The U.S. will very likely fight a 3-front war against Russia, China and Iran, Palantir’s Alex Karp says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-will-very-likely-fight-a-3-front-war-against-russia-china-and-iran-palantir-s-alex-karp-says/ar-AA1oYglr
Perhaps… but China is watching what is happening to Russia’s economy under sanctions, and China is far more trade-dependent than Russia.
An invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the Communist Party.

The invasion of Taiwan is overseas, while the invasion of Ukraine is overland, which means that defending Taiwan will be far easier than Ukraine. Missiles are significantly cheaper than boats and plains. China will sustain significant economic damage, worsening the quality of life for all Chinese citizens, and it will be very difficult for them to invade Taiwan. If they succeeded in the invasion, the Taiwanese would destroy the semiconductor chip factories, destroying most of Taiwan’s economic value and significantly harming mainland China’s economy. The Chinese government has made a deal with their people that as long as they keep the quality of life increasing, the people of China will tolerate human rights abuses. Between sanctions and the loss of semiconductors, this would break the deal the Chinese government had made with their people, and dissent would grow, threatening the rule of the Communist Party.

Most of China’s neighbors are friendly to them. These are Afghanistan, Pakistan, Vietnam, Laos, Russia, Kazakhstan, North Korea, and Burma.

A few of China’s neighbors are small in population and have few resources: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Nepal, Mongolia, and Bhutan. These would still find sanctions destroying their economy, but the difference in Chinese GDP would be negligible.

This leaves only one neighbor of China that could have economic value if they invaded, and that country is India. India has decided to play both sides and is funding Russia’s war effort while voting against Russia in the UN, so if they are invaded, they will fight alone. Given India’s insistence on BRICS nonsense and Russia’s economic support, the United States will not, and should not, get involved if India is invaded.

War with China is just wishful thinking from the military-industrial complex.

When it comes to Russia we are currently at war with Russia. Russia is massively depleting its manpower and losing the war. Russia will not have the manpower to launch another invasion like we are seeing in Ukraine after the war is over and I doubt Putin will be alive after Ukraine wins.

As I have written before, there is no winning solution for Russia in this war. If Ukraine stays independent, Russia will lose. If Russia somehow succeeded in winning and Ukraine was absolved into the Russian Empire, it would be a rebellious province, and Russia would still have sanctions from NATO. Over half the world’s military spending is from NATO countries. 49% of the world’s GDP is also in NATO countries. Even if Russia and China were united against NATO, I think Georgia will apply for NATO membership after their next election, and they will be admitted. All that needs to happen is the reunification of Georgia which is likely as Russia is weaker than ever before.

Russia doesn’t have any other good targets for invasion, similar to China. Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are all NATO members. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and North Korea are already allied. Georgia will be in NATO soon. Azerbaijan is the one country Russia might invade but they are probably not worth it. Russia and China are allies. There is no material benefit to invading Mongolia. I do not expect Russia to launch another war after they lose in Ukraine for a very long time.

 

The final country on the list is Iran. The obvious target is Israel, and Israel is not part of any mutual protection pact. The United States should not get involved. Again, this falls under the wishful thinking category. Netanyahu has been chomping at the bit for a war with Iran since he entered politics. It will happen when fetch happens, and fetch will never happen.

Barring significant political changes, I do not see any other large international wars in the future between countries large enough to have the war spiral beyond a regional war.