You can find current polling results and projections at https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/, which I am using for this post.
| Party | 2019 seats | 2024 projected seats | 2024 projected % | Three party coalition | Three party percent% |
| LEFT | 41 | 45 | 6.25% | ||
| EFA | 74 | 49 | 6.81% | ||
| S&D | 154 | 140 | 19.44% | 234 | 32.50% |
| RE | 108 | 82 | 11.39% | 271 | 37.64% |
| EPP | 182 | 181 | 25.14% | 403 | 55.97% |
| ECR | 62 | 83 | 11.53% | 346 | 48.06% |
| ID | 73 | 92 | 12.78% | 356 | 49.44% |
| Unaffiliated | 0 | 4 | 0.56% | 179 | 24.86% |
| NI | 57 | 44 | 6.11% | 140 | 19.44% |
As we can see, no single party is projected to have enough seats to create a majority coalition.
First and foremost, there is no reality where RE or S&D will form a coalition with ECR; they are opposed on basically every issue, even the fundamentals of their views on the European Union.
The Non-Inscrits and Unaffiliated are not groups with fundamental ideologies either so that we can remove them from our table of potential coalitions.
So, we can simplify our table of potential coalitions:
| Party | 2019 seats | 2024 projected seats | 2024 projected % | Three party coalition | Three party percent% |
| LEFT | 41 | 45 | 6.25% | ||
| EFA | 74 | 49 | 6.81% | ||
| S&D | 154 | 140 | 19.44% | 234 | 32.50% |
| RE | 108 | 82 | 11.39% | 271 | 37.64% |
| EPP | 182 | 181 | 25.14% | 403 | 55.97% |
| ECR | 62 | 83 | 11.53% | 346 | NAN |
| ID | 73 | 92 | 12.78% | 356 | 49.44% |
| Unaffiliated | 0 | 4 | 0.56% | 179 | NAN |
| NI | 57 | 44 | 6.11% | 140 | NAN |
We can see only one possible coalition in the European parliament: the existing traffic light coalition of EPP, S&D, and RE.
There will not be a fundamental shift in European politics, assuming current polling holds.
Ignore ridiculous articles like this from Foreign Policy. Their math doesn’t add up.