Building off my last post…
I have my dataset, which has the partisan affiliation of every Senator and Governor in US history. It also has the partisan affiliation of each president in US history and shows how states have voted in every election since 1788.
I just graphed how many states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic Senators have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since the formation of the Democratic Party in 1828.
As we can see, among all states in the United States that have had this political arrangement since 1992, they almost always vote for the Democratic nominee for President.
If we filter it down to states with over ten electors, we then have the following graph:
No state with this criterion has voted for a Republican in any Presidential election since 1988.
As long as people turn out and vote for Kamala Harris, I think this trend will continue.
Reversing this for Whig or Republican-controlled states:
Now filtering to states with over ten electors:
See that uptick in 2020? Those states are Arizona and Georgia. Maine is in the graph with all states.
We will see if this trend continues on Tuesday.
But with this data in mind and ruling out a Reagan-esque election this week… this brings us to the following map using the data from this article:
I do not think Harris will lose New England or Virginia.
Which puts Harris at a minimum of 270 votes.
The remaining states don’t matter in our archaic voting system.
I think Harris is going to win.
Now, go vote and make it happen.