Why Democrats will win in 2026

I just wrote How Democrats and Republicans Win, read that first.

So we have 7 keys to win control of the House of Representatives, along with my projection:

  • Strong short-term economy: False
  • Strong long-term economy: False
  • Major policy change: False
  • No foreign or military failure: False, alienating NATO and tariff policy
  • Major foreign or military success: False, Trump is not going to be responsible for what happens in Ukraine
  • Charismatic president: False, Trump is highly unpopular
  • Campaigning in more districts than the opposition: Irrelevant

As long as Democrats campaign everywhere in the Midterms, 2026 is going to be a blood bath for Republicans.

 

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