| Year | 2020 | 2024 | Difference |
| Total | 158429631 | 155238302 | |
| White % | 67% | 71% | |
| White | 106,147,852.77 | 110,219,194.42 | |
| Black % | 13% | 11% | |
| Black | 20,595,852.03 | 17,076,213.22 | |
| Hispanic % | 13% | 11% | |
| Hispanic | 20,595,852.03 | 17,076,213.22 | |
| White D % | 41% | 42% | |
| White R % | 58% | 57% | |
| Black D % | 0.87 | 0.86 | |
| Black R % | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
| Hispanic D % | 0.65 | 0.51 | |
| Hispanic R % | 0.33 | 0.46 | |
| White D | 43,520,619.64 | 46,292,061.66 | 2,771,442.02 |
| White R | 61,565,754.61 | 62,824,940.82 | 1,259,186.21 |
| Black D | 17,918,391.27 | 14,685,543.37 | -3,232,847.90 |
| Black R | 2,471,502.24 | 2,219,907.72 | -251,594.53 |
| Hispanic D | 13,387,303.82 | 8,708,868.74 | -4,678,435.08 |
| Hispanic R | 6,796,631.17 | 7,855,058.08 | 1,058,426.91 |
This data is calculated from the 2024 US presidential election and 2020 US presidential election pages on Wikipedia.
This is very interesting because there are so many narratives floating around trying to explain how Trump was able to win in 2024 despite his disastrous performance in 2020.
While Trump did improve his performance among Hispanic Republicans, overall there was a reduction in votes from both African Americans and Hispanic Americans, giving Trump the win.
Trump didn’t build a rainbow coalition. Democrats just failed to convince people of color to vote for their candidate. If you add in the 7 million missing votes from African American and Hispanic voters and assume these missing voters voted like they did in 2020, Harris would have won.
Is this simply because Harris is a woman? Well, based on the 2016 exit poll it sure doesn’t seem so, so I will not give the idea that Harris lost simply because she was a woman any more consideration.
Could it simply because Harris is a person of color? Based on 2012 voter demographics it sure doesn’t look like it. It is a silly argument on the surface. I will give it no more consideration.
The real question we need to ask is why did millions of African Americans and Hispanic Americans who voted in 2020 stay home in 2024? Let’s dive down to state level data.
Pennsylvania
Starting in Pennsylvania, America’s Keystone State, we see that Harris did win both Black and Latino voters in the state. Turnout in Pennsylvania barely changed, going from 76.5% turnout to 76.6% turnout. But we observe a sudden drop in support from Black men from 89% voting for Biden to 72% voting for Harris. Likewise, we see White Men increased support for Harris versus Biden, going form 37% for Harris to 39% for Harris. But turnout increased overall with white men, giving Trump a very narrow margin.
In short, turnout dropped among African Americans while increasing among White Americans. Harris did slightly better among White Americans than Biden did, but not enough to overcome the drop in turnout from African American men.
If she had performed as well as Biden did among African American men, she would have won Pennsylvania.
2024 results
2020 results
Michigan
Trump did well among voters under 30 in Michigan, whereas Biden won the demographic handily in 2020.
The Latino vote flipped for Trump, from 55% voted for Biden in 2020 to 58% for Trump in 2024. This led to more turnout overall in Michigan.
The White vote barely changed going from 55% for Trump in 2020 to 54% in favor of Trump in 2024, dropping from 81% of the vote to 78% of the vote. So white people in Michigan do not explain the difference.
Trump did slightly better among African Americans, moving from 7% of the vote to 11% of the vote in 2024.
In short, Latino turnout in Michigan increased, swinging the demographic and the state for Trump in 2024.
But here’s the interesting thing about this… it’s not just against Harris, but Latinos also voted against Elissa Slotkin in the Senate election, though not nearly at the same level.
Could it simply be the idea of being machismo driving Hispanic men away from female candidates? Most Hispanic Americans do not support this concept regardless of gender. So I do not believe it is machismo. Now these are nationwide polls, I do not know if there is a difference in Michigan specifically.
