Stidmatt

Banks love cash-only businesses. Cash-only businesses are their profit center. Credit cards have very small profits in comparison.

I bet you have been told differently. Let me explain…

I’m walking around Brooklyn, and there are two restaurants of comparable quality competing with each other. One of them has an ATM which will charge me up to 30% to access my cash from my checking account, from experience. Another one does not. The one with the ATM will not take my credit card, the one without the ATM will take my credit card and pay somewhere around 2-4% in order to process my payment.

I withdrew only $20 from the ATM restaurant and paid a $3 fee to access my money with my debit card. The meal for my friend and I cost just under $20, so I don’t buy a drink worth $2-3. They saved $0.40 in transaction fees and lost $3 in revenue they would have made if they accepted my card. The customer at the restaurant with the credit card processor bought drinks, and their bill was around $25 minus $0.42 to the credit card processor, so $24.58 in revenue; the ATM restaurant only made $18, and the bank made $3.

Banks make more money from cash-only businesses. Local retailers make less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OceYCEexDqQ

Often, I will hear the call that lower-income users are subsidizing higher-income households who use credit cards. While this is technically true, we have to remember that cash is not free. If a business decides to go cash-only, it is far easier for an employee to siphon off a dollar here or there from cash in the till than it is for someone to siphon off money from credit card fees. While credit card fees are 2-4%, those are predictable. It’s hard to predict exactly how much cash will be siphoned off from the till by employees, and in a big store it is even harder to track who is stealing the cash. The average dishonest retailer employee costs their employer $1551.66, according to https://explodingtopics.com/blog/employee-theft-stats.

Ultimately the cost of cash-only costs businesses the same amount in theft as they would pay in credit card processing fees. The main benefit to the credit card is that people generally have hundreds if not thousands of dollars in credit available when using a credit card, while if you are cash only your customer is limited to the amount of money in their wallet, typically $40 or less. Over that limit, and your customer will have to hold back spending, reducing your company’s profit.

In summary:

• Credit card fees are not significantly different from the percentage businesses would lose from employee theft of cash.
• Cash-only customers are limited to the cash in their wallet, which is much lower than the credit available on their credit card.

This is the real reason why most businesses choose to take credit card purchases.

Every relationship, romantic or otherwise, has an assumed base level of consent. There is always going to be some level of interaction which doesn’t require constant asking in order for the relationship to work. i know we are in an era where we are somehow expected to ask verbal permission every time for everything, but that is unrealistic.
For people who are dating, sleeping together is usually an assumed level of consent. If I’m dating someone and they are already asleep and we usually share a bed, it is not necessary for me to wake them up in order to sleep in our shared bed.
Some couples have a baseline consent of cuddling together. One of my best friends will lay her head on me without asking permission, and that’s somewhere around our baseline consent level. Some people would want verbal consent every time, but we are both comfortable with that without needing to ask 30 times a day. After a while, it evolves to be an assumed level of consent.
The problem with what people are expected to do now breeds an unstable and unrealistic relationship model. It is up to each couple to determine where that line is. I cannot say that a line which has worked in one of my relationships is the line which every couple should use. It’s both unrealistic and patriarchal.
The way we can determine whether someone is consistently violating another’s consent boundary is if there is a consistent and egregious moving past the established line for that relationship without verbal consent. It’s more complicated, but its also more realistic.
There also needs to be a statute of limitations for most transgressions, because we cannot live our lives worrying if a relationship we had 20 years ago will someday come up and claim things which might not be true. It’s complicated. We need to stop pretending this is a simple issue.

Consent can of course always be rescinded, but I think we need to seriously think about how to design a reasonable way of looking at consent and I do not think we have reached it yet. There is more work to be done.

German coalition collapses, and an election will be held in February.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-scholz-loses-confidence-vote/live-71063891

To be clear, I support border controls between US states when the number of illegal guns crossing the border puts the lives of citizens at risk.

However, the current Schengen border controls do not make anyone in the Schengen area safer.

The number of migrants entering the European Union has indeed increased since 2021.

It is also true that Syria was the largest source of refugees entering the European Union.

The solution to refugees seeking asylum in the European Union, the United States, and other countries is not to ban asylum-seeking. International law regarding asylum status exists because Jews fleeing the Holocaust were denied entry to the United States because there was no legal framework. Refugee status is an essential part of international human rights law.

The solution to reducing the number of refugees is to help solve the crises that cause refugees to seek asylum in the first place.

The top two sources of refugees to the European Union in 2023 were from Syria and Afghanistan. The way to prevent Syrian refugees is to help Syria develop strong democratic institutions that protect the rights of all people. Then there won’t be refugees from Syria. It’s the same problem in Afghanistan. The reason for so many refugees from Afghanistan is that the Taliban is a despotic regime.

Congratulations, you just reduced the number of asylum seekers in Europe by 20%, and no human rights violations required!

