My theory is the partisan control of the governorship and Senate seat is a good predictor for how people will vote in a Presidential election. The higher the prediction, the more likely the state will vote for a Democrat. All presidential elections since 1830 are included. A state gets one point if the Governor or …
Author Archives: stidmatt
Israel is not like Hamas
When people describe the interests in the Israeli-Palestinian War as Israel vs. Hamas as what Israel wants vs. what Hamas wants, they are equivocating Israel with Hamas, and the two are very different. Israel is a country with multiple interest groups, and Hamas is a totalitarian terrorist organization. They are not the same. If there …
How 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats
We must get past this Tuesday, but looking forward to the future is important. Seeing the polls now and historic election trends, I think there is a genuine possibility that 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats. This is the base map that I think will be applicable in 2028. Democrats only need to win …
Continue reading “How 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats”
4 days to go
This is my prediction map for the election. I think Harris has a 7/8 chance of winning. Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are pure tossups. Arizona will not make a difference. Harris will win the presidency if she wins one of those three swing states. Giving Trump only a 1/8 chance of being elected on …
Ukraine Victory Plan Leak
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1044377-zelenskyy-indignant-at-leaking-of-secret-clause-of-victory-plan-with-request-for-tomahawk-missiles Yesterday, we saw the most significant intelligence leak of confidential military information in the United States’ history. It is guaranteed that whoever leaked the details of the Victory Plan shared them with Moscow, putting the whole world in danger. The plan was shared with NATO heads of state and Donald Trump. We know the …
New World Order?
Watch this video first. This is a response. I agree with his analysis. Shirvan is correct that these four states have many conflicts. This has a lot to do with my previous post, where I discussed world superpowers. After looking at GDP, GDP per capita, military expenditure, total area, and population, I found that the …
Kamala’s keys
When Kamala Harris becomes President in January she has 4 years to have a different approach to power than Biden has sought. “Unity” is not a Key to the White House. Presidents can and have been elected without bipartisan support. Kamala’s keys Harris must pass a major piece of legislation directly affecting Americans. The economy …
Thoughts
https://bsky.app/profile/mcopelov.bsky.social/post/3l7a5uk4vay2n Dr. Copelovitch is correct; Afghanistan led to Biden’s dropping approval ratings. The lesson is not that we can never end a war, but that if we are placed in a situation like Afghanistan again, there needs to be a lot more focus on not just fighting the terrorists with guns but also cutting the …
Ways to nationalize railroads
We could make it so every abandoned railroad automatically becomes AMTRAK property. Every failed railroad becomes AMTRAK property as well. As AMTRAK reinvests in these and builds a profitable income base eventually AMTRAK becomes the national operator. We do what I will call the America Plan, where failed railroads become part of AMTRAK and mergers …
Leader assassination
Assassinating bin Laden was the right thing to do. He was a dangerous man. Assassinating bin Laden did not cause al Qaeda to collapse. Assassinating bin Laden did not lead to America winning the War in Afghanistan. It was still the right thing to do. Assassination of terrorist leaders is only the first step towards …