With Donald Trump as President effectively allying himself as president, it gives the world a very different global political structure for the next 4 years.
The first impact of this is US alliances, which expand across 5 continents and the US is the cornerstone of the global democratic world. As I described on Wednesday, there are a few potential candidates who would almost certainly be successful with allying themselves with the United States if they desired to form an alliance, but Israel already receives more military aid than any other country except Ukraine, and Mauritius is not a target for any invasion.
Without the United States as the cornerstone of the global bloc of democracies, there are a few obvious candidates to replace us. I’m comparing across population, GDP, GDP per capita, military expenditure, and surface area. I then calculate the percentile of each of these 5 metrics and take the simple average of them together.
The European Union acting as a bloc is obviously the only close comparison to the United States in the world. China is still significantly worse off in terms of GDP per capita, and the EU scores well across corruption, democracy, economics, and size. Acting as a bloc they can mostly replace the United States. The European Union however is not a country and this limits its ability to work as cohesively as a state does.
The next most powerful country is Canada. It scores over the 90th percentile across every metric I am controlling for except population, where it is in the 79th percentile. Canada is a powerful friend.
China ranks right behind Canada. However, they are an authoritarian regime with a GDP per capita of around 62%.
Australia is next, with an even larger disadvantage to Canada due to its even smaller population.
Next up is Brazil, which is above the 90th percentile in everything except GDP per capita. As Brazil keeps increasing their mean years of schooling and their economy grows their position in the world will only increase.
Russia ranks after Brazil, suffering from a low GDP per capita and is undemocratic.
Japan scores over the 90th percentile on GDP, population, and military expenditure. Their GDP per capita is under the 90th percentile however at the 88th percentile and their area is at 67th percentile.
France and Germany are tied as the highest-rated EU member states, both are under the 90th percentile for area and France is at the 89th percentile for population. Germany is the only country aside from the United States to score above the 90th percentile for population, GDP, GDP per capita, and military expenditure.
We now have Canada, France, and Germany representing NATO, Brazil representing the Rio Pact, and major allies Australia and Japan in the Pacific.
The reality is that most powerful countries in the world are democracies. Here are some stats of the democratic world today, based on countries with a democracy score of at least 5:
- 60% of the world’s population are in democracies.
- 93% of the world’s GDP is in countries with a democracy score over 5.
- 86% of the world’s military expenditure is in democracies.
- Democracies have a GDP per capita of around $15,700 versus around $5,600 in authoritarian regimes.
Let’s narrow the criteria to countries with a democracy score of at least 7. The most democratic countries in the world.
- 40% of the world’s population
- 83% of the world’s GDP
- 80% of the world’s military expenditure
- GDP per capita of $21,000
No matter how you look at it, if we unite all democracies, we are unbeatable.
If the United States abandons our role, here are how these numbers compare:
| Value | Democracy score < 5 | Democracy score > 5 | Democracy score > 7 | Democracy score > 5, without the USA | Democracy score > 7, without the USA | |
| Population | 40% | 60% | 40% | 50% | 29% | |
| GDP | 7% | 93% | 83% | 50% | 40% | |
| Military expenditure | 14% | 86% | 80% | 35% | 28% |
The United States is the most important country in the world, there is no reasonable doubt about it. This is why the US president is in the most important position in the world.
That being said, it is also clear that in our present reality of absent leadership from the United States that the remaining democracies in the world have enough population, GDP, and military expenditure to still be a significant force for good.
The Free World can stand on its own without the United States, but we are all better off when the United States is at the table.
Russia’s allies
Russia acts and talks like they have many allies around the world, and China has increased its sales of aid to Russia. Military support has also come from Belarus, Iran, and North Korea. But ultimately Russia’s list of allies is a short list. The only countries who voted with Russia in the United Nations were Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria. The oft-portrayed villains of China and Iran abstained from the vote. Putin is so weak he can’t even get double-digit countries to back him up in a low-stakes vote!
This is while Ukraine is backed by almost every democracy in the world and has allies on every continent who have provided aid.
Ukraine is by far the favored country to win the war. If the United States fails in our commitment, Ukraine could still win given the development of a domestic military industrial complex and a surge of military aid from other countries. The United States should still provide Ukraine with aid because its the right thing to do and save lives, but Trump cannot guarantee a victory to Russia, he can only slow down their inevitable defeat.
Russia is an extremely isolated state. They will lose the war. Ukraine will win.
Proposal
In order to hasten Ukraine’s total victory and protect every democracy in the world, my proposal is this:
- The European Union and Rio Pact should reach out to each other to increase military cooperation.
- The European Union extends its mutual protection pacts to America’s allies in the West Pacific.
- The European Union further increases its aid to Ukraine.
- Ukraine seeks military aid from Japan, Australia, and the Rio Pact member states.
- Georgia seeks out unilateral defense pacts until their inevitable accession to NATO.
With these changes, Ukraine will have the equipment advantage that will allow them to defeat Russia and take back 100% of their territory.
Once we remove Trump from office the United States will resume our role as the leader of the free world in cooperation with our friends.