Nigel Farage is the most powerful man in Britain

Part 4 of my series on the British election.

• Part 1 details Prime Minister Keir Starmer‘s politics and how he fits into Labour’s coalition.
• Part 2 details current Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner‘s ideology and why I believe she will succeed Starmer.
• Part 3 is a historical analysis of last night’s election.

Nigel Farage has a lot of power right now and has said he will be as annoying as possible. I expect his Reform Party to reunite with the Conservatives by the end of the year, and he will be the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The Tories will fear that if they refuse Nigel Farage’s offer, he will continue to steal votes from them in the 2029 election, preventing the Conservatives from winning until he gets his way.

I do not believe we will end up in a situation where Nigel Farage loses Conservative leadership and Reform UK merges with the Conservative Party. Nigel Farage is a bigot and an extremist. He wants to blow things up.

This decision tree is my hypothesis on what will happen to the Conservative Party in the future:

• Nigel Farage runs for the Conservative leadership.
  • Nigel Farage wins
    • No electoral reform
      • Conservative Party wins in 2029
    • Electoral reform
      • Conservative Party loses in 2029
  • Nigel Farage loses
    • Reform UK stays independent (electoral reform does not matter)
      • Conservative Party loses in 2029
• Nigel Farage does not run for Conservative leadership
  • Conservative voters swing to Reform UK (maybe 10% probability)
    • No electoral reform
      • Reform UK wins in 2029
    • Electoral reform
      • Conservative Party loses in 2029
  • Conservative voters do not swing to Reform UK.
    • Conservative Party loses in 2029

The only sure path to victory for the Conservatives is for Starmer to stay as PM, meaning no electoral reform, and Nigel Farage to become the Leader of the Conservative Party. This pattern of minor parties merging into one of the big two parties reverberates across British history and all other countries that use first past the post.

Who is Nigel Farage

https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-politicians/nigel-farage-net-worth/

Nigel Farage is one of the richest politicians in the UK, and that’s only counting his clean money. I am willing to bet he has a lot of money in less-than-kosher accounts across the world, and he saw anti-money laundering rules passing the EU and immediately started playing this act for the last eight years to protect his laundered money.

It makes a lot of sense and passes the probable cause barrier.

Brexit has economically hammered the UK. The only way he would personally and financially benefit from Brexit is if he looked down the barrel of EU regulators, ensuring his bank accounts were from legitimate sources. In every other circumstance, he would lose money by losing easy access to invest in European businesses. However, if he is investing in illegal investments, which the EU now investigates thoroughly, he would have a lot to lose.

So he pushes this xenophobic ultra-nationalist nonsense about “taking back our country” to protect his dirty laundry.

This alone passes the bar of probable cause for the National Crime Agency to ensure that Nigel Farage’s bank accounts are kosher. Because if he does not have illicit funds, why push for Brexit when he did? It does not make sense.

We do know that Nigel Farage accepts “gifts” from other millionaires in exchange for political favors (obviously). https://www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farages-funding-secrets-revealed

The issue is, what has he successfully hidden that the European Union was going to find?

The Labour Party needs to pass proportional representation so this crook does not become Prime Minister.