Geography as destiny

Geographical determinism is a theory which gets thrown around sometimes in amateur political science circles, but ultimately it doesn’t make a lot of sense, neither does it have significant predictive power.

cc ge pv rl rq va GDP per capita Homicide Rate Population Latitude Landlocked CPI score 2021 Overall Score
Homicide Rate -0.208828 -0.222991 -0.074121 -0.231639 -0.204292 -0.052526 -0.201697 1.000000 -0.045079 -0.237331 -0.069615 -0.231583 -0.092042
Population -0.062217 0.045046 -0.148219 -0.022726 -0.042365 -0.105903 -0.100371 -0.045079 1.000000 0.068069 -0.128136 -0.027728 -0.025829
Landlocked -0.177258 -0.142432 -0.185774 -0.151104 -0.110695 -0.179183 -0.039809 -0.069615 -0.128136 0.074242 1.000000 -0.191377 -0.186025
Latitude 0.239375 0.311888 0.055338 0.282971 0.306669 0.106360 0.381613 -0.237331 0.068069 1.000000 0.074242 0.280653 0.149164
political stability 0.756503 0.742135 1.000000 0.785730 0.696706 0.735506 0.479743 -0.074121 -0.148219 0.055338 -0.185774 0.734810 0.696773
voice and accountability 0.801513 0.731348 0.735506 0.817067 0.770079 1.000000 0.480132 -0.052526 -0.105903 0.106360 -0.179183 0.802581 0.969992
Overall Score 0.774462 0.757297 0.696773 0.817232 0.806616 0.969992 0.586707 -0.092042 -0.025829 0.149164 -0.186025 0.773204 1.000000
corruption 1.000000 0.905789 0.756503 0.941908 0.890307 0.801513 0.656148 -0.208828 -0.062217 0.239375 -0.177258 0.987219 0.774462
rule of law 0.941908 0.931614 0.785730 1.000000 0.927799 0.817067 0.656527 -0.231639 -0.022726 0.282971 -0.151104 0.947471 0.817232
regulatory quality 0.890307 0.936216 0.696706 0.927799 1.000000 0.770079 0.679930 -0.204292 -0.042365 0.306669 -0.110695 0.899863 0.806616
government effectiveness 0.905789 1.000000 0.742135 0.931614 0.936216 0.731348 0.688253 -0.222991 0.045046 0.311888 -0.142432 0.915234 0.757297
CPI score 2021 0.987219 0.915234 0.734810 0.947471 0.899863 0.802581 0.788648 -0.231583 -0.027728 0.280653 -0.191377 1.000000 0.773204
GDP per capita 0.656148 0.688253 0.479743 0.656527 0.679930 0.480132 1.000000 -0.201697 -0.100371 0.381613 -0.039809 0.788648 0.586707

No one geographic feature does a good job at describing any one political factor. However, political factors do a good job at describing economic factors.

When testing geographic determinism, its important to include political factors which overpower the relatively small impact geography makes in quality of government.

Leave a comment

Discover more from Stidmatt

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading