The ceasefire is pretty simple when you get down to it.
Hamas will release all hostages. Israel will release most hostages. Israel ends its blockade on Gaza. Hamas will not rebuild its military abilities.
That’s pretty much it.
It does not solve the fundamental problems that underlie the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These problems are:
- Giving Palestinians voting rights in a UN member state.
- It does not define and enforce solid borders between Israel and Palestine. Solid borders do not require a closed border, just clear boundaries of jurisdiction.
- It does not grant Palestinians any rights when they are faced by Israeli citizens or authorities.
So, in short, I think this entire war was designed to put Trump back into office.
- This benefits Putin by reducing aid to Ukraine.
- It protects Netanyahu by preventing his impeachment which was about to happen in 2023.
- It protects Trump by putting him in office.
- It harms Israelis by not putting in place a permanent framework for peace in the region.
- It harms Palestinians by not removing Hamas and giving the Palestinian Authority a seat at the UN, which is the only way to undermine Hamas.
- Terrorist organizations have benefited significantly by using this war to their advantage to recruit suicide bombers.
- Iranian mullahs have benefited to consolidate power in Iran and portray the United States and Israel as the enemy.
- Qatar has benefited enormously to portray themselves as mediator while Hamas’ leadership is safe in Doha.
- Europe is significantly weakened by a second Trump presidency.
It’s the best we can do at this point in time. There is not a chance in hell of Netanyahu abandoning the settlements in the West Bank. Keeping Gaza as a fiefdom of Hamas strengthens his party by allowing them to fight when it is politically advantageous. It will not bring in democracy in Gaza, and Hamas will continue to rule Hamas. If you think that Hamas will not rearm over the next few years… I have a bridge to sell you.
The only silver lining to this is the bombing of Gaza will temporarily stop and rebuild.
Sorry if this doesn’t make me super happy, it’s better than nothing, but it has not ended the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Nothing has fundamentally changed.