Current situation
Joe Manchin and Karen Sinema are de facto Republicans and must be treated as such. Likewise, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are de facto Democrats and must be treated as such.
De facto 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate today.
Democrats win 2024
If Democrats win in 2024, we won’t lose any seats. We’ll flip Arizona, giving us 50 seats in the US Senate. Texas, Florida, and Indiana are tossups since the Republicans received less than 51% of the vote in those three states in 2018.
From this reality, two possibilities emerge: either the Democrats again perform well in 2026 or the Republicans perform well in 2026.
Democrats have 50 seats, Republicans 47, and there are 3 tossups.
Democrats then win again in 2026
Democrats pick up in North Carolina and Maine to give Democrats 52 seats in total.
Texas is again a tossup due to shifting demographics and poor performance for the Republicans in 2018.
Democrats have 52 seats, and Republicans have 44. There are four tossups in total, two in Texas and one each in Indiana and Florida.
Republicans then win in 2026
If Republicans have a good year in 2026 following a strong Democratic year in 2024, I believe this will make Georgia and Maine tossups. Georgia because it is in the Deep South and if there is poor voter turnout among African Americans, the Democrat will lose. I think no matter what happens, Maine is going to be a relatively easy pickup for the Democrats, given how Maine is part of New England and has liberal values which do not match those of the Republican Party.
Democrats have 49 seats, Republicans 46, and there are 5 tossups.
Republicans win in 2024
If Republicans win this year, however, it will be a very different story for the next four years.
The best Republicans can hope for is flipping Montana, but Democrats will flip Arizona. Nothing else changes.
This gives the Democrats 49 and Republicans 51 seats. There will be no overall change.
This is a substantial finding because if Democrats have a good year this year, it will be almost impossible for Republicans to regain control of the Senate in 2026! The Senate’s map favorability really does skew toward the Democrats this year.
Republicans win again in 2026
If the Republicans win again after winning in 2026, they will flip Georgia, but nothing else will change from the 2024 map. The biggest victory for Republicans is holding Maine, which is a stretch.
48 Democrats and 52 Republicans is the best the GOP can hope for in the next two Senate elections.
Democrats win in 2026 after Republican 2024
If the Democrats have a good year after the Republicans in 2024, I believe Democrats will then flip seats in Maine and North Carolina. Texas will be a toss-up.
51 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 1 tossup.
Overview
| 2024 result | 2026 result | D | R | T |
| D | D | 52 | 44 | 4 |
| D | R | 49 | 46 | 5 |
| R | D | 51 | 48 | 1 |
| R | R | 48 | 52 | 0 |
The only way the Republicans can reliably win control of the Senate is if they have a good year this year, and again in 2026. But this requires them to substantially overperform in Maine, and break the current trends in Texas and Florida from the last decade which have seen them move from Republican strongholds to having much closer elections over the last 6 years.
That is highly unlikely given how unpopular Donald Trump is.
If Democrats win this year, the Republicans won’t be in a good position again to win until at least 2028.
The potential swing states of the 2020s are:
- Montana
- Indiana
- Ohio
- Texas
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Wisconsin
- Georgia
- Maine
- Iowa
Every other state is unlikely to flip a Senate seat.
If Republicans fail to flip the Senate seat in Montana, they will likely not be able to win control of the Senate this November.
If Republicans fail to flip Montana this year and then fail to flip Ossof’s seat in Georgia in 2026, they have no path to a majority in the Senate.
If Iowa comes into play, Republicans are screwed. If Iowa is in play in 2026, subtract one from the Republican column and add one to the tossup column.
If Democrats campaign well, we will win. We need to win Sinema’s seat in Arizona and lose nothing.