I just wrote How Democrats and Republicans Win, read that first.
So we have 7 keys to win control of the House of Representatives, along with my projection:
- Strong short-term economy: False
- Strong long-term economy: False
- Major policy change: False
- No foreign or military failure: False, alienating NATO and tariff policy
- Major foreign or military success: False, Trump is not going to be responsible for what happens in Ukraine
- Charismatic president: False, Trump is highly unpopular
- Campaigning in more districts than the opposition: Irrelevant
As long as Democrats campaign everywhere in the Midterms, 2026 is going to be a blood bath for Republicans.