The United States is the most defended country in the world, and not just because our military is the largest, but through our network of alliances we are protected by the militaries of all of our allies combined. We have mutual protection pacts with countries on every continent except Africa, and our alliances have overall only grown since the end of World War II.
This begs the question if we wanted to expand our alliances further, which countries are the top candidates?
I’m using GDP per capita, homicide rate, gay rights status, The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, Press Freedom Index from Reporters Without Borders, and Corruption Perceptions Index from Transparency International to determine which countries are the best candidates for future mutual protection pacts with the United States.
When we filter out all of the countries in the world that have data, the only countries that exceed the worst score in the Schengen Area for these six factors are Israel and Mauritius.
Israel already received a gigantic amount of support from the United States, so the only real advantage to a formal mutual protection pact is that the President could then send them aid without going through Congress every time. The caveat is mutual protection pacts naturally come with restrictions on how the weapons can be used, so the conduct in Gaza of blowing up schools and hospitals would certainly get aid to Israel stopped by the courts in accordance with any mutual protection pact we might sign with them. It would certainly require a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. So I do not expect anything to change regarding their status.
Mauritius is isolated in the Indian Ocean with very little land and population. They are very unlikely to be invaded and already have excellent relations with the United States. It would likely go through Congress quickly if they choose to pursue a mutual protection pact with us.
That’s it, every other country that meets or exceeds these six factors compared to the Schengen Area already is a member of the Schengen Area, European Union, or has a mutual protection pact with us.
If we decide that null values for these six parameters are also qualifying, because those countries tend to be very small, we find that Andorra and Nauru become potential Schengen members. Andorra is of course an enclave of the Schengen Area and lacks flights outside of the region, so there is no way to get to Andorra without going through the Schengen Area. Nauru is like Mauritius but even smaller and even less significant on the global stage. They maintain close relations with Australia and are unlikely to ever be invaded.
The Schengen Area is however a very elite group of countries. If we expand our net of potential allies to instead be focused on NATO three more countries become likely candidates. Those three countries are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Fiji.
Fiji is similar to Mauritius but even less likely. Fiji has suffered 3 coups since independence. There have been multiple times in the last 30 years where their relations with Australia and New Zealand have become incredibly strained and Fijian ambassadors have been expelled from the country. This is certainly why Fiji does not have a mutual protection pact with any country today. Relations are better now and if Fiji can continue to have a democratic government, they will likely join a mutual protection pact. However, they have the same advantage as Mauritius of being fairly small and very isolated, so an invasion is unlikely.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were the sites of NATO interventions during the genocides of the 1990s. NATO is very unpopular in these countries as a result, but they are both candidates to join the European Union, and once they finish the accession they will be covered by the European Union mutual protection pact Article 42.7.
Finally, there is a litany of countries that do better than the worst performing metrics for the Rio Pact as well, leading to a fairly long list of countries that could potentially join the United States in a mutual protection pact.
So our map looks like the following:
Many countries could probably succeed in joining a mutual protection pact with the United States. Mexico, Ecuador, and Bolivia used to be members of the Rio Pact, so their rejoining would be quickly accepted by the rest of the hemisphere. Ukraine and Georgia are applicants to NATO. Mongolia would benefit since they are a small country bordering Russia.
I think expanding the countries we are allied with is good for American national security. It will show we cannot be bullied anymore. It will isolate tyrants and lift up democracies, leading to a more peaceful world.