A response to How the EU Failed the Western Balkans by TLDR News.
The reason the Western Balkans have not joined the European Union is simple: the remaining Western Balkan states have not finished closing their accession chapters to join the European Union.
If we use the Democracy Index, Montenegro, Albania, and Macedonia all had scores under 6 until 2021. Bosnia still has a democracy score under 6. Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria were to join because they met the acquis, and their democracy scores were well over 6. A country can’t have a democracy score under 6 and meet all the acquis to join the European Union.
Joining the European Union is not as simple as paying a fee to enter a nightclub and then entering. The European Union is far more than just a military alliance like NATO. It is a complex international organization collaborating across every possible realm of political and economic regulation, which is far more than just a zone for free travel. A lot of decisions the European Union makes require unanimity between members. I personally believe this is a weakness of the European Union, and the bar should be brought down to a 2/3 majority, so if one Hungary abstains from a decision every other country agrees on that, they are unable to block the entire bloc. We have seen with Brexit that leaving the European Union just because you don’t like anti-money laundering laws is a foolish decision, and if there is a problem with a law, you need to use your words and reasoning to block it.
Because of the nature of how the European Union works and the vast number of laws that are made across every aspect of life, it makes sense for joining the European Union to have a high bar; we do not want the European Union to look like Mercosur (for example), where member states are getting suspended but instead for membership to be forever. Keep membership in NATO relatively easy to get with a lower bar, but European Union membership needs to remain restricted to countries with the highest stability level.
| Country | Submitted | Accession / | Length of accession | Years |
| Kosovo Kosovo[20] | 14 December 2022 | [21]Applicant | 425 | 1.16 |
| Moldova Moldova | 3 March 2022 | [16] Negotiating | 711 | 1.95 |
| Georgia (country) Georgia | 3 March 2022 | [17]Candidate | 711 | 1.95 |
| Ukraine Ukraine | 28 February 2022 | [16] Negotiating | 714 | 1.96 |
| Finland Finland | 18 March 1992 | 1 January 1995 | 1019 | 2.79 |
| Sweden Sweden | 1 July 1991 | 1 January 1995 | 1280 | 3.51 |
| Austria Austria | 17 July 1989 | 1 January 1995 | 1994 | 5.46 |
| Greece Greece | 12 June 1975 | 1 January 1981 | 2030 | 5.56 |
| Denmark Denmark | 11 May 1967 | 1 January 1973 | 2062 | 5.65 |
| Republic of Ireland Ireland | 11 May 1967 | 1 January 1973 | 2062 | 5.65 |
| United Kingdom United Kingdom | 10 May 1967 | 1 January 1973 | 2063 | 5.65 |
| Slovenia Slovenia | 10 June 1996 | 1 May 2004 | 2882 | 7.90 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina | 15 February 2016 | [16] Candidate | 2919 | 8.00 |
| Czech Republic Czech Republic | 17 January 1996 | 1 May 2004 | 3027 | 8.29 |
| Lithuania Lithuania | 8 December 1995 | 1 May 2004 | 3067 | 8.40 |
| Estonia Estonia | 24 November 1995 | 1 May 2004 | 3081 | 8.44 |
| Spain Spain | 28 June 1977 | 1 January 1986 | 3109 | 8.52 |
| Latvia Latvia | 13 September 1995 | 1 May 2004 | 3153 | 8.64 |
| Portugal Portugal | 28 March 1977 | 1 January 1986 | 3201 | 8.77 |
| Slovakia Slovakia | 27 June 1995 | 1 May 2004 | 3231 | 8.85 |
| Poland Poland | 5 April 1994 | 1 May 2004 | 3679 | 10.08 |
| Hungary Hungary | 31 March 1994 | 1 May 2004 | 3684 | 10.09 |
| Croatia Croatia | 21 February 2003 | 1 July 2013 | 3783 | 10.36 |
| Bulgaria Bulgaria | 14 December 1995 | 1 January 2007 | 4036 | 11.06 |
| Romania Romania | 22 June 1995 | 1 January 2007 | 4211 | 11.54 |
| Malta Malta | 16 July 1990 | 1 May 2004 | 5038 | 13.80 |
| Cyprus Cyprus | 3 July 1990 | 1 May 2004 | 5051 | 13.84 |
| Serbia Serbia | 22 December 2009 | [21]Negotiating | 5165 | 14.15 |
| Albania Albania | 28 April 2009 | [15]Negotiating | 5403 | 14.80 |
| Montenegro Montenegro | 15 December 2008 | [21]Negotiating | 5537 | 15.17 |
| North Macedonia North Macedonia[G] | 22 March 2004 | [15]Negotiating | 7266 | 19.91 |
| Turkey Turkey | 14 April 1987 | [31][32][21]Frozen negotiations | 13453 | 36.86 |
As we can see, the time for countries to join the European Union ranges from 2 years in Finland, which is an exceptional case, as we can classically see in every social and economic development metric. Romania and Bulgaria are just at the cusp of being predicted on whether they are good candidates for Schengen membership in the regressions I have run.
