Watch this video first. This is a response.
I agree with his analysis. Shirvan is correct that these four states have many conflicts. This has a lot to do with my previous post, where I discussed world superpowers. After looking at GDP, GDP per capita, military expenditure, total area, and population, I found that the United States is indeed the most powerful country in the world. Canada, by my rough calculation, is the second most powerful country in the world, followed by China in third place.
China and Russia are the most powerful authoritarian regimes, followed by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran. All these countries are part of the “BRICS” group except Venezuela, a suspended member of the Rio Pact.
I think of American alliances in three tiers:
- The first tier comprises members of ANZUS, NATO, and the Rio Pact, our three extant multilateral and voluntary mutual protection pacts.
- Our second tier comprises four countries with unilateral protection pacts: Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand.
- Our third tier comprises major non-NATO allies, such as Afghanistan, Israel, and Egypt. They do not have mutual protection pacts with the United States.
Our first tier comprises 18% of the world’s population but 54% of the world’s economy and 59% of the world’s military expenditure.
Our second tier is comprised of countries that were members of SEATO. Adding these four allies brings our total to 23% of the world’s population, 64% of the world’s economy, and 63% of the world’s military expenditures.
If a country was to attack the United States directly, they would be faced with all of these countries at the same time. Certain doom for any country stupid enough to attack us. It is also extremely likely that if a Rio Pact member was attacked, however unlikely, that many NATO members besides the United States would respond, especially Canada which would certainly respond.
A military invasion anywhere in the Americas is a fantastically stupid idea.
Invading basically any democratic country ranked by the Economist with a GDP per capita over $10,o00 is a stupid idea because of the seven which do not have a mutual protection pact with the United States, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus, and Malta are part of the European Union, the European Union surrounds Switzerland, leaving only Israel and Singapore as the only rich democratic countries which are not either a member of or surrounded by a mutual protection pact made of democracies. If they have not already, Mauritius, Malaysia, and Mexico will join this list soon.
So when it comes to this “New World Order” which has been formed to oppose the “American Empire” all four of them are authoritarian regimes. Their GDP per capita is quite low in nominal terms. The difference between nominal and PPP values for Russia is extreme, which is a sign of extreme currency manipulation. China has the same problem to a smaller extent, with PPP values twice that of nominal. This increases the cost of imports, increases the cost of living for the middle class, hinders further economic growth, and limits China’s power. The same problem exists in Iran. North Korea’s economy is so closed we don’t even have accurate GDP figures for it. The only country in Asia which could have a worse economy than North Korea is Afghanistan, which is quickly falling to Russian influence with the Taliban regime.
According to SIPRI, these four countries combined comprise only 17% of global military expenditures, less than the United States’s, which stands at 40%.
If the United States and our allies were more willing to bring more developing countries under our wing as allies, we could quickly prevent their military expansion.
Ukraine is a test of America’s resolve. Russia has been very clear that if we don’t defend Ukraine, they will continue to attack more countries that do not have mutual protection pacts with the United States. Georgia is next on the list.
After Georgia, they will try to colonize a wide array of countries using various economic and military means, moving towards regime change. India’s elections threaten its continued membership in BRICS, and if they elect a more liberal government that fights against corruption, don’t expect China and Russia to take that lightly. Most of these countries are in Africa. Once India goes through a major reform period dealing with corruption, I predict it will leave BRICS. India is a natural ally of the United States and Europe with our shared democratic values. It’s only a matter of time. China and Russia are doing everything in their power to prevent this at all cost.
When India elects a reformer, whenever that is, the United States and Europe will prioritize quickly bringing India into our alliances.
Taiwan is obviously the first target of the Communist People’s Republic of China. This has been their policy since their founding. If Ukraine loses, expect a full-blown invasion of Taiwan.
The Russian military uses extreme levels of propaganda to convince Americans that they are strong and scary, but in reality, they are actually quite weak relative to the United States when you look at the data.
If we bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, there will be no likely targets left in Europe. Georgia and Ukraine can then focus on democratic reforms to bring themselves in line with the EU acquis.
Forming a military alliance with ASEAN would immediately deter China from military incursions into that region.
Mexico is always welcome to rejoin the Rio Pact. The isolation of the Americas means an invasion of any American country is unlikely, but Mexico rejoining our alliance will be meaningful. I believe this will happen someday.
Sri Lanka is the only other Asian democracy left with a population of over 5 million, and it does not have a mutual protection pact with the United States. When they reach out to us, we must respond in kind. It’s only a matter of time.
The remaining democracies, which have a population of over 10 million and do not have an alliance with the United States, are located in Africa. Historically, there is a pattern that as countries develop, their economies grow, corruption declines, their government becomes more democratic, and then they reach out to the United States for deeper relations. The only exceptions tend to be petrostates, like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Georgia and Ukraine did this, and we rebuffed them. When we do this, it slows democratization globally and is a gift to tyrants everywhere. We need to reach back to Georgia and Ukraine, defend their sovereignty, and bring them into NATO.
We must never respond to an olive branch with a flame thrower as we did when Ukraine and Georgia applied to join NATO. That has been a massive failure of foreign policy. We have adopted an adversarial stance against China, especially in our speeches over the last 8 years, but until we respond with as much warmth and welcome to our new friends as we respond to China’s treatment of the Uyghurs with hostility, it will only be an act. We could and should have responded to their rejection of NATO by offering a unilateral mutual protection pact. Bush and Obama did not do that, which was our failure as a country.
We can never do that again. We must quickly and deliberately respond to the warming of relations from democracies that respect their human rights by deepening our relations, starting with military relations and leading with economic relations to help them develop further and grow into free and stable societies people want to live in.
That is how we build a more peaceful world.