https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
This article clearly demonstrates that the red lines Russia has set have been of little to no value.
But what we have found is that when NATO has not made it clear something is off limits, Russia consistently violates it.
In response to us not letting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO in 2008, Georgia was invaded less than 6 months later.
In response to Euromaidan and no clear defense from NATO, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Biden promised that America would focus on how our domestic economy is falling apart in 2021. 6 months later, Russia further invaded Ukraine.
If you want to understand the impact of crossing a “red line” Russia makes, you have to look into game theory.
If Russia invades a sovereign country and the consequences are larger than the benefits to Russia, they will not engage in such behavior.
Biden’s speeches have put America’s willingness to defend non-NATO members into question, and the consequence is the invasion of Ukraine.
In reality, red line or not, you have to look through each of these declarations through a game theory lens.
Whenever you analyze Russian military strategy through game theory, it always ends with the same result. If Russia engages fully with NATO then the Russian military will be destroyed. This is the outcome of every NATO-Russia engagement if NATO puts in its full power. NATO has over 10x the number of people Ukraine has. Russia can’t even take over Ukraine. Russia wouldn’t stand a week.
Ukraine has already hit targets inside Russian territory. Russia has not fulfilled its “red line” pledge. It is so obvious that a nuclear attack would provoke a severe military response against Russia, and they so clearly do not have the military capabilities to stop a NATO invasion.
There has been a new front opened in Kharkiv by the Russians in light of this prohibition of Ukraine attacking Russian troops before they enter Ukraine.
David Cameron has even said Ukraine has the right to attack Russian troops before they kill and kidnap Ukrainians. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-calls-cameron-statement-uk-arms-ukraine-direct-escalation-2024-05-03/
So, according to accelerationists, this is why a nuclear warhead struck London yesterday.
Checkmate liberals.
Except… that didn’t happen.
I have family in London, Munich, and Helsinki, NATO/EU targets that would be hit if Russia’s words carried any weight.
I am deeply invested, just like the government of Estonia, in the path which is least likely to have Russia attack NATO directly.
That path is to support Ukraine all the way to victory.
Finland has a long-range air defense system. https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/press_release_archive/2023/new_long-range_air_defence_system_for_the_finnish_defence_forces.13506.news
Poland has a missile defense system. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/
The eastern flank of NATO is very well defended, and we have crossed many red lines Russia has set. They know that if they attack NATO with a nuclear warhead, it will not reach its intended target. But it would guarantee the end of Russia as an independent state.
Red lines are political boogiemen. What really matters is the outcome from game theory. Russia does not have the population, military, or economy even to conquer Ukraine, let alone survive a war with NATO.
We must remove the ban on Ukrainians using weapons against the Russian military while the Russians are still in Russian territory.
The same thing applies to Russian red lines, which work with Israeli red lines. “This Administration never supports anything we do until we do it,” and this is the Biden manifesto. There is no reason to believe a thing this administration says. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinion-the-israelis-prove-biden-wrong-on-rafah/ar-BB1mSdZh?cvid=e1179e51787147a69ac08ddcb022f67b&ei=46
Crossing this red line will, of course, not change America’s long-standing 44-year-long policy of supporting Zionism.
The evidence is clear that red lines are not worth anything in politics in all of these example I have laid out.
Game theory is all that matters.
Israel will not seek a long-standing solution to Palestine until they are forced to by the United States.
What matters in the Russo-Ukrainian war is that NATO must give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend its people and let them attack the Russian military before they are in Ukrainian territory. This saves lives. It will not lead to nuclear war.
A single nuclear blast against anywhere in NATO would guarantee the end of Russia as an independent state. Russia knows this. We also have a high probability of being able to destroy their missiles and planes before they even reach NATO territory.
We need to have a plan, and we likely do, on how to properly respond to Russia if they attack a NATO member state. Estonia might be small, but if we let them shoot a single bullet into Estonia, that will either be the end of NATO, and we will be destroyed one by one, or a NATO vs Russia war, which would be a resounding victory for NATO.
Again, they can’t even defeat Ukraine.
When you analyze the situation through game theory instead of “red line” pseudoscience, you discover the only way to avoid a Russian attack on the United States is to support Ukraine to the point where every Russian soldier is either imprisoned, dead, or in Russia.
Every other path in the game theory tree leads to a NATO-Russia war.
There is no path to victory for Russia.