When it comes to Ukraine, there are two solutions, either Ukraine wins or Russia wins. But the reality is Russia cannot win. Ukraine has military support from the West and despite having a significantly smaller population than Russia, Ukraine has successfully managed to prevent Russia from taking over their country. When NATO increases the amount of arms Ukraine receives so they can shatter Russian supply lines to their troops so the Russian troops start to starve Ukraine will be able to reclaim its territory. There is no realistic path to Russia being able to conquer Ukraine, and even if they did Ukraine will be a rebellious province until they win independence again.
On top of this, when Russia loses the war Putin will lose his life. Ukraine is going to win, it is inevitable. We might as well give them the support they need so the war can end sooner and fewer people lose their lives. Ukraine’s winning scenario, as has been made very clear by President Zelensky, is that Ukraine will get back all of its territory as it had in 2013. The Russian soldiers chose to stay in their country and refused to revolt against their dictator. They will pay with their lives. It’s only a matter of time.
Israel however is a very different situation. Regarding Ukraine, the objectives of Zelensky and his nation are identical. If Zelensky wins, Ukraine wins, and vice versa. When it comes to Israel I am going to demonstrate there is no way Israel can win while Likud wins as well. This puts Israel in the worst quagmire of its history.
The way Israel can win this war is by allowing refugees from Gaza into refugee camps outside of the strip. Elders and children, along with all working-age people who are not members of Hamas will be given shelter, food, and medical supplies in camps run by Israel in Israeli territory. The Israeli military can then go into Gaza, remove all weapons Hamas has been using to launch rockets into Israel, and then grant citizenship to the Palestinians and help them build a life in a unified state. I don’t think a two-state solution is going to happen. The problem with this is it will be the end of the Likud Party’s time in government. Netanyahu cannot choose this option and stay Prime Minister. But it is the solution for Israel. This is what makes the end of this war a complete quagmire.
If Israel stops bombarding Gaza and sends aid into Gaza without eliminating Hamas, Netanyahu loses power. This is not an option for him.
If Israel continues to bombard Gaza it doesn’t matter how many apartments, hospitals, and schools they blow up, Hamas leadership is safe in Doha. Hamas’ assets are diversified across the Middle East. Israel cannot win this war simply by blowing up every building in Gaza.
If Israel kills every person in Gaza, that is genocide, and their approval rating and image abroad will tank. This is a losing scenario and highly unethical.
What also must be kept into consideration is the longer Israel bombards Gaza, the more likely it is Iran will get involved with their ICBMs and start to pummel Israel with everything they have, starting with Tel Aviv. This would be a catastrophe, and cannot occur.
This is where this becomes a scenario with no path where the government of Israel can win. They cannot stop bombing, because they will lose the next election, and they cannot continue bombing because eventually there will be attacks from Iran against Israel, a war they cannot win.
Israel is not part of any military alliance. If Israel gets itself into a war with another state, there is no obligation for any other country to send troops to protect Israel. They will be on their own except for military aid. You cannot military aid your way out of a reign of hellfire of ICBMs raining down on your largest city.
Netanyahu is in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. He needs to sacrifice his political career for the safety of his country. Based on history, we know he will not do the right thing for Israel. He never has. I don’t see a good path out of the current conflict for Israel before the next election. Only time will tell.