The US Senate is a dire tossup this year, and the House will almost certainly go Red, but this is the last time the Democrats can pick up enough Governorships to have a majority of Governorships in the country and they will also have veto power over redistricting plans for Congress and their State Legislatures for over 10 years from now. This is where money and votes can make a gigantic impact this year, the impact of which will be directly felt until 2030. Simply being able to veto gerrymandered maps will make a gigantic impact for a generation to come. This November will determine the outcome.
There are no fewer than 8 easy Governor pickups for @TheDemocrats this November. This is our last chance to get a majority of Governorships until 2022. Go #VoteBlue2018! Governors have the ability to veto unfair redistricting maps. Get Democratic Governors this year, get the House of Representatives and numerous legislature pickups in 2022. Otherwise, we might not get control of Congress again in the next decade. The two most important easy pickups this year are in Michigan and Wisconsin, so we can pick up a bunch of seats there. Florida and Ohio are both toss ups, which together send 43 Representatives to Congress, almost 10% of the House. Between Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio, the winners of these blue/purple states will sign off on the redistricting of 65 seats of the House of Representatives, 15% of Congress. #VoteBlue2018
The 8 states Democrats can fairly easily get the Governor’s mansion are Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
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| Potential New Democratic Governorships |
If Democrats win this year in these 8 states, we will have a very good shot at taking the House of Representatives and several state legislatures in 2022. The Democratic Party is likely to take a majority of the vote in every House election until the Republican Party becomes less extreme, given how the Democrats have a stance far more in line with most Americans on almost every issue.
We will break Republican Trifectas in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and if we get lucky and win both toss ups we will break the trifectas of both Ohio and Florida. We will gain trifectas in Illinois by gaining the governorship.
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| Broken Republican Trifectas |
We must pick up two seats in the Colorado State Senate this year in order to gain a Trifecta.
We need to pick up one seat in the Connecticut State Senate in order to gain a Trifecta.
We need 6 seats in the Iowa State Senate and 10 seats in the Iowa State House of Representatives, along with the governorship to make a Trifecta. It will not be easy, but it is doable.
We could take a trifecta in Maine by flipping one seat in the State Senate. Gaining the governorship as well (which is likely) will make a Democratic Trifecta.
We can gain the Minnesota Senate this year by taking one seat. The House will be more difficult where there is a 77-56 Republican lead.
We can gain a Trifecta in Nevada by maintaining both houses and taking the Governorship.
New Hampshire will need 4 pickups out of a 24 seat Senate, and 43 pickups in the House out of a 400 seat chamber.
Gaining the governorship of New Mexico will deliver a Trifecta.
We need to gain the Senate in New York, only one seat flipping will deliver a Democratic Trifecta.
Maintaining the Governorship of Pennsylvania will allow us to gain a trifecta in 2022 by having fair legislative maps.
Republicans have a 2 seat majority in both chambers in Virginia. We could make a Democratic Trifecta in Virginia this year.
We MUST maintain our majority in Washington State.
We could potentially gain the Wisconsin State Senate, we only need to pick up two more seats to accomplish that. Gaining the Governorship as well will mean that in 2022 we only need to pick up the State Assembly to gain a Trifecta.
If we succeed in this, the map of trifectas in 2019 will look like this, dark colors are currently held, light colors are pickups from gaining governorships and legislatures.
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| Potential new Trifecta Map |
These 10 new Democratic Trifectas and 2 new Republican Trifectas which are fairly easy to get will have a direct effect on 90 House districts for the Democrats and 19 House districts for the Republicans. 74 House Districts will be put in a position where they will now need to have some agreement between both parties as opposed to one party unilaterally choosing the boundaries for legislative and congressional districts, which usually ends up hurting the other party significantly. These numbers will of course change slightly because of the new 2020 Census, but they won’t change too significantly.
Takeaway message:
The big message of this post is that yes, the Federal Government is going to stay in the hands of the Republicans. We might be able to barely break the Trifecta by getting a one seat majority in the Senate, but this is going to be very difficult. The big battle this year is in the states. Democrats can make huge substantial gains in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The biggest state we must defend is Washington State, because the trifecta hangs by a thread. The outcomes of the elections in these 16 states will have massive implications for the outcomes of elections for the next 20 years. This is where people who have money to donate need to be putting their money, this is where people who wish to volunteer need to put their time. This is a huge battle this year for the soul of America, let’s hope that the side of equality, opportunity, and freedom wins.
On top of this, there are elections going on in cities and counties across America right now. Vote in your local elections, because that is where great leaders begin.
Remember also that in 1994 a 33 year old man was elected to the State Senate in the South Side of Chicago. he served for 10 years and then became the Senator for Illinois in the 2004 election (his second run for Congress), and in 2008 Barack Obama became the President of the United States.
Your State legislature is the major source for Federal politicians, and your governor and other state executives ultimately determines how the elections of your state are run (along with the Federal Courts, but those cases can be delayed by 5 years or more.). They determine if polling places are easy to get to, if you have mail in voting, how long polls are open, whether your state uses ranked voting or first past the post, and the outcomes of these elections determine massively important issues regarding our health care, education, infrastructure, net neutrality, access to natural areas, environment, and many many more issues. All of this is at stake in November. Every part of this matters.
Remember to vote.