Building off my last post… I have my dataset, which has the partisan affiliation of every Senator and Governor in US history. It also has the partisan affiliation of each president in US history and shows how states have voted in every election since 1788. I just graphed how many states with a Democratic governor …
Monthly Archives: November 2024
State flip predictors
My theory is the partisan control of the governorship and Senate seat is a good predictor for how people will vote in a Presidential election. The higher the prediction, the more likely the state will vote for a Democrat. All presidential elections since 1830 are included. A state gets one point if the Governor or …
Israel is not like Hamas
When people describe the interests in the Israeli-Palestinian War as Israel vs. Hamas as what Israel wants vs. what Hamas wants, they are equivocating Israel with Hamas, and the two are very different. Israel is a country with multiple interest groups, and Hamas is a totalitarian terrorist organization. They are not the same. If there …
How 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats
We must get past this Tuesday, but looking forward to the future is important. Seeing the polls now and historic election trends, I think there is a genuine possibility that 2028 could be a landslide for Democrats. This is the base map that I think will be applicable in 2028. Democrats only need to win …
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4 days to go
This is my prediction map for the election. I think Harris has a 7/8 chance of winning. Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are pure tossups. Arizona will not make a difference. Harris will win the presidency if she wins one of those three swing states. Giving Trump only a 1/8 chance of being elected on …