The current candidates in the Balkans score around the same level as Romania and Bulgaria on the Corruption Perceptions Index. While they want the Balkans to join the European Union, European leaders are also wary of letting countries join when these systemic problems exist. They must deal with these problems before European Union membership is possible.
The freedom of the press in these countries is in line with other Eastern European member states of the European Union. There is little work to be done there to close the chapters. They all score better than Israel, for example. There is good reason to be optimistic of them joining in the future.
There is no appetite to join the European Union in Iceland and Norway; they already have the benefits of Schengen, and there is no desire for deeper integration with the bloc. Russia and Belarus obviously cannot join, and Turkey meets the mark on basically none of the acquis. The Swiss are already Schengen members and do not wish to join further. Microstates of Monaco, Liechtenstein, San Marino, and Vatican City already have freedom of movement. Vatican City cannot join because it is an authoritarian regime. The only remaining potential candidates are already candidates, and the annual reports on their accession status make it very clear which hurdles need to be cleared before they can join. The only country in Europe that could join quickly at this point and has the appetite for it is the United Kingdom.
Once we look at this, I don’t believe there is any appetite for future expansion of the bloc. Croatia joined the Schengen Area only one year ago. Romania and Bulgaria will partially join Schengen on March 31st, and they are expected to fully join Schengen this year or next year once they convince the Austrians to stop stonewalling their accession.
There is no appetite for future expansion from Iceland and Norway; they already have the benefits of Schengen, and there is no desire to have deeper integration with the bloc. Russia and Belarus obviously cannot join, and Turkey meets the mark on basically none of the acquis. The Swiss are already Schengen members and do not wish to join further. Microstates of Monaco, Liechtenstein, San Marino, and Vatican City already have freedom of movement. Vatican City cannot join because it is an authoritarian regime. The only remaining potential candidates are already candidates, and the annual reports on their accession status make it very clear which hurdles need to be cleared before they can join. The only country that could join quickly at this point and has the appetite for it is the United Kingdom.
I want all of the Western Balkans to join the European Union. But for that to happen, they need to meet all of the acquis to join. My advice to them is to look at where they made progress in the components of the Economist’s Democracy Index and work on reforming the areas where their scores are not as high as those of European Union members. As these reforms are made, petition the European Union to analyze their progress and close chapters one by one as these improvements happen. Montenegro, which currently has the highest democracy score of the Balkan states that have not accomplished membership yet, should go to the European Union and work on negotiating to close the acquis chapters. They can talk directly to the governments of existing European Union member states and get support from member states. Much progress has been made in Montenegro in the last few years. For that, the European Union should continue the good process to ensure that all countries that join the bloc meet the requirements to ensure successful integration and continued stability of the bloc. According to the European Union, there are still chapters in each candidate country that require further preparation. Improving these areas through domestic legislation is the proven way to accomplish European Union membership. Internal reform is the necessary next step to EU membership. There are no shortcuts to membership, and there should not be any shortcuts to membership.
Once the chapters are closed, they can focus on lingering disputes with their neighbors with European Union membership while lobbying other European Union member states, particularly Germany and France, to lobby on their behalf towards EU enlargement. Trying to get the support of Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece before closing the acquis chapters is premature.
It is clear what the future holds. The remaining Balkan states need to meet the acquis, and they will join the European Union.
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index