” Hodges said. “They [have] lost half a million troops, the Black Sea Fleet is getting worse by the day, and the Air Force is unable to get air superiority.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-hang-on-in-2024-to-win-in-2025-putin-zelenskky-russia-counteroffensive/

This quote summarizes the situation precisely. The Russian “naval fleet” in Sevastopol is quickly being turned into the Russian submarine fleet. Despite four times the people, 10x the GDP, and almost twice the military spending, and almost 3 times the number of available trained military personnel, Russia is unable to take over Ukraine.

Despite having the support of China which does not depend on passing through Congress, so it is stable and consistent Russian advances in Ukraine have been small. They were able to take Avdiivka, but that took them over six months when Ukraine was running out of weapons due to delayed military aid from the United States, courtesy of the Republican Party.

If Ukraine and Russia were tied in military ability, one would expect Russia to have already taken over Ukraine, but they have not. Corruption is a major issue with Russia’s military, which squanders their ability to fight.

Simple math shows that for every Ukrainian soldier who is killed defending their democracy, 4 Russian barbarians need to be unalived.

Currently, 2.5 Russian vatniks have been unalived for every Ukrainian who has been killed.

If NATO weapons can increase the ratio to 4:1 and allow Ukraine to attack Russian troops before they reach Ukrainian territory, it will become impossible for Russia to win.

Allow Ukraine to bomb military targets in Russia. The Kremlin is a military target.

Send Ukraine every weapon they request as long as possible because that is what China will do so they can invade Taiwan if Russia wins.

But Russia cannot win.

Even with unstable NATO support and stable Chinese support, Russia still cannot make advances proportional to its advantage in terms of total military equipment and total soldiers.

Even though it has taken more than a week to deliver promised weapons to Ukraine, Russian advances are small. Once the latest aid package reaches Ukraine, which has taken far too long already, Russia will be able to be pushed back.

If Ukraine, with NATO support, can increase the death ratio to 4 Russians for every Ukrainian who dies defending their home, Russia will lose the war. They are already 62% of the way there despite unstable NATO support.

Defeat Russia in Ukraine, unalive Putin, and we will have peace and stability in Europe.

France unemployment rate

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate

France has not seen unemployment below 7% since 1981.

In this world, we have a choice: you can have all of the labor protections you have so you never lose a job, or you can have high wages and low unemployment.

The costs of hiring in France are extremely high because it is nearly impossible to fire people. This makes businesses cautious about hiring, so unemployment stays high.

That’s it.

Freedom of speech and the press

It is not a coincidence that Donald Trump is suing George Stephanopolous at the same time that there is a bill in Congress claiming criticizing policies done by Netanyahu and his government is on par with Holocaust denial and calling for genocide against Jews.

They are two sides of the same coin.

Israeli Democracy in Peril

At the core of democracy is the freedom of speech and the press. There has been a massive erosion of democratic norms in Israel under Netanyahu’s rule, as we see from Israel arresting more journalists than all but five other countries despite being the 93rd most populous nation. Democracy cannot exist when journalists are frequently arrested or killed for doing their job. In 2020, Israel scored 69 out of 100 points in the Press Freedom Index, slightly above Hungary. Today, Israel scores 53 points, below every NATO country except Turkey.

There has been severe democratic backsliding in Israel over the last few years. To not recognize these facts and call them out is doing a great disservice to Israelis who want to live in a democracy and to support a corrupt, plutocratic government that is destroying the country.

To maintain power, Netanyahu is using more extreme methods, which is easily seen in how Israel is the 6th most dangerous place to be a journalist on Earth out of about 194 countries.

The Zionist movement is now trying to erode freedom of speech in the United States by passing a law criminalizing political speech. This is profoundly anti-democratic. Welcome to Zionism, an inherently authoritarian religious extremist movement of Evangelical Christianity.

To silence critics of their savior, serial rapist Donald Trump, Evangelicals are now working towards attacking journalists like we are seeing with the persecution against George Stephanopolous.

Zionism is Inherently Evangelical

Evangelical Christians believe the end times are coming soon. They have believed they have been coming soon for centuries and will always believe the end times are coming soon. Because of this, they believe Israel is the place where Jesus will arrive in Israel, as prophesied by the Book of Revelations, and so Israel needs to not be under Muslim control. This is why the United States will not endorse the two-state solution as long as Joe Biden is President. Joe Biden may be a Catholic, but he is obviously influenced by their ideology. He has only changed his social positions since the Obama Presidency. He is a fundamentally conservative Catholic.

This is why Evangelical Christians did not oppose the Third Reich, and the Catholic church had a mixed response. Israel was never about saving Jewish lives. It was always about putting Jews in danger instead of Christians, while the most radical Zionists became leaders and ensured perpetual conflict with their neighbors. This fits into Evangelical mythology of Christians being the perpetual victims, now putting Jews in the boat to be the ones in danger. I believe this is a big part of why not all victims of the Third Reich were able to reclaim citizenship immediately after Hitler committed suicide in a bunker because he was a coward.

Evangelical Christianity led to only some Third Reich victims being able to reclaim citizenship, and they opposed Jewish immigration to the United States, so Israel was left as the only option for many of these now-stateless people. It wasn’t a free movement. The claim it was a choice is mythology. It was forced on many Jews deprived of German citizenship who could not attain American citizenship.

Zionism has been a Christian idea since at least the First Crusade.

Biden’s version of Christianity is why he criticizes descendants of Holocaust victims who criticize Zionism as being anti-semitic.

Evangelicalism is Inherently Authoritarian

So here we have the stage. Zionism is a fundamentally Christian ideology. Evangelicalism takes the most extreme Christian viewpoints and puts them on steroids. They support an adulterer (Exodus 20:14) and cheater, claiming he is going to bring in Christian Nationalism. He has embraced their zeal against abortion (Numbers 5:19-22) and the death penalty. (Exodus 20:13)

So, George Stephanopolous’s criticism of Donald Trump is not just to criticize him personally but to attack the entire Evangelical movement.

Likewise, advocating for the rights of the Palestinians is to prevent Israel from having Bethlehem, which they believe is necessary for Jesus to return from the dead.

These ideas are based on mythology and are obviously never going to happen. But the Evangelical movement, in general, is not democratic. There is no process for the average members of many churches to elect their leaders. Their leaders are often appointed by those who came before, such as in the Mormon and Seventh-Day Adventist denominations. There is no direct way for members of such organizations to impact their leadership except to leave.

Their internal organization system, which stifles all disagreement, and their inherently authoritarian polity lead them to support sanctions against journalists. They do not care how Israel governs itself. It is irrelevant to their goal of the second coming of Jesus.

Criticism of Israeli politics and journalists investigating Donald Trump are both attacks on the Evangelical movement. This is why they are fighting for the criminalization of such acts.

Democrats must oppose both the conflation of hate speech with political speech and the suing of journalists. Hate speech is not free speech. Criticizing policy is not hate speech but the most protected speech under our laws.

Evangelicalism is a threat to American democracy and global security.

References:

Israel-Gaza War

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/18/israeli-arrests-of-palestinian-journalists-soared-in-2023-cpj

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68582953

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Zionism