I first wrote a game theory tree for Ukraine in January 2022, when I drew out a plan for why Russia would back down if the West responded with a military threat and there wouldn’t be a war.
The foreign policy team (Blinken & Sullivan) at the White House clearly does not understand game theory; we did not act appropriately using the available information, and two and a half years later, the war is still ongoing. They failed.
At this point, we are at a critical juncture for Ukraine where people are talking about how there should be a peace treaty now, having a stalemate, and saving lives, and this is the peaceful option.
Game theory and history demonstrate why a stalemate now, as Ukraine has made some progress over the summer, is the best option for the military-industrial complex and Russia in the long term and the worst possible deal for Ukraine.
We have been in all but one of these situations before. Follow down the tree and see where each path leads. The decision tree makes the only realistic option very obvious.
The only option is to support Ukraine fully; if they win, they will regain all of their territory, be allowed into NATO, and then there can be peace.
There is no other path to peace. The only realistic scenarios we have not been in so far are Russia’s refusal of a peace treaty and Ukraine’s membership in NATO. I do not believe Russia will refuse a peace treaty; we know the other three options do not work.
The only option that leads to peace is supporting Ukraine with enough weapons to lead them to a swift victory and then immediate accession to NATO.
There is no other way.
I have labeled the three options we have already done over the years.
- 1921: Ukraine was fully absorbed into Russia, followed by a genocide ten years later.
- 1994: Independent and neutral Ukraine as part of the Minsk Accords.
- 2014: Stalemate at the line of control. It is unstable and does not solve the problem.
Russia has never demonstrated the willingness to support a treaty voluntarily where Ukraine is free and independent.
The only stable endpoints are a total military victory for Ukraine or a Holodomor. A Holodomor is not an option, leaving only a total military victory for Ukraine followed by NATO membership as the only desirable and possible endpoint.
Slava Ukraine.