The ceasefire is pretty simple when you get down to it.
Hamas will release all hostages. Israel will release most hostages. Israel ends its blockade on Gaza. Hamas will not rebuild its military abilities.
That’s pretty much it.
It does not solve the fundamental problems that underlie the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These problems are:
- Giving Palestinians voting rights in a UN member state.
- It does not define solid borders between Israel and Palestine. Solid borders do not require a closed border, just clear boundaries of jurisdiction.
- It does not grant Palestinians any rights when they are faced by Israeli citizens or authorities.
So, in short, I think this entire war was designed to put Trump back into office.
- This benefits Putin by reducing aid to Ukraine.
- It protects Netanyahu by preventing his impeachment which was about to happen in 2023.
- It protects Trump by putting him in office.
- It harms Israelis by not putting in place a permanent framework for peace in the region.
- It harms Palestinians by not removing Hamas and giving the Palestinian Authority a seat at the UN, which is the only way to undermine Hamas.
It’s the best we can do at this point in time. There is not a chance in hell of Netanyahu abandoning the settlements in the West Bank. Keeping Gaza as a fiefdom of Hamas strengthens his party by allowing them to fight when it is politically advantageous.
Sorry if this doesn’t make me super happy, it’s better than nothing, but it has not ended the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Nothing has fundamentally changed.