First and foremost, every Presidential election is unique.
You cannot accurately predict an election’s outcome by the candidates’ offices in the race.
No matter who Harris picks as her running mate, this election will be unique because it is the only election in which an incumbent Vice President has run against a former President. This is funny because 2020 was the first election in history where a former Vice President ran against an incumbent President.
However, there are some trends that are interesting to observe.
When analyzing the offices held by the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates from the two major parties in every election since 1828, every combination is unique.
The most common combination for a winning ticket is the sitting President and sitting Vice President.
The most common losing ticket is two Senators, the second most common winning ticket.
Most combinations are rare enough the results are not statistically significant. But it is clear that incumbent President/Vice President tickets win 71% of the time.
Tickets with a Senator as the Presidential candidate and a Representative as the Vice Presidential candidate have been run 5 times and lost every time. It’s the most common losing ticket, and a ticket like this has not been sold since 1964. The last ticket of this shape was in 1848.
All of this is to say that while there is clearly an incumbency advantage, any other office held by candidates has little to no impact on the election.
Candidate quality and the record of the incumbent administration are the best predictors of whether a candidate will win or lose the election.
Arm Ukraine and force a peaceful resolution to Palestine to win the Presidency.