Closest presidential elections in American history, Part 1

What would happen if you were to take the states which voted for the winner with under 51% of the vote and flip those states to the loser in all historical Presidential elections since Andrew Jackson?

Here’s the answer:

In 2020 Joe Biden won 306 electoral college votes. Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan voted for him with less than 51% of the vote. Those six states are worth 79 electoral college votes, which means he would have only won 227 electoral college votes, and Trump would have been reelected.

In 2016 Donald Trump won 304 electoral college votes. Utah, Nebraska’s 2nd, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia would have flipped, worth 124 electoral college votes, which would have given him 180 in total, and Hillary Clinton would have been President.

In 2012 Barack Obama won 332 electoral college votes. He only won Florida and Ohio with under 51% of the vote, worth 47 electoral college votes, which would have given him 285 electoral college votes, meaning he won in a landslide.

In 2008 Barack Obama won 365 electoral college votes. He won North Carolina, Indiana, and Nebraska’s 2nd with under 51% of the vote, worth 27 electoral college votes. He would have gotten 338 electoral college votes, and still would have won in a landslide.

In 2004 George W. Bush won 286 electoral college votes. He won New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio with less than 51% of the vote, which would have been 37 more votes for Kerry. Bush would have won 249 electoral college votes and John Kerry would have been President.

In 2000 George W. Bush won 271 electoral college votes. He won New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, and Colorado with under 51% of the vote, worth 73 electoral college votes, meaning he would have only won 198 votes and Al Gore would have been President.

In 1996 Bill Clinton won 379 electoral college votes. He won Nevada, Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon, Ohio, Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, and Iowa with under 51% of the vote. These add up to 156 electoral college votes, putting him at 223 electoral college votes, and Bob Dole would have been President.

In 1992 Bill Clinton won 370 electoral college votes. He won Nevada, Montana, Maine’s 2nd, Maine, New Hampshire, Maine’s 1st, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, Georgia, Minnesota, Delaware, Michigan, Missouri, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, New Mexico, California, Vermont, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Hawaii, West Virginia, Illinois, New York, and Maryland with under 51% of the vote. He only won 9 votes with over 51% of the vote in 1992. That election was way too close, mostly because of Ross Perot.

In 1988 George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral college votes. He won only Illinois and Pennsylvania with under 51% of the vote, worth 49 electoral votes which would have given him 377 votes. He won in a landslide.

In 1984 Ronald Reagan won 525 electoral college votes, and got over 51% of the vote in every state he won.

In 1980 Ronald Reagan won 489 electoral college votes. He won with under 51% in Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Maine’s 1st, New York, Maine’s 2nd, Delaware, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Connecticut, Oregon, Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan, Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, his birth state of Illinois, and Washington. These states add up to 226 electoral college votes, which would have given Reagan only 263 and given Carter a second term.

In 1976 James Carter won 297 electoral college votes. He won with under 51% of the vote in Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Wisconsin, and Ohio, worth 74 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped, Ford would have won reelection.

In 1972 Richard Nixon won 520 electoral college votes, and won every state with over 51% of the vote. Too bad he was a rat bastard.

In 1968 Richard Nixon won 301 electoral college votes. He won fewer than 51% of the vote in Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Delaware, Ohio, Alaska, New Jersey, Illinois, Nevada, Oklahoma, California, Wisconsin, Oregon, Indiana, Colorado, and Montana. These states add up to 245 electoral college votes, giving Nixon only 66 electoral college votes if those states had flipped. Wallace really disrupted the election, but if Wallace hadn’t run, they would have voted for Nixon anyways, so Nixon won with a spoiler which took votes from himself. 1968 is a very consequential and complicated year, and the fact that Nixon won while there was a spoiler stealing votes from him is telling of how chaotic that year was. Too bad he was a rat bastard.

In 1964 Lyndon Johnson won 486 electoral college votes, and won only Idaho with under 51% of the vote. He would have won 482 electoral college votes and still won the election. This was the first year Republicans won the South as a bloc since Reconstruction.

In 1960 John F. Kennedy won 303 electoral college votes. He won New Jersey, Illinois, Hawaii, New Mexico, Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Texas, Minnesota, Delaware, and Michigan with under 51% of the vote. These states add up to 139 electoral college votes, which would have given him only 164 electoral college votes and given Nixon the election. Good thing Kennedy squeaked out a win here, because Nixon was a rat bastard.

I really, really hate Richard Nixon, if you can’t tell.

In 1956 Dwight Eisenhower won with 457 electoral college votes. He won only Tennessee with under 51% of the vote, meaning if he lost Tennessee he would have had 446 electoral college votes and still won the Presidency. This was the last year where Republicans won most of the North and Democrats won the Solid South.

