Kamala Harris is going to be the next president of the United States. She consistently leads in the polls, between 3 and 9 points. In the betting odds, her odds are -106 versus Trump’s +118.
She is going to win, and it is not a surprise.
The Keys to the White House is essential to my analysis.
The history of the Democratic Party over the last 100 years can be divided into three categories. Before 1932, the Democratic Party was the governing party of the Solid South. It was socially conservative and economically not much different from the Republicans. This era goes back to before the Civil War.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt founded the modern Democratic Party with the New Deal, the basis of its progressive wing. Democrats won 7 of the following nine elections, and our candidates were excellent. Roosevelt and Truman continued to deliver major policy changes, had no foreign affairs blunders, the economy was continuously improving and had no scandals. There was political chaos and a weak long term economy in 1952 among other issues, plus Eisenhower was extremely charismatic, giving him the win in 1952 and 1956.
The recession of 1960 and Russian advances in the space race gave Kennedy the win in 1960. Both Kennedy and Johnson were charismatic. I disagree with Lichtman’s belief Johnson was not charismatic, he was the most effective president in history in regards to passing human rights law.
The election of 1968 was close, and the Democrats became progressively more socially liberal over the period. The primary election was crazy with Bobby Kennedy being assassinated, and there was a lot of anger in the Vietnam War. I have a suspicion the anger over Vietnam was manufactured to bring down Johnson. We were obligated to defend Vietnam by treaty. Humphrey stood by our treaty and barely lost the election. Unfortunately, he did not convince the American people of the importance of the importance of standing up for our allies, and this is why he was uncharismatic. This was the end of the New Deal era. There was a primary contest, Johnson did not run for reelection, and a stalemate in Vietnam turned too many keys false, giving Nixon the Presidency.
Democrats then moved towards a defensive position and blaming the Great Society for America’s woes in the 1972 election. This was the beginning of the New Democratic caucus. Each Democratic candidate lacked charisma until 2008. We lost badly. We defeated Nixon (yes, I know Ford was running but we were campaigning against Nixon’s actions, and it worked) in 1976 because of Watergate. Carter was a relatively moderate Democrat. Without Watergate to run against we lost in 1980.
Mondale ran a relatively liberal campaign around the Equal Rights Amendment but also promised to raise taxes. 1984 was going to be a hard election no matter what. People perceived America as doing well under Reagan’s term, which prevented social unrest and prevented the scandals of the Reagan presidency from being reported on. Reagan was a professional actor, which increased his charisma. In 1988 the media still favored Bush by not reporting on Reagan’s scandals, and the Reagan Recession was finally over.
The economy was in recession in 1992, which gave Bill Clinton the win. By 1996, the economy was strong, giving Clinton the win.
In 2000 Al Gore would have won if all the votes were counted in Florida.
In 2004, a strong economy and removing the Taliban from power in Afghanistan gave Bush the win. If Democrats had nominated a charismatic candidate and made the PATRIOT ACT into a political issue Bush would have been defeated, but we did not campaign on it. I disagree with the statement Bush did not make a major foreign policy chance, the PATRIOT ACT changed everything.
Most of the candidates since 1968 were relatively conservative and lacked charisma. That is why the Republicans won most of the
By 2008, Democrats had their first charismatic candidate since 1964, a weak economy and a faltering war in Iraq gave Obama an easy win. Bush had 9 false keys, the highest number since 1960.
I disagree Obama was not charismatic in 2012. But it doesn’t matter. Obama had the fewest false keys for any incumbent presidential candidate since Reagan and Bush.
In 2016 we lost because Clinton lacked charisma, barely losing against Donald Trump.
In 2020, we won because of COVID-19. Trump’s weak economy flipped two keys false, giving Biden the win. If there had not been COVID-19 or if Trump had handled it better, Trump would have had six false keys and won the election. In a world without COVID, Trump would have started with 5 false keys, meaning Democrats would have needed a charismatic candidate, and we would have won, giving Trump 6 false keys. I disagree that Trump’s tax reforms count as a major policy change.
This year’s election starts Harris off with a strong hand. Biden passed the most significant gun control legislation since Clinton and the Respect for Marriage Act, both of which are major policies. The economy is strong. There is no major social unrest, despite Likud’s actions in Palestine. The only false keys Harris will have this year are no party mandate since they barely lost the 2022 midterms, no incumbency advantage, and two foreign policy failures in Afghanistan and Gaza. If Ukraine wins before November or Israel withdraws from Gaza we will have a major military success. I’m not certain whether Harris is charismatic or not, but Trump certainly is not.
This is why Harris will win this year.
For 2028, President Harris needs to force a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine, recognize Palestine, and, if Ukraine does not win before November, ensure they win as soon as possible. That will give her foreign military success. She also needs to maintain a strong economy, like every other Democrat over the last century.
Harris needs seven true keys to win in 2028. I think she could have 10 true keys. Here is what Harris needs to do to win in 2028:
- Run for reelection.
- Maintain a strong economy, like every other Democrat since 1932.
- No recession in 2028.
- Win in Ukraine or finally get a peace agreement signed between Israel and Palestine which will last.
- Do not send weapons to Israel if they bomb civilians, for that is a military failure. Do not allow Russia to annex Ukraine.
- Pass a major policy. Health care is a viable target. Pass either single-payer or a public option. Either would count as a major policy.
- Do not have a scandal, which is unlikely since only one Democrat in the last century has turned the scandal key false: Clinton in 1992.
- The previous keys being true will ensure she won’t have a serious third-party contender.
- They also will ensure no social unrest.
- They also will ensure she will not have a serious primary contender.
The only three keys remaining are whether she or her opponent is perceived as charismatic and whether she has a party mandate in 2028. She has very little power over these. The Party mandate key is controlled by the Democratic National Committee by how they support Democratic candidates for Congress. Charisma is either obvious, such as how Obama is charismatic or can be manufactured by the media through selective reporting. Regardless, the other 10 keys are in control of the administration no matter how the media reports on the President.