How to win the midterms

There are several ways to win elections in American politics, and successful strategies are opposite depending if you are in power or out of power. Other impacts outside the control of politicians (such as media bias) can impact election outcomes, but ultimately politicians will collectively determine their fate.

When you are in power, you want to do the following:

• Improve quality of life.
• If the quality of life has improved, make sure the ads tell people that their life has improved.
• Don’t ask. Tell. Asking gives people the opportunity to say no and question whether what you are saying is true. Only ask if you are absolutely confident what the answer will be, like Reagan’s campaign against inflation in 1984.
• Pass policies which help as many people as possible. Improve the standard of living for the voters you need in order to keep power. This is the most important one of them all. Do everything you can.

When you are out of power, you want to do the following:

• Make it very clear how you are different from the incumbent. Especially if there are serious problems impacting people’s lives.
• Point to successes the last time your party was in power.
• Point out inherent inequities, and problems which average people feel. Doesn’t matter if the incumbent has anything to do with it. If the incumbent did harm the country, even better for you.

None of this is really that complicated.

The Republicans are already doing everything they can from the third list. They are pointing out every problem with the economy, and they will keep talking about it incessantly until they get back power. Democrats should learn from this. Republicans are able to win on a platform where almost every policy is significantly unpopular because they are relentless in their pursuit of power.

But this is not relevant right now for Democrats.

There are several major midterms relevant for the 2022 election to look at historical results. We need to look at elections similar to the first midterm of a president who flipped the Presidency to their party. Elections which count are 2018, 2010, 2002, 1994, 1982, 1970, 1962, 1954, and 1934. There are several variables at play which make an impact:

• Are the majority of Americans still angry at the other party for some reason?
• Has the quality of life significantly improved since the Presidency flipped?
• Has the incumbent President passed a major bill since being elected?
• Is the messaging from the party on point? Is there something for the canvassers to talk about which people already know about?
• Which parties are actively campaigning in as many places as possible?

Really it comes down to this. If all your canvassers have to do is point to a successful policy which everyone knows about and is popular, and claim credit, you will probably do well. If anger towards the other party is still high from the last time they screwed everything up, your job is also easier. These are the ideal ways.

A policy which will start improving lives in the future will not impact peoples votes in the next election. Politicians need to win elections in order to enact policy.

Not financing canvassers is surrender.

Let’s analyze historic elections with these factors:

• 2018:
  • anger is directed towards Republicans.
  • quality of life is the same as when Obama was in power.
  • No major legislation, though one highly publicized failure with the ACA still being law. The ACA is popular now because its in effect.
  • Not much for Republican canvassers to talk about. Lots of outrageous comments from Trump which make people angry.
  • Democrats have new leadership. The 50 state strategy is mostly back.
  • Democrats win
• 2010:
  • Republicans are busy pointing out how Obamacare is the end of capitalism.
  • Quality of life is improving, gradually. Unemployment is declining from its early 2009 peak.
  • ACA has passed, but most sections won’t come into effect until 2014. You can’t campaign on maybes and possibilities.
  • Aside from banking regulation, all Democratic policies will be implemented in the future. People haven’t felt the impact of Obama’s policies yet.
  • Democrats have new leadership. The 50 state strategy is out, Tim Kaine is highly focused on a handful of states.
  • Republicans win.
• 2002:
  • Republicans are busy portraying America as safe from terrorist attacks with bipartisan legislation which passed.
  • Economy has recovered from the dot com bubble.
  • Republicans focus on safety and security in the new surveillance state.
  • Democrats voted for all of Bush’s policies. They have nothing to show how they are significantly different.
  • Republican leadership campaigns in as many places as possible.
  • Republicans win.
• 1994:
  • Democrats to date have never clearly pointed out that the highest unemployment rate from 1960-2019 was in Reagan’s Presidency. Most people won’t know if you don’t tell them.
  • Economy is strong.
  • Clinton has some major accomplishments, like gun reform, and the assault weapons ban. Republicans are furious. The bill he put the most time into was Hillarycare, which unfortunately failed.
  • Republicans focus on macroeconomic goals, which most people do not understand, and put all of their effort towards false claims about how their macroeconomic goals will save the economy.
  • Republicans win

I could go on with previous elections, but the point is clear. Politicians have a responsibility to significantly impact the narrative. If you say you will do something big in the campaign, and then you can, but you don’t, voters will remember in the midterms. That’s an important piece of what happened in 1994. Clinton had an opportunity to control the narrative, but by failing to pass his health care initiative, he had lost his major policy initiative. He did other good things during those two years, including gun control, which has saved lives, but people want good health care because it impacts our lives so regularly, it’s a promise people remember.

For the Biden administration there are lessons to be learned here. Whether or not anything else gets through congress this session, there are still things Biden can do to impact peoples lives before the midterms. The infrastructure bill will not start having an impact on peoples lives probably until the Biden administration is in the history books. It will not help much with the midterms. Biden needs policies which will impact voters in the next 11 months. He needs those policies to hit demographics where turnout is not guaranteed, and help them enough that when he says “Go deliver me another trifecta” (telling, not asking) that voters will realize that they should follow his strong recommendation. They need to be personally invested in the outcome of the 2022 election and understand how it impacts their lives.

There are two policies Biden can do right now which will both fulfill campaign promises Joe Biden made, increase turnout and enthusiasm among key stakeholders in the administration, and also improve our economy. Those two policies are:

• Forgive all student loans up to $50,000
• Pardon all federal marijuana offenses.

The last time we saw such bold policies which impacted voters at such extreme levels before the upcoming midterms was before the 1966 election. That allowed more social and economic legislation to be passed which helped millions of Americans.

That is the easy way for Democrats to win the midterms so Biden can be the first democrat to have a trifecta for his entire first term since Jimmy Carter.