I first wrote a game theory tree for Ukraine in January 2022, when I drew out a plan for why Russia would back down if the West responded with a military threat and there wouldn’t be a war. The foreign policy team (Blinken & Sullivan) at the White House clearly does not understand game theory; …
Category Archives: Ukraine
Lublin and the formation of a distinct Ukrainian identity
For over two years, Russia has been invading Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine is historically Russian territory. This makes as much sense as claiming Northern Italy is historically German. While this is technically correct, there have been 1000 years between then and now which have sent these two regions on different paths. Recorded history starts around …
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The reality of Chinese invasions post-Ukraine war
The U.S. will very likely fight a 3-front war against Russia, China and Iran, Palantir’s Alex Karp says https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-will-very-likely-fight-a-3-front-war-against-russia-china-and-iran-palantir-s-alex-karp-says/ar-AA1oYglr Perhaps… but China is watching what is happening to Russia’s economy under sanctions, and China is far more trade-dependent than Russia. An invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the Communist Party. The invasion of …
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A peace treaty for Russia and Ukraine
Russia gives up all territorial claims on Ukraine. Ukraine becomes a member state of NATO. Konigsberg is given to Lithuania. Russia’s nuclear weapons will be confiscated. Putin will go to the Hague for trial if he is still alive. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are Georgian territories.
Peace is a policy choice
Today saw the launching of the largest war in Europe since 1945. We must keep track of why there was so much peace in Europe over the last 77 years. It wasn’t because the leaders of Europe were all angels, some of them (particularly Stalin) were truly terrible people. It was because there was a …