In 1952 Dwight Eisenhower won with 442 electoral college votes. He won Tennessee, Missouri, and Rhode Island with under 51% of the vote, worth 31 electoral college votes, meaning if he had lost those he would have won 409 electoral college votes and still won the Presidency.

In 1948 Harry Truman won with 303 electoral college votes. He won California, Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, Ohio, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin with under 51% of the vote, worth a combined 137 electoral college votes, which mean if he lost those state he would have only won 166 electoral college votes and Dewey would have been President.

In 1944 Franklin Roosevelt won 432 electoral college votes. He only won Michigan and New Jersey with under 51% of the vote, worth a combined 35 electoral college votes. If those states flipped President Roosevelt would have still won 398 electoral college votes and the Presidency.

In 1940 Franklin Roosevelt won 449 electoral college votes. He only won Wisconsin and Illinois with under 51% of the vote, worth a combined 41 electoral college votes. He would have still won 408 electoral college votes, and the Presidency.

In 1936 Franklin Roosevelt won 523 electoral college votes. He only won New Hampshire by under 51%, which means that if New Hampshire flipped he would have won 519 electoral college votes and the Presidency.

In 1932 Franklin Roosevelt won 472 electoral college votes. He only won New Jersey, Ohio, and Massachusetts with under 51% of the vote, worth 59 electoral college votes, which means if those three states flipped he would have won 413 votes, and still won handily.

In 1928 Herbert Hoover won 444 electoral college votes. He only won New York with under 51% of the vote, worth 45 electoral college votes, meaning if New York had flipped he would have won 399 electoral college votes and still won the election.

In 1924 Calvin Coolidge won 382 electoral college votes. He won less than 51% of the vote in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Maryland, Nebraska, Idaho, North Dakota, New Mexico, Kentucky, Utah, West Virginia, Missouri, and South Dakota worth 86 electoral college votes. If those state flipped he would have won 296 electoral votes and still won the Presidency.

In 1920 Warren Harding won 404 electoral college votes. He only won Oklahoma with less than 51% of the vote, which means if Oklahoma had flipped he would have still won the Presidency with 394 electoral college votes.

In 1916 Woodrow Wilson won 277 electoral college votes. He won California, North Dakota, Washington, New Hampshire, Kansas, New Mexico, Missouri, and Oklahoma with under 51% of the vote, worth 70 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped Charles Evans Hughes would have been elected.

1912 was a weird election, to say the least, because it was the last time where a former President ran as a third party candidate. It was also the last time where a third party came in second place for both electoral college votes and the popular vote. It is also the last time a socialist candidate got over 5% of the vote. If we had used ranked voting, it is reasonable to assume that Theodore Roosevelt would have won a third term. I’m going to leave this election out because its complicated and deserves its own post.

In 1908 William Howard Taft won 321 electoral college votes. Taft won fewer than 51% of the vote in Montana, Indiana, Missouri, and Maryland, worth a combined 38 electoral college votes. If those 4 states had flipped he would have won 283 electoral college votes and still won the election.

In 1904 Theodore Roosevelt won 336 electoral college votes. He won less than 50% of the vote in Missouri, worth 18 electoral college votes, which would have given him 318 electoral college votes and he still would have won the election. I’m ignoring the 7 faithless electors in Maryland.

In 1900 William McKinley won 292 electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in Nebraska, Utah, and Indiana. These states were worth 26 votes, which would have given him 266 electoral college votes. 224 electoral college votes were needed, and he still would have won the election.

In 1896 William McKinley won 271 electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in Kentucky, California, Oregon, and Indiana. These states were worth 39 electoral college votes. If those 4 states flipped he would have won 232 electoral college votes, more than the 224 electoral college votes needed in order to win, so he still would have won.

In 1892 Grover Cleveland won 277 electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, West Virginia, New York, Illinois, Michigan 10, Michigan 5, Wisconsin, Michigan 2, Indiana, North Carolina, Michigan 7, and California. These states were worth a combined 152 electoral college votes, he would have won 125 electoral college votes, and Benjamin Harrison would have won his reelection.

In 1888 Benjamin Harrison won 233 electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in Indiana, New York, Ohio, Illinois, California, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, worth a combined 132 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped he would have won 99 electoral college votes and Grover Cleveland would have won his reelection.

In 1884 Grover Cleveland won 219 electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Indiana, and West Virginia, worth a combined 72 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped James Blaine would have won.

In 1880 James Garfield won 214 electoral college votes, he needed 185 in order to win. He won Indiana, New York, Oregon, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania with under 51% of the vote. Those states were worth 88 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped Winfield Hancock would have become President.

