“Wait a minute, this war has been going on for 10 years, Russia has had every advantage, and after 10 years they only occupy 18 percent of Ukraine,” Hodges said. “They [have] lost half a million troops, the Black Sea Fleet is getting worse by the day, and the Air Force is unable to get air superiority.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-hang-on-in-2024-to-win-in-2025-putin-zelenskky-russia-counteroffensive/
This quote summarizes the situation precisely. The Russian “naval fleet” in Sevastopol is quickly being turned into the Russian submarine fleet. Despite four times the people, 10x the GDP, and almost twice the military spending, and almost 3 times the number of available trained military personnel, Russia is unable to take over Ukraine.
Despite having the support of China which does not depend on passing through Congress, so it is stable and consistent Russian advances in Ukraine have been small. They were able to take Avdiivka, but that took them over six months when Ukraine was running out of weapons due to delayed military aid from the United States, courtesy of the Republican Party.
If Ukraine and Russia were tied in military ability, one would expect Russia to have already taken over Ukraine, but they have not. Corruption is a major issue with Russia’s military, which squanders their ability to fight.
Simple math shows that for every Ukrainian soldier who is killed defending their democracy, 4 Russian barbarians need to be unalived.
Currently, 2.5 Russian vatniks have been unalived for every Ukrainian who has been killed.
If NATO weapons can increase the ratio to 4:1 and allow Ukraine to attack Russian troops before they reach Ukrainian territory, it will become impossible for Russia to win.
Allow Ukraine to bomb military targets in Russia. The Kremlin is a military target.
Send Ukraine every weapon they request as long as possible because that is what China will do so they can invade Taiwan if Russia wins.
But Russia cannot win.
Even with unstable NATO support and stable Chinese support, Russia still cannot make advances proportional to its advantage in terms of total military equipment and total soldiers.
Even though it has taken more than a week to deliver promised weapons to Ukraine, Russian advances are small. Once the latest aid package reaches Ukraine, which has taken far too long already, Russia will be able to be pushed back.
If Ukraine, with NATO support, can increase the death ratio to 4 Russians for every Ukrainian who dies defending their home, Russia will lose the war. They are already 62% of the way there despite unstable NATO support.
Defeat Russia in Ukraine, unalive Putin, and we will have peace and stability in Europe.