Kamala’s keys

When Kamala Harris becomes President in January she has 4 years to have a different approach to power than Biden has sought.

“Unity” is not a Key to the White House. Presidents can and have been elected without bipartisan support.

Kamala’s keys

Harris must pass a major piece of legislation directly affecting Americans. The economy and health care are the top concerns facing Americans. Introduce a public option and extend Medicare to cover long-term care. This is a key to the Presidency.

Maintaining a strong economy for her entire term grants her two keys, for a total of three keys.

I do not think Harris will have a scandal as President. She will then have four keys.

If Harris supports Ukraine fully and they win the war, that will count as a major foreign policy success. She will have five keys.

There cannot be a major military or foreign policy failure while she is President. The Gaza War, the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are all major foreign policy failures. None of this can be repeated. She will now have six out of thirteen keys.

Six keys to the White House are in the President’s direct control. If a President successfully unlocks those six keys, she is probably charismatic, bringing her to seven.

A charismatic President will not have a serious primary challenger, bringing her to eight out of thirteen keys.

It is also likely that the President will win a Party mandate in the midterm, with a major foreign policy success and a major law passed through Congress in her first congressional meeting, bringing her to nine keys.

A president with a successful foreign and domestic policy will almost certainly run for a second term, ten keys.

She will be popular, and it’s highly unlikely that a third party will do well in the general election, bringing her to eleven keys.

The likelihood of social unrest in such a scenario is non-existent. Twelve keys.

The only key the President does not have direct control over is how charismatic her challenger is, which fully depends on how organized the opposing major party is. But at this point, the President has achieved Twelve keys to power.

Former president mistakes

Donald Trump screwed up the economy with his handling of COVID. This led to social unrest and was a scandal. He likely would have won reelection against Biden if not for his disastrous handling of COVID.

The Democratic Party was disorganized in 2014, which led to its loss in the midterms. This resulted in no major policy change before 2016. Parties need to compete everywhere to win a mandate and pass a major policy. 2016 was a weird election for these reasons.

George W. Bush’s second term was disastrous. The economy was in freefall, and the Iraq War was going badly.

Al Gore had the most keys in 2000. The Electoral College voted against the will of the people.

Bill Clinton won because the economy was in recession in 1992.

Carter suffered from a poor economy. He was unable to pass a major policy change.

Gerald Ford had to deal with the legacy of Nixon’s administration, which he did not handle well.

Nixon won because of protests against the Vietnam War. So, the peace candidate lost due to peace protests. It was a weird election.

The economy was in recession in 1960, and multiple foreign policy failures occurred in Eisenhower’s administration’s last few years.

Truman’s last term had no major policy despite a party mandate, no incumbency advantage, investigations into corruption, and lots of problems, which led to the highly charismatic Eisenhower winning.

Herbert Hoover was a deeply uncharismatic man who presided over a horrendous recession. He had no control over Congress and failed as president, leading Roosevelt to victory.

Woodrow Wilson flipped almost every key to false during his second term. A recession, Republican congress, and social unrest gave the Republicans a win.

Taft had a third-party challenger, a primary challenger, little charisma, and no major policy change.

Over the last 120 years, those are all the times the Presidency has flipped to the other party.

Former Presidential wins

The most notable reelection campaigns are the following:

Obama had only three false keys. Lichtman claims Obama was not charismatic, I’m not sure I agree, and he claims the economy was poor. Obama did fail to maintain control of Congress in 2010, though. Every other key was positive.

Reagan’s reelection and the election of George H.W. Bush were slam dunks.

LBJ in 1964 had almost every key in his favor.

Eisenhower, in 1956, had everything except a major policy change in his first term.

Franklin Roosevelt was a master of the keys, never having more than 2 false keys in his entire Presidency.

Every key was in Theodore Roosevelt’s favor in 1904, the last time a President had every key to the Presidency.

McKinley had three false keys. He supported civil rights and was generally popular.

The results of these presidential administrations are the background for what I think Harris should do so she has a successful first term and an easy path to winning the general election in 2028.

Don’t worry about bipartisanship. Govern well and win.