In 1876 Rutherford Hayes won with 185 electoral college votes, the minimum he needed in order to win. 1876 was the closest election in American history in terms of electoral college votes. He won under 51% of the vote in Illinois, Ohio, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, California, Oregon, and Florida. If any of those states had flipped Samuel Tilden would have become President.

1872 was a very unusual election because Horace Greeley died on November 29, 1872, before the Electoral College met. Grant would have likely won no matter what.

In 1868 Ulysses S. Grant won 214 electoral votes, he needed 148. He only won California with under 51% of the vote, and California was only worth 5 electoral college votes that year, so he won in a landslide.

In 1864 Abraham Lincoln won 212 electoral college votes, he needed 118. He only won New York with under 51% of the vote, worth 33 electoral college votes. He won in a landslide.

In 1860 Abraham Lincoln won 180 electoral college votes, he needed 152 in order to win. He won with under 51% of the vote in California, Oregon, New Jersey, and Illinois, worth a combined 22 electoral college votes. If those 4 states had flipped Lincoln would have won 158 electoral college votes and still won the election. 1860 is unusual in how President Lincoln won under 50% of the popular vote, yet would have still won the electoral college in our scenario.

In 1856 James Buchanan won 174 electoral college votes, he needed 149 in order to win. He won under 51% of the vote in Illinois, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, worth 62 electoral college votes. If Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Indiana had voted for John C. Fremont and California had voted for Millard Fillmore, (the runner ups in those states) Buchanan would have had 108 electoral college votes, Fremont would have had 172 electoral college votes, and Millard Fillmore would have had 12 electoral college votes, giving Fremont the Presidency.

In 1852 Franklin Pierce won 254 electoral college votes, he needed 149 in order to win. He won less than 51% of the vote in Ohio, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan, and Maine. Those states were worth 95 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped Franklin Pierce would have won 159 electoral college votes and still won.

In 1848 Zachary Taylor won 163 electoral college votes, he needed 146 in order to win. He won with less than 51% of the vote in Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, worth a combined 86 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped to their runner up, 44 votes would have gone to Martin Van Buren, and 6 votes would have gone to Lewis Cass. Taylor would have had 77 electoral college votes, Cass would have had 133 electoral college votes, and Martin Van Buren would have had 44 electoral college votes. No candidate would have had a majority in the electoral college and the election would have been determined by Congress following the rules in the 12th amendment.

In 1844 James K. Polk won 170 electoral college votes, he needed 138 in order to win. He won with less than 51% of the vote in New York, Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, worth 79 electoral college votes. If those states had flipped Henry Clay would have been President.

In 1840 William Henry Harrison won 234 electoral college votes, he needed 148 in order to win. He won with under 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Maine which were worth 40 electoral college votes, and if those states had flipped he still would have won.

In 1836 Martin Van Buren won 170 electoral college votes, he needed 148 in order to win. He won with under 51% of the vote in Connecticut, worth 8 electoral college votes. He would have won if Connecticut had flipped.

In 1832 Andrew Jackson won 219 electoral college votes, he needed 145 in order to win. He won under 51% of the vote in New Jersey, worth 8 votes, so he would have won no matter what.

In 1828 Andrew Jackson won over 51% of the vote in every state he won, so he won in a solid landslide.

I’m not going to look at elections before 1828 for two reasons.

• 1824 was a batshit crazy election (technically)
• Very few states had a popular vote before 1828.

The years which would have flipped if the states which voted for the President elect with under 51% of the votes had flipped to the major opponent were:

• 2020
• 2016
• 2004
• 2000
• 1996
• 1992
• 1980
• 1976
• 1968
• 1960
• 1948
• 1916
• 1892
• 1888
• 1884
• 1880
• 1876
• 1856
• 1848 (no one would have won over 50% of the Electoral College)
• 1844

The only Presidents which would have still won the election if their opponent picked up all states he won less than 51% of the vote in, won their party’s nomination after being President (if possible, if they run), and won every election he ran as the Presidential candidate in the general election, for are:

• Barack Hussein Obama Jr.
• Lyndon Baines Johnson
• Dwight David Eisenhower
• Franklin Delano Roosevelt
• Calvin Coolidge
• William McKinley
• Ulysses S. Grant
• Abraham Lincoln
• Andrew Jackson

 

Damn, that’s a lot of data and a long story. What do I take away from this story?

• Both parties can win elections.
• Incumbency advantages are very real.
• Most elections in recent history have been close.
• The only President to win with enough support that if he lost 1% support in every state he still would have won in the last 30 years was President Obama.
• While we often paint the election as relying on one or two states, this is usually not the case.
• Only 4 Presidents have won with enough support in enough states to win with only states they won with over 51% of t he vote in over the last century. Most Presidents have had technically close elections.