Allen Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House is a monumental study that correctly predicts the electoral college in every election since 1984 except 2000. He predicts Biden will win the election this year, with only 2-4 false keys. How can we use this research to dictate policy, both internal party politics and national policy, …
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Trends in economic data
I gathered some data on US states. This is not longitudinal yet, but I still think it has some interesting trends. To start, states which vote more democratically have the following trends: more bachelor’s degrees higher incomes both before and after taxes live longer more people have health insurance. Fewer people smoke tobacco. The one …
How to crash your society, or not
Here are policies that are most likely to destroy your country: Nationalized agriculture will quickly cure overpopulation. Concentrate your economy in the hands of a handful of mega-corporations. The rich and powerful get significant benefits paid for by the working class. Increase the cost of housing. If a condo is less than 20 times the …
How to reduce the price of oil
You can reduce the price of a good or service in two ways: Reduce demand Increase supply Now, from the perspective of the United States, while we have one of the largest oil reserves, most of those reserves are shale. Shale oil is expensive to refine and particularly dirty compared to other sources of oil. …
Biden report card
This is a summary of everything I have written over the last 3 and a half years Domestic Social: A He supports the progress that was made under the Obama administration, abortion rights, gay marriage, trans rights, etc. Biden is a fantastic president on domestic social policy. He has not eroded American civil liberties; his …
How Biden can still win
Stop sending arms to Israel. Send arms to Ukraine with no restrictions beyond the Geneva conventions so they win the war this summer. The truth is that Joe Biden is one of only two American presidents who lost a war; the other is Gerald Ford, who lost Vietnam. Biden’s approval rating plummeted after we abandoned …
Ukraine is not Israel
It’s 1938 Czechoslovakia. Here’s why. UN status Russia and Ukraine are both UN member states. Israel is a UN member state, but Palestine is not. Civilian deaths Over 30,000 civilians have been killed in the ongoing war in Gaza, almost all by Israel. Around 10,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine, basically only by Russia. …
A plan for rail to Ashland, Oregon
This is an interesting conversation I had with a friend over text. Published here with permission because we think it will be of interest to people who live in or travel to Southwest Oregon. “Ashland, Oregon to Montague, California not being operated due to pricing actions. There is a general concern among some shippers that …
Southern Oregon AMTRAK
Stages to bring AMTRAK to Ashland, Oregon Step 1: Oregon purchases the tracks owned by the Central Oregon and Pacific Railroad. Step 2: Oregon upgrades the line for 60 MPH. This increases freight capacity and makes passenger rail viable. Step 3: Start running service. Potential riders: Josephine, Jackson, and Douglas counties have 400,000 people total, …
Biden does not understand Europe at all
Could we just have a coherent presidential candidate, I mean, an Atlanticist pro-democracy liberal who supports trade, visa-free travel, and mutual protection pacts between democracies should be the bare minimum, but at this point, I would kill for a President who can just form a coherent sentence. NEITHER candidate meets that very low bar. Biden …