My theory is the partisan control of the governorship and Senate seat is a good predictor for how people will vote in a Presidential election.
The higher the prediction, the more likely the state will vote for a Democrat. All presidential elections since 1830 are included.
A state gets one point if the Governor or a Senator from the last 6 years has been a Democrat.
| prediction | presidential party | President Democrat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.0 | LR | 0 |
| 2 | 0.0 | LR | 0 |
| 23 | 4.0 | LR | 0 |
| 13 | 2.0 | LR | 0 |
| 19 | 3.0 | LR | 0 |
| 15 | 2.0 | SR | 1 |
| 28 | 5.0 | SR | 1 |
| 4 | 0.0 | PR | 1 |
| 25 | 4.0 | SR | 1 |
| 6 | 0.0 | SP | 1 |
| 21 | 3.0 | SR | 1 |
| 11 | 2.0 | AI | 1 |
| 18 | 3.0 | I | 2 |
| 3 | 0.0 | PO | 2 |
| 27 | 5.0 | Republican | 2 |
| 9 | 1.0 | PO | 2 |
| 16 | 3.0 | AI | 4 |
| 29 | 6.0 | Democrat | 4 |
| 0 | 0.0 | BM | 6 |
| 24 | 4.0 | Republican | 10 |
| 26 | 5.0 | Democrat | 16 |
| 22 | 4.0 | Democrat | 62 |
| 1 | 0.0 | Democrat | 70 |
| 20 | 3.0 | Republican | 105 |
| 7 | 1.0 | Democrat | 152 |
| 14 | 2.0 | Republican | 196 |
| 12 | 2.0 | Democrat | 207 |
| 10 | 1.0 | Republican | 261 |
| 17 | 3.0 | Democrat | 281 |
| 5 | 0.0 | Republican | 362 |
There is a 2/3 chance that a state with two Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor will vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.
This means Michigan and Pennsylvania by this model are predicted to vote for Harris this year.
Wisconsin and Arizona are lean Democratic. That gives Harris enough to win the presidential election.
Georgia is also predicted to swing Democratic.
This is the map where states with both senators and one governor are shaded for the party they clearly prefer.
Harris will win Virginia, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
That gives her 271 votes in the Electoral College and the presidency.
I think Kamala Harris will win the Presidency on Tuesday.
Devil’s Advocate
If we take Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin as swing states and say that each of them has a 50/50 chance of voting for Harris or Trump, Trump needs to win all four of them in order to win the Presidency. Otherwise he will lose the election. That is a 1/16 chance Trump wins on Tuesday.
I wouldn’t bet on it. I think many people who bet for Harris in the betting pools will make good money on Tuesday.