The way to deal with refugees without internal border controls or country shopping is to follow existing laws. Under European Union law, asylum seekers must seek status in the first European Union member state they enter.

This means that if a refugee enters the European Union in Bulgaria at the Turkish border and then travel to Germany in order to seek refugee status, they technically aren’t supposed to do that and Germany can deny them refugee status on those grounds, requiring them to go back to Bulgaria and seek asylum status there.

The European Union is also going to adopt a unified asylum procedure starting in 2026, so international law will be respected without putting a heavy burden on one member state or another. I believe this is the right approach.

Ultimately, blocking asylum seekers from moving across internal borders will be negated as a valid reason for temporary border controls in the European Union.

On top of this, refugee status is not a valid way to seek permanent immigration to another country. Refugee status comes with a near automatic approval process for valid applicants while the crisis and reason for refugee status are valid. Once the reason for asylum has ended, countries have the right to request the refugee return home. It is not like immigration, however, where approval is not a guarantee or a right, but likewise, the revocation of citizenship is much more difficult. I think this is a valid approach.

The second most common reason for internal borders is fear of terrorism. The rule for this should be they can only be implemented after a terrorist attack from someone who entered the European Union through another member state and then crossed an internal border to commit a terrorist attack. I think this is a reasonable restriction. There has only been one terrorist attack in the European Union this year, and it was done by a 25-year-old Afghan refugee who had been in the country since 2013—literally a one-in-a-million chance.

In summary, I think internal borders are being misused by European governments, particularly the Scholz administration right now, for political gain, specifically to appease impossible-to-satisfy far-right political elements.

If we wanted to end refugees moving to Europe, it would be better to arm Ukraine, establish a free democracy in Syria, and topple the Taliban.

That is the only realistic way to reduce the number of refugees moving to Europe.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/democracy-and-human-rights/fundamental-rights-in-the-eu/guaranteeing-the-right-to-asylum

https://www.dw.com/en/is-the-rise-in-internal-border-controls-ending-the-eu-dream/a-71054656
Asylum annual statistics

This is a map of the northern hemisphere as of today, but starting on January 1st, it will change to the following:

Congratulations to Romania and Bulgaria on joining the Schengen Area on January 1st. I hope more countries will join in the future.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/12/12/romania-and-bulgaria-are-granted-full-schengen-membership-with-one-caveat

I hope Ukraine will win the war in the next year and join NATO.

I hope Georgia will have a closely monitored election and elect a government that respects basic human rights, followed by joining NATO.

I hope Putin and the Ayatollah will be defeated.

I hope Israel and Palestine will have new elections and elect moderates into government for the first time since the early 1990s.

I hope Democrats win supermajorities in 2026, leading to the impeachment and removal of Donald Trump and JD Bowman.

Then, Schengen should be extended to North America, and eVisas between democracies should be abolished.

I hope we build a world more free and peaceful than has ever existed.

We are so close.

https://ourworldindata.org/literacy

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/mean-years-of-schooling-long-run

Data on literacy going back to the beginning of the Renaissance tells a very important story.

Main points:

• The United Kingdom and the Netherlands were the first countries to see a mass adoption of literacy in from 1550-1650.
• The United States had a high level of literacy from our founding. This is due to being founded by protestant refugees from Europe.
• Sweden started with almost no literacy in 1500 and exceeded the United Kingdom by 1800.
• Most people in Latin America stayed illiterate until the 20th century. We are now seeing a massive increase in their mean years of schooling, leading to economic and social development unparalleled in history.
• Literacy is essential to developing a modern economy. Literacy and education come first, then development occurs.
• Democracy and literacy are highly correlated.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/armed-groups-in-syria-carry-out-summary-executions-in-lataki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dachau_liberation_reprisals

Killing officers of a deposed despotic regime is not a war crime.

Over the last year, more Iranian military support has been diverted to Russia, reducing Iran’s ability to supply Assad.

Russia’s currency has collapsed quickly over the last few weeks, requiring more aid from Iran than ever before, which means less is available for Assad now than at any other point since 2011.

Biden has allowed Ukraine to finally strike Russian military targets, requiring Russian and Iranian aid to move towards the frontline in Ukraine. The Russian Ruble has collapsed as a result of this. https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c

Israel has been fighting Hamas and Hezbollah for over a year, but the situation has remained stable. Israel has been unable to rescue hostages and unable to convince Qatar to deport Hamas fighters. The situation in Gaza has been hell, but a stable hell. I do not believe Israel is why Assad fell today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_(2023%E2%80%93present)

