As we see here, GDP per capita is a major factor in determining the travel freedom of citizens of a given country.
Citizens of countries that have a GDP per capita under $1000 generally have very limited options in terms of countries they can travel to visa-free. Citizens of wealthy countries with a GDP per capita over $20,000 can all travel to over 100 countries visa-free, or they live in Middle Eastern autocracies. GDP per capita is the strongest predictor of the power of a passport.
The strongest predictor of a country’s visa policy however is how many countries their citizens can travel to visa-free.
There are some outliers, namely former British colonies. Some small island countries have more restrictive visa policies than their travel freedom would predict, but otherwise, it makes sense.
If we limit ourselves to only the most democratic countries in the world, we find the following trend:
The dots on the bottom are all former British colonies. Timor Leste is the dot at 93,32, which has a much more restrictive visa policy than one would expect. Taiwan has a much more restrictive visa policy than one would expect. Otherwise, the rest of the countries have open visa policies as one would predict.
Limiting ourselves to only countries with a democracy score under 5, we find most have fairly limited travel freedom and fairly closed visa policies.
Every country where the passport has visa-free access to less than 50 countries has a democracy score under 5 except Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, certainly due to their very limited visa policies. Bangladesh also has a lower corruption perceptions score than one finds among countries with more travel freedom.
{'High democracy': {'High GDP per capita': {'Less powerful passport': 0,
'More powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': {'Anglo': 2,
'Not Anglo': 38},
'Restrictive visa policy': {'Anglo': 4,
'Not Anglo': 0}}},
'Low GDP per capita': {'Less powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': 0,
'Restrictive visa policy': {'Anglo': 0,
'Not Anglo': 4}},
'More powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': 38,
'Restrictive visa policy': {'Anglo': 0,
'Not Anglo': 9}}}},
'Low democracy': {'High GDP per capita': {'Less powerful passport': 0,
'More powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': 5,
'Restrictive visa policy': 3}},
'Low GDP per capita': {'Less powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': 3,
'Restrictive visa policy': 30},
'More powerful passport': {'Liberal visa policy': 15,
'Restrictive visa policy': 16}}}}
As we can see in this data, wealthy countries have more powerful passports and can all travel to at least 50 countries without a visa. There are only four wealthy democracies with powerful passports who allow fewer than 50 countries to travel to their country without any form of visa. Those countries are the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Wealthy democracies that are not Anglo have liberal visa policies, including Ireland and the United Kingdom which are obviously Anglo.
Anglo is defined as at least 50% of the population speak English as their native language.
Among lower-income democracies (nominal GDP per capita under $10,000 and a democracy score over 5) they usually still have fairly powerful passports, especially if they have a fairly liberal visa policy with at least 50 nationalities not needing any form of visa.
For anocracies and autocracies which have a democracy score under 5, only 8 of these countries have a GDP per capita over $10,000. Those 8 countries have a more powerful passport, and they are mostly located in the Middle East, except for Venezuela.
For anocracies and authoritarian regimes with GDP per capita under $50,000, they can go either way. None of them are Anglo.
Recommendations
More visa-free travel is usually a good choice. Most countries are not serious terrorism threats, so requiring visas does not make sense. More liberal visa policies come with far more benefits than any existing downsides. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States should get with the program and extend visa-free travel to at least all member states in the EU, Schengen Area, and all countries that have mutual protection pacts with the United States. Abolish these corrupt eVisa programs. The European Union should backtrack on its planned eVisa for tourists from allied states. Include work visa reform with this motion in the United States. The benefits will far outweigh any costs.
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Liberia, and Sri Lanka are the four countries with weak passports that allow 50 or fewer nationalities to travel to their countries without a visa. Extend visa-free travel to European Union citizens and leave the category of shame. Then your passports will improve.
Some former British colonies have a restrictive visa policy and a low GDP per capita but are still democracies. These countries are Ghana, India, Kenya, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. Throw off this weak tradition of your colonial heritage and allow more people to travel to your country visa-free. It will be a boon to your struggling tourist sectors. Other countries in this category which are not former British colonies are Cape Verde, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Timor Leste. The same applies to them.
To the remaining countries with restrictive visa policies, reform your governments and be more democratic overall. Then your lives will improve. most countries at the bottom of the stack, with low democracy, low GDP per capita, a weak passport, and a restrictive visa policy are located in Africa and Asia. These countries are stuck in the low-trust, high corruption, low income trap. A few countries have successfully transitioned from that state to a fully fledged democracy, mostly in Latin America and former Soviet colonies in Eastern Europe. It starts by removing the corrupt leaders who are stealing from the people.
It is very clear to me that this is one aspect that needs attention from political scientists and activists towards improving the world.