And now we have shown that once and for all that invasion is a legitimate path for territorial gain. Taiwan should prepare to be invaded, the arms race in China is now on.
Yes, it looks like Europe has failed to properly respond to Trump’s call for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine withdrew from the Kursk Oblast and it looks like Russia is going to de facto annex 20% of Ukraine in a ceasefire.
This is the wrong move. Russia has been weakened significantly through their isolation and if Ukraine had the support they needed to be able to strike Russian military assets in Russia, Ukraine will win. Russia’s economy is on the brink of collapse, and when it does collapse it will be unable to continue to rape women, murder children, and terrorize Ukrainians in every imaginable way. This cannot be met through meekness, it will only empower authoritarians around the world.
Russia was just on the brink of losing the war if Ukraine had the tools necessary to do it. Russia lost its war in Syria after 11 years and the rebels having limited foreign support. The fact that Russia could no longer support Assad with weapons clearly demonstrated that their ability to arm themselves is failing.
Ukraine has instead withdrawn from Kursk Oblast, and are seriously considering accepting Trump’s ceasefire proposal. Just like in 2014.
This decision tree I made last year clearly shows the consequences of the peace of each proposal to end the war. This is the path we took in 2014. It did not lead to peace.
Ukraine is not going to get NATO membership as long as Trump is president, and Russia is going to regroup and invade again after the sanctions have been lifted.
They will either do a full military invasion again or use election fraud like they have in Georgia to take over the Ukrainian government if we don’t support Ukraine to victory.
Every time Russia has started a war since the fall of the Soviet Union they have gained something. They gained Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008. They gained Crimea, Luhansk, and Donbas in 2014. If this ceasefire goes through this will be the largest acquisition of territory via military conquest since World War II.
Donald Trump is acting just like Chamberlain, just like Obama did in 2014. It does not bring peace, it only brings more war. It does not bring justice, only more tyranny.
If this goes through, the European Union and NATO will appear weak. Faith in our institutions will falter, and this will empower more politicians like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It will empower the continued fighting in Israel by keeping radicals in power at the expense of not just everyone in the region but Jews and Muslims around the world.
This is not a solution to the problem of Russian authoritarianism. This does not solve anything, it just sets a dangerous precedent.
More importantly, with lackluster support from NATO, Ukraine has built its own military industrial complex which the United States has no control over. They are now successfully blowing up Russian military infrastructure inside of Russia which significantly weakens Russia’s ability to conquer Ukraine.
I think this will happen in a very similar manner to the Syrian civil war, slow then fast. Ukraine is positioned in a much better position post-war than Syria. Ukraine has a modern democratic constitution. They will not fall into a civil war after the war is won. Ukraine is right now destroying the infrastructure in Russia which supports Russians in their genocide in Ukraine. Once they reach the tipping point where Russia cannot support their troops with fresh ammo and food they will be able to push Russians out of Ukraine.
Ukraine surrendering in Kursk is the wrong move. They have the upper hand right now. Russia’s economy is weak and they are incapable of defending their airspace. Ukraine just needs more weapons and to be given sufficient support by NATO until they reclaim every square centimeter of their territory and then completely close the border with Russia.
Russia is on its back foot and looking for a way out. They are hoping Trump will give them that. European officials need to recognize Trump is acting under orders from Moscow, he does not have America’s best interest at heart, and is destroying our economy.
I do not wish for war in Ukraine and Russia, and as I demonstrate in my decision tree, the only realistic path to peace is for Ukraine to regain their territory and join NATO. This ceasefire does not do that.