However, Israel has been increasing its strikes against pro-Iranian fighters in Syria, which is what Netanyahu is talking about when he claims he is a major reason why Assad fell today. However, in Netanyahu’s address, he only talks about strikes near the border in the Golan Heights. Not everything is clear yet, and there will be more analysis coming soon as the facts gather on what transpired in Israel’s role in the fighting. Not all troop movements are clear to the public; neither is the firepower nor the exact strategy, and it will not remain completely clear for several months as the data is gathered. I expect Real Life Lore will make a thorough video on this historic event within a month, describing exactly how Assad collapsed in only a week after 14 years of war. It is truly an astounding event. There is currently a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, now in its 11th day, which has continued to hold. Netanyahu is claiming the ceasefire is the reason why Assad collapsed over a week. Perhaps, but actual military analysts need to investigate this one. My specialty is political economy. I want to know if the military experts agree with Netanyahu, and it’s too early to tell.

https://www.barrons.com/news/why-has-israel-increased-its-attacks-on-syria-729ec537

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/netanyahu-hails-historic-fall-of-bashar-assad-in-syria-credits-israeli-attacks-on-hezbollah-iran/ar-AA1vu1ld

I believe the main reason Assad has fallen is his support has dried up. The Russian Ruble has collapsed over the last month as their economy continues to collapse. Their inability to manufacture enough weapons for their invasion of Ukraine has caused them to be less able to support their puppet regimes elsewhere in the world. Iranian military support has been diverted to Russia, which, interestingly enough, has had almost no effect in Lebanon or Gaza but an extreme effect in Syria. The hostages have still not been recovered. Israel has followed up now by bombing Syrian scientific and records repositories today. Israel had 14 years to support the rebels in Syria, and they consistently refused. If Syria and Iran are strong supporters of Hamas, why wasn’t Israel involved sooner? It doesn’t add up.

There are three proposed causes of this victory:

• If the fall of Assad was due primarily to the Israeli war in Gaza, it would have been a steady burn from October 2023 to the present.
• If the fall of Assad was due to the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, it would have been a relatively faster burn starting in October.
• If the fall of Assad is due to the collapse of the Russian economy, the loss of territory would be rapid over the last few weeks as Russian and Iranian military support dries up, leaving the Assad regime defenseless.

I think it is fairly obvious Assad has seen his military support drying up over the last month as the Ruble has collapsed and Iranian weapons have shifted from supplying Assad to supporting Putin instead. The increased strikes in Russia due to the relaxing of restrictions by the Biden Administration have necessitated Iranian weapons to move from supplying Assad to supplying Russia instead. Assad has been left relatively defenseless, and the Syrians took the opportunity to depose their dictator.

It is fairly obvious this event occurred because Biden allowed Ukraine to strike Russia, causing a collapse of the Ruble and causing Iranian support to shift from Syria to Russia.

Hard data

The total number of Hezbollah fighters in Syria in February 2024 was no more than 8000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_factions_in_the_Syrian_civil_war#Opposing_forces https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/04597222.2024.2298594

The Syrian Armed Forces had over 160,000 troops in 2024, over 200 times the size of the Hezbollah force in Syria. Hezbollah fighters made up a little over 1% of the deaths from Assad’s allies. For comparison, British soldiers made up around 10% of fatalities from Afghanistan allied troops in the War against the Taliban.

Hezbollah was less important to the Syrian Civil War than the British were in Afghanistan. A minor partner.

Russia donated most of the equipment used by Assad’s army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Syrian_Army

Hamas has very little direct connection to the war.

Israel has little to do with it.

It is clear from the data from the deaths in the war that foreign mercenaries were not a major part of the war. Syrians composed over 95% of fatalities on all sides.

It is evident when we see the equipment used by Assad that Russia was his principal benefactor, with Iran in a distant second place. Syria was a vassal state of Russia from 1963 until this week.

Now, we have to see how the three remaining fronts of the Syrian Civil War can reach an agreement and cease fighting, creating a peaceful resolution to a thirteen-year-old conflict.

I will follow the rest of this story closely and expect a deeper analysis over the next month as military experts gather the facts.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-airstrikes-hit-security-complex-research-centre-in-damascus-sources-say/ar-AA1vuqZ0

Israel is deliberately bombing the record repositories of the Assad regime.

This is not what happens when an enemy power is defeated. This is what collaborators do when their crimes are about to become public.

This does not pass the most basic of sniff tests.

Cut off Netanyahu immediately.

I had to update this map since the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad has been ousted from power. Afghanistan is green because the Taliban lacks recognition from most countries in the world, is not the legitimate government of Afghanistan, Afghanistan still has membership in the United Nations, and is still an ally of the United States.

Biden needs to recognize the new government in Syria immediately, and the new legitimate government needs to take its place in the United Nations.

The list of Russian allies grows thin.

Let’s hope Syria evolves into a democratic state similar to what has occurred in Tunisia over the last decade. Currently, Tunisia is the only democracy in the Middle East, and I hope Syria will join them in becoming the second democratic Middle Eastern country.

Long live Syria.