Hungary and the Schengen Area

Hungary passes constitutional amendment to ban LGBTQ+ public events.
The ECJ is going to have a thing or two to say about this. It is a real test of how much authority they have. But most importantly, it risks causing a brain drain, which the Schengen Area will enable, and Hungary doesn’t tax its citizens on global income. The European Union has the right and the power to restrict equalization funds to Hungary, and they will likely do that. Brain drain leading to low tax revenues, a rapidly aging population, a loss of revenue from the European Union = a very cheap Forint.
This is how the Schengen Area passively enforces best practices. If a country adopts best practices, with or without legal force, it will attract migrants. If it adopts policies that harm its people, its citizens have the right to move away.
No country in the Schengen Area taxes its citizens on global income.
Don’t get me wrong, banning LGBTQ+ events is a bad policy. It’s hateful and pointless. However, as foreigners refuse to do business with Hungary and their intellectuals move away, Orban’s policies will cause a recession.
So my advice to the European Union is to stop spending equalization funds in Hungary in response to domestic laws that violate EU law. Then let the people vote with their feet, which they have a right to do.
Let their economy crash, let the Forint become worthless, and then Orban can be replaced. Hungary can bring its law back in line with EU law, which will then enable the European Union to open up equalization funds again. Let the market work here, and that is the best we can do.
If people want to have Hungary leave the European Union, this will almost certainly mean they will lose their right to live and work in the rest of the European Union. This will empower Orban by trapping his citizens in Hungary. This will reduce the economic damage done to his country by his absurd policies.
But here’s the thing, even if Hungary did leave the European Union, we already know what will happen to their economy because we have seen the consequences of Brexit, which are completely negative. So this puts Orban and every other head of government in the European Union into the same situation, where they have the following choices:
  • Adopt best practices so your citizens stay and you attract young talent to boost your economy.
  • Do not adopt best practices and do the opposite. Your best and brightest will leave, your budget will be harmed, you will not attract high-skilled foreigners, and you will become a pariah state.
  • Leave the European Union. This will create tariffs and many other trade barriers with the largest economy in the world. You become less attractive for foreign skilled workers, who would rather go somewhere in the bloc. Importing and exporting become more complex, as we saw with Brexit.

Through the power of trade alone, the European Union ensures best practices.

It sounds good to liberal minded people like me that we should send aid down to states which are worse off, and the federal government should help states when they have budget problems. While I think there are very good reasons that everyone should have access to health care and education regardless of what state they live in, along with things like natural disaster insurance which we all pay into, there also is a part of me which wants to ensure every state in the United States and every member state in the European Union adopts best practices.

I am concerned that if a state has a budget deficit due to its own dumb decisions, you should let it see the consequences. Otherwise, you run the risk that states will engage in bad practices, draining money from states that observe best practices. This can create a cycle of dependency with no way out. Health care is necessary for life, and education is necessary for a modern economy; those must be available to everyone. But if your state runs out of money to keep roads paved, has to lay off public sector workers because of bad policies, then you should let them slide while preventing as much damage to children in school. Once they improve their policies, they will be more vibrant and contribute more to the national budget. I also don’t think low-income citizens should need to die from lack of health care because their state government is made up of idiots, though. I draw a line there. But if your roads are full of potholes because your governor is an idiot? So be it.

It has become clear to me that the American system of siphoning money from productive states to corrupt states is a way to enforce worst practices and can be counterproductive, outside of health care and education.

So I believe the best action is not to expel Hungary from the EU. Instead, they should end subsidies to Orban’s government. I have no problem with that. Let the market speak.

This is how you deal with leaders like Orban in the fairest way possible while minimizing damage to his dissidents.

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