Allen Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House is a monumental study that correctly predicts the electoral college in every election since 1984 except 2000. He predicts Biden will win the election this year, with only 2-4 false keys. How can we use this research to dictate policy, both internal party politics and national policy, over the next 4 years in order to win in 2028?
Key 1: Party Mandate
Democrats need to pick up 6 seats in the House of Representatives this year and keep a majority through 2028. This both allows Biden to pass policy and is a key to the White House.
Key 2: No Primary Contest/Key 12: Charismatic Incumbent
Democrats need a clear candidate in 2028 who will carry the party with no serious challenger. It needs to be a challenger who can carry progressives and almost half of the New Democrats.
Key 3: Incumbent Seeking re-election
We will not have this key in 2028.
Key 4: No third party
Sticking to the platform will ensure third party candidates have a bad year. Our candidate must not be opposed to popular planks in our party platform.
Key 5/6: Strong economy
If Biden is like every other Democrat in the last century, we will have a strong economy.
Key 7: Major policy change
A trifecta can deliver a federal public option which will give Biden this key.
Key 8: No social unrest
Solving the crisis in Gaza and defeating Russia in Ukraine will ensure there is no social unrest on foreign issues. Passing a public option will reduce our uninsured rate, increasing the feelings of a strong economy for average Americans. These three policies will keep this key true.
Key 9: No scandal
It’s Biden. He is not scandal-prone.
Key 10/11: No major foreign/military failure and Major foreign/military success
Defeat Russia in Ukraine and solve the crisis in Palestine with a major treaty. These two accomplishments are worth two keys.
Key 13: Uncharismatic challenger
We have no control over this.
If Biden does those three policies:
- Peace treaty with Palestine and Israel followed by legitimate elections in Palestine.
- Arm Ukraine so they can defeat Russia and then have Ukraine join NATO.
- Pass a health insurance public option.
These three policies will guarantee Democrats will win in 2028 more than anything else we can do.