Something about Kamala Harris specifically did not appeal to Latino men in Michigan, and it was an issue that was localized, and limited to Latino men.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin tells a story similar to Pennsylvania, but slightly different.
White people saw a slight increase in support for Trump, from 52% in 2020 to 53% in 2024.
African Americans saw a large increase in support for Trump, from 8% in 2020 to 23% in 2024.
Hispanic Americans did not change, but increased their turnout which is better for Harris overall.
The large swing in African American votes for Trump and a small swing among white voters toward Trump swung Wisconsin to Trump in 2024.
This one is the closest in both elections and is more complicated. Here’s a table of results:
| Year | 2020 | 2024 | Difference |
| Total | 3298041 | 3422918 | |
| White % | 86% | 85% | |
| White | 2,836,315.26 | 2,909,480.30 | |
| Black % | 6% | 5% | |
| Black | 197,882.46 | 171,145.90 | |
| Hispanic % | 4% | 6% | |
| Hispanic | 131,921.64 | 205,375.08 | |
| White D % | 41% | 42% | |
| White R % | 52% | 53% | |
| Black D % | 92% | 77% | |
| Black R % | 8% | 23% | |
| Hispanic D % | 60% | 60% | |
| Hispanic R % | 37% | 38% | |
| White D | 1,162,889.26 | 1,221,981.73 | 59,092.47 |
| White R | 1,474,883.94 | 1,542,024.56 | 67,140.62 |
| Black D | 182,051.86 | 131,782.34 | (50,269.52) |
| Black R | 15,830 | 39,363 | 23,532 |
| Hispanic D | 79,152 | 123,225 | 44,072 |
| Hispanic R | 48,811 | 78,042 | 29,231 |
The margin in 2020 was around 20,000 votes, and the margin in 2024 was around 29,000 votes.
Let’s run through these three major racial groups and explain the difference, in order of size.
White people increased turnout with an 8,000 vote swing to Republicans. Bringing the margin to D+12,000.
African Americans saw a reduction in turnout, 27,000 fewer votes cast overall with a 73,000 vote swing to the Republicans bringing the margin to R+61,000.
Hispanic Americans saw an increase in turnout with a 15,000 vote swing for the Republicans.
These numbers are approximate of course, but they express a point.
Wisconsin primarily flipped because of the drop in support from African American men.
Could this be due to a swing of support for Trump among African Americans or a consequence of Wisconsin closing polling places? ABC 7 Chicago
So it could be that African American men who work did not have time to make it to the polling place while African American women did? Did they not know that Wisconsin has no-excuse absentee voting?
Perhaps, but this doesn’t explain why the total number of votes went up in 2024 versus 2020. I am not convinced closing of polling places is enough to swing this election. It doesn’t explain the doubling of support for Trump among African American men.
More research is required. Why did 13% of African Americans, primarily men, switch to Trump in 2024?
Nevada
Nevada voted Republican for the first time since 2004, continuing a streak of voting for the winner of the popular vote since that year.
Like in Michigan, the Latino vote flipped to a small majority for Trump, giving him the win.
Results
Kamala Harris did better among white Americans than other demographics overall, and in none of the three key swing states was her defeat among that demographic enough to flip the state.
In these four swing states, Harris generally performed better among white people but worse among people of color, though the specific demographic she lost varied by state. Across the board, men of color voted for her at a lower level than we observed in 2020. Whether it was Hispanic or African American men who flipped from Biden to Trump depended on the state.
Neither is it exactly described by gender. Jackie Rosen won in Nevada as well as Elissa Slotkin in Michigan on the same day.
Finding out the real reason why African American and Hispanic men saw a significant decrease in votes for Harris, but not as much for the Senate, while women of color voted for Harris is an important issue. Democrats need to do research to figure out what exactly caused these voters, in particular, to not vote for Harris, and not settle for simple answers. We need actual surveys to figure out what caused so many millions of Democratic voters to stay